ارزیابی اثر تاریخی تغییر اقلیم بر خطر بیابانزایی منطقه اسفراین-سبزوار (دوره مورد مطالعه: 2016-1979 میلادی)
الموضوعات :
اسماعیل سیلاخوری
1
(
دانشجوی دکتری تخصصی بیابانزدایی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان.
)
مجید اونق
2
(
استاد، گروه مدیریت مناطق بیابانی دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان. *(مسوول مکاتبات)
)
عبدالرسول سلمان ماهینی
3
(
استاد، گروه محیط زیست، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان
)
ایمان بابائیان
4
(
استادیار، گروه پژوهشی تغییر اقلیم، پژوهشکده اقلیم شناسی، سازمان هواشناسی کشور.
)
تاريخ الإرسال : 22 الأحد , ربيع الأول, 1439
تاريخ التأكيد : 10 الإثنين , ذو القعدة, 1439
تاريخ الإصدار : 17 الإثنين , ربيع الثاني, 1443
الکلمات المفتاحية:
داده‌های بازتحلیل,
مدل ESAs,
ERA-Interim,
NetCDF,
ملخص المقالة :
زمینه و هدف: در میان 37 چالش مهم جهانی؛ تغییر اقلیم، بیابانزایی و کمبود آب شیرین، سه چالش اصلی فَراروی بشر در قرن 21 محسوب می شوند. در این پژوهش از مدل ESAs در راستای ارزیابی اثر تغییرات اقلیم بر خطر بیابانزایی منطقه اسفراین- سبزوار در سه دوره 1992-1981، 2004- 1993 و 2016-2005 استفاده شد.روش بررسی: به دلیل آمار و پراکنش نامناسب ایستگاه های هواشناسی منطقه، از داده های بازتحلیل ERA-Interim و دوازده ایستگاه هواشناسی منطقه استفاده شد. داده های اقلیمی پروژه ERA-Interim برای منطقه اسفراینسبزوار به صورت 53 سلول به ابعاد 125/0×125/0 درجه در دسترس است. در گام اول با استفاده از رابط وب، کدهایPython و همچنینECMWF WebAPI، داده های اقلیمی روزانه برای دوره آماری 1979 تا 2016 دریافت و برای هر یک از سلول ها استخراج شد. داده های NetCDF دریافت شده با استفاده از نرم افزار ArcGIS برای 53 سلول به فرمت پایگاه داده خروجی گرفته شد و مورد طبقه بندی قرار گرفت. سپس تطابق داده های ERA-Interim با داده های دوازده ایستگاه هواشناسی در دوره 2016-2007 مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. اُریبی ماهانه به دست آمده به طور ماهانه به سال های فاقد آمار دیدبانی و سلول های فاقد ایستگاه هواشناسی اعمال شد و در نهایت با تصحیح اُریبی، داده های تلفیقی بارش برای 53 سلول استخراج شد. استمرار خشکسالی نیز با استفاده از نرم افزار R و شاخص SPI برای دوره مورد مطالعه محاسبه شد. پس از تهیه نقشه های پایه بارش، خشکی و خشکسالی برای سه دوره مورد مطالعه، با استفاده از ابزار مدل سازی GIS نقشه خطر بیابانزایی بر اساس مدل ESAs به دست آمد.یافته ها: نتایج نشان داد که استفاده از داده های تلفیقی (بازتحلیل و ایستگاهی) توانسته ضریب NSE را به 1 افزایش، bias را از 39/0 به 24/0 و RMSE را از 69/6 به 32/0 کاهش دهد. در دوره 36 ساله مورد مطالعه بارش به طور میانگین برای کل منطقه بیش از 10 میلی متر کاهش و دما نزدیک به دو درجه افزایش یافته است که اثرات این تغییر بر خطر بیابانزایی ارزیابی شد. به طوری که در دوره دوم کلاس F2 جای خود را به کلاس C1 و در دوره سوم کلاس C1 جای خود را به کلاس C3 داده است.
المصادر:
Mohammad moradi, A and Bahmani oskouie, F (2010). The Traditional B
Mohammad moradi, A and Bahmani oskouie, F (2010). The Traditional Bazaar of Crystallization of Contemporary Urban Idea, Designer Quarterly, Issue 2. (In Persian)
Biglari, E (1976). "Iranian Bazaars", in Art and People, 162, pp. 61-62. (In Persian)
Soltanzadeh, H (2004). Iranian Bazaars, Office of Cultural Research, Tehran. (In Persian)
Rajabi, A (2006). Bazaar morphology, Agah Publications, Tehran. (In Persian)
Abbas Zadegan, M. Azari, A (2009). Investigating the Spatial Role of the Bazaar in the Structure of Iranian Cities (Using Space Layout Method) Case Examples: Tehran, Tabriz, Kerman, Isfahan, Abadi, 64, 26-31. (In Persian)
Amirkhani, A. Baghai, P. Bemanian, MR (2009). A Study of the Transformation of Properties Ruling on Iranian Timachines in the Qajar Period, Fine Arts, 37, 39-48. (In Persian)
Sajadzadeh, H. Pirbabai, M.T (2012). The process of meaning occurrence in urban space, Armanshahr Architecture and Urban Development, 9, 177-186. (In Persian)
Soltanifard, H. et al. (2013). Analysis of metamorphosis of spatial physical structure of Iranian-Islamic city. Case study: Sabzevar city, Iranian-Islamic city studies, 14, 13-22. (In Persian)
Sajadzadeh, H. Haghi, MR (2014). A Comparative Comparison of Environmental Quality of Traditional Pavements and Traditional Bazaars, Case Study: Khordad Pavement and Old Tehran
Abbasi, Z. Habib, F. Mokhtab Amrii, M (2015). Developing Principles and Criteria for Spatial Perception in Iranian Traditional Bazaar Architecture, Urban Management, 39, 291-316. (In Persian)
Farsi Mohammadipour, A. Talebi, M (2015). Study of Sanandaj Traditional Bazaar Phenomenon from the Perspective of Phenomenology, Interdisciplinary Studies in Humanities, 7(3),27-61.
Dadvar, S. Danesh, F. Abbasi, Z (2016). Investigating the physical structure of the Bazaar as a vital element of the old urban context Case study: Kashan Bazaar, Urban Management, 44, 231-252.
Sadeghi, S. Saremi, H (2016). The Shape of Architecture of Iranian Bazaars from Qajar Period (From Yesterday's Traditional Bazaar to Today's Malls; Case Study of Tehran Mar Bazaars), Geography, Civil and Urban Management Studies, 2(4), 129-143. (In Persian)
Talai, A. Habib, F. Mokhtab Amrii, M (2017). Explaining the Semiotics of the Iranian Bazaar (Explaining and Developing a Method for Reading Architecture of the Bazaar), Urban Management, 9(3), 129-158. (In Persian)
Hakimian, P. Lak, A (1977). An Analysis of the Physical Integrity of the Historical Bazaar of the Iranian City, a Comparative Study of the Historical Bazaars of Kerman & Shiraz, Letter of Architecture and Urban Development, 23, 111-130. (In Persian)
Mehdi Nejad, J. Najari Nabari, R (2018). Evaluation of changes in the physical structure of traditional Bazaars based on Bazaar role in urban space Case study: Tabriz Bazaar, Andisheh Memari, 6,144-159. (In Persian)
Sojoodi, Farzan. 2008. Applied semiotics. Tehran: Nashr-e Elm. (In Persian)
Noghrekar, Abdolhamid, and Mohammadmanan Raeesi. 2011. “Semiological Analysis of Iranian Housing System Based on the Relationship between Text/Housing Layers.” Journal of Fine Arts, Architecture and Urban Planning. 46(2): 5‒14. (In Persian)
Namvar motlagh, Bahman (2016). Intertextuality from structuralism to postmodernism. Tehran: Sokhan Publishing. (In Persian)
Eco, Umberto (2003). Function and sign: The semiotics of architecture. In Rethinking Architecture – A reader in cultural theory, ed. N. Leach, 181‒202. London, New York: Routledge. (persian)
Chandler, D (2008). Fundamentals of Cinema Semiotics. Translated by Mehdi Parsa. Tehran: Surah Mehr Publications. (In Persian)
Pirnia, k (1993). Introduction to Islamic Architecture of Iran, Iran University of Science and Technology Publications, Tehran. (In Persian)
Habibi, Hassan (2010). The story of Tehran's big Bazaar, its Bazaar s and surrounding Bazaars in the last two hundred years, Project Manager: Shahram Yousefi far, Publisher of Iranology Foundation, Tehran. (In Persian)
Karimi, S (2008). Tehran Bazaar, Thought Publishing, Tehran. (In Persian)
Admate, Fereydoon (1969). Amir Kabir and Iran, Kharazmi, Tehran. (In Persian)
Haji Ghasemi, K (2004). Treasure Letter: The Culture of Islamic Architecture in Iran: Bazaar Buildings (Volume 2), Shahid Beheshti University Press. Tehran. (In Persian)
_||_
Mohammad moradi, A and Bahmani oskouie, F (2010). The Traditional Bazaar of Crystallization of Contemporary Urban Idea, Designer Quarterly, Issue 2. (In Persian)
Biglari, E (1976). "Iranian Bazaars", in Art and People, 162, pp. 61-62. (In Persian)
Soltanzadeh, H (2004). Iranian Bazaars, Office of Cultural Research, Tehran. (In Persian)
Rajabi, A (2006). Bazaar morphology, Agah Publications, Tehran. (In Persian)
Abbas Zadegan, M. Azari, A (2009). Investigating the Spatial Role of the Bazaar in the Structure of Iranian Cities (Using Space Layout Method) Case Examples: Tehran, Tabriz, Kerman, Isfahan, Abadi, 64, 26-31. (In Persian)
Amirkhani, A. Baghai, P. Bemanian, MR (2009). A Study of the Transformation of Properties Ruling on Iranian Timachines in the Qajar Period, Fine Arts, 37, 39-48. (In Persian)
Sajadzadeh, H. Pirbabai, M.T (2012). The process of meaning occurrence in urban space, Armanshahr Architecture and Urban Development, 9, 177-186. (In Persian)
Soltanifard, H. et al. (2013). Analysis of metamorphosis of spatial physical structure of Iranian-Islamic city. Case study: Sabzevar city, Iranian-Islamic city studies, 14, 13-22. (In Persian)
Sajadzadeh, H. Haghi, MR (2014). A Comparative Comparison of Environmental Quality of Traditional Pavements and Traditional Bazaars, Case Study: Khordad Pavement and Old Tehran
Abbasi, Z. Habib, F. Mokhtab Amrii, M (2015). Developing Principles and Criteria for Spatial Perception in Iranian Traditional Bazaar Architecture, Urban Management, 39, 291-316. (In Persian)
Farsi Mohammadipour, A. Talebi, M (2015). Study of Sanandaj Traditional Bazaar Phenomenon from the Perspective of Phenomenology, Interdisciplinary Studies in Humanities, 7(3),27-61.
Dadvar, S. Danesh, F. Abbasi, Z (2016). Investigating the physical structure of the Bazaar as a vital element of the old urban context Case study: Kashan Bazaar, Urban Management, 44, 231-252.
Sadeghi, S. Saremi, H (2016). The Shape of Architecture of Iranian Bazaars from Qajar Period (From Yesterday's Traditional Bazaar to Today's Malls; Case Study of Tehran Mar Bazaars), Geography, Civil and Urban Management Studies, 2(4), 129-143. (In Persian)
Talai, A. Habib, F. Mokhtab Amrii, M (2017). Explaining the Semiotics of the Iranian Bazaar (Explaining and Developing a Method for Reading Architecture of the Bazaar), Urban Management, 9(3), 129-158. (In Persian)
Hakimian, P. Lak, A (1977). An Analysis of the Physical Integrity of the Historical Bazaar of the Iranian City, a Comparative Study of the Historical Bazaars of Kerman & Shiraz, Letter of Architecture and Urban Development, 23, 111-130. (In Persian)
Mehdi Nejad, J. Najari Nabari, R (2018). Evaluation of changes in the physical structure of traditional Bazaars based on Bazaar role in urban space Case study: Tabriz Bazaar, Andisheh Memari, 6,144-159. (In Persian)
Sojoodi, Farzan. 2008. Applied semiotics. Tehran: Nashr-e Elm. (In Persian)
Noghrekar, Abdolhamid, and Mohammadmanan Raeesi. 2011. “Semiological Analysis of Iranian Housing System Based on the Relationship between Text/Housing Layers.” Journal of Fine Arts, Architecture and Urban Planning. 46(2): 5‒14. (In Persian)
Namvar motlagh, Bahman (2016). Intertextuality from structuralism to postmodernism. Tehran: Sokhan Publishing. (In Persian)
Eco, Umberto (2003). Function and sign: The semiotics of architecture. In Rethinking Architecture – A reader in cultural theory, ed. N. Leach, 181‒202. London, New York: Routledge. (persian)
Chandler, D (2008). Fundamentals of Cinema Semiotics. Translated by Mehdi Parsa. Tehran: Surah Mehr Publications. (In Persian)
Pirnia, k (1993). Introduction to Islamic Architecture of Iran, Iran University of Science and Technology Publications, Tehran. (In Persian)
Habibi, Hassan (2010). The story of Tehran's big Bazaar, its Bazaar s and surrounding Bazaars in the last two hundred years, Project Manager: Shahram Yousefi far, Publisher of Iranology Foundation, Tehran. (In Persian)
Karimi, S (2008). Tehran Bazaar, Thought Publishing, Tehran. (In Persian)
Admate, Fereydoon (1969). Amir Kabir and Iran, Kharazmi, Tehran. (In Persian)
Haji Ghasemi, K (2004). Treasure Letter: The Culture of Islamic Architecture in Iran: Bazaar Buildings (Volume 2), Shahid Beheshti University Press. Tehran. (In Persian)
