توسعه مدل های تلفیقی بردار پشتیبان فراابتکاری و تجزیه محور در پیش بینی تبخیر از مخزن سد (مطالعه موردی: سد دز)
الموضوعات :
رضا فرزاد
1
,
احمد شرافتی
2
,
فرشاد احمدی
3
,
سید عباس حسینی
4
1 - گروه عمران، واحد علوم و تحقيقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامي، تهران، ايران.
2 - گروه عمران، واحد علوم و تحقيقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامي، تهران، ايران.
3 - گروه هيدرولوژي و منابع آب، دانشگاه شهيد چمران اهواز، اهواز، ايران.
4 - گروه عمران، واحد علوم و تحقيقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامي، تهران، ايران.
الکلمات المفتاحية: پيش بيني تبخير, سد دز , مدل فراابتکاري, تابع موجک, مدل SVR,
ملخص المقالة :
مقدمه و هدف پژوهش: تبخير از درياچه و مخازن سدها و همچنين خاک، يکي از مهم ترين فرآيند‌ها در مهندسي هيدرولوژيکي محسوب ميشود. پيشبيني دقيق تبخير يکي از فرآيند‌هاي ضروري براي مديريت صحيح و کارآمد مخازن، منابع آب، پايداري حوضه و فعاليت‌هاي کشاورزي مي‌باشد. تبخير بطور کلي تحت تاثير فرآيند آب و هوايي غيرخطي، غير ثابت و تصادفي است. چنين عواملي بهوضوح مانع از راه اندازي مدل‌هاي پيشبيني دقيق ميشود. تبخير، فرآيندي طبيعي است که بر پايه تامين انرژي و تبادل هوا انجام ميشود و طي اين فرآيند مولکول‌ها و اتم‌ها انرژي لازم براي خارج شدن از فاز سيال و وارد شدن به فاز گاز را پيدا مي‌کنند. از طرفي تغييرات اقليمي مي‌تواند بر پارامتر تبخير تاثيرگذار باشند به همين منظور پيشبيني تبخير از مخازن سدها اهميت وافري در بحث مديريت منابع آب دارد.
روش ها: در اين تحقيق با استفاده از مدل‌هاي SVR-ABC، Wavelet-SVR ، SVM با استفاده از 6 تابع موجک به پيشبيني تبخير از مخزن سد دز در استان خوزستان، ايران پرداخته شده است. سري داده‌ها از سال 1396-1350 به مدت 46 سال متعلق به ايستگاه هواشناسي سد دز در ايران مي‌باشند. همچنين در اين تحقيق از پارامترهاي هواشناسي بارش، حداکثر درجه حرارت، حداقل درجه حرارت، ميانگين درجه حرارت، حداکثر مطلق درجه حرارت و حداقل مطلق درجه حرارت استفاده شده است و بر اساس نتايج آنروپي شانون 5 پارامتر Tmax، Tmin، Tave، Tamax، Taminبه عنوان تاثيرگذارترين پارامترها جهت سناريو‌بندي در 5 گروه به ترتيب با 1پارامتر، 2 پارامتر، 3 پارامتر، 4 پارامتر و 5 پارامتر تقسيم‌بندي مي‌شوند که مجموعا 28 سناريو مورد مطالعه قرار مي‌گيرند.
يافته ها: نتايج مدلسازيها بر اساس شاخص‌هاي ارزيابي RMSE ، MAE و WI نشان مي‌دهد که عملکرد مدل فراابتکاري SVR-ABC با مقدار RMSE برابر 219/82 ،MAE برابر 977/53 و WI برابر 815/0 بهتر از مدل Wavelet-SVR با RMSE برابر 637/93، MAE برابر 360/69 و WI برابر 762/0 مي‌باشد. همچنين بر اساس نمودار ويولني مدل منفرد SVR با ورودي‌هاي تناوبي و غير تناوبي تبخير ماهانه را کمتر از مقادير مشاهداتي برآورد نموده و در نتيجه ميانگين داده‌ها در مقايسه با مقادير مشاهداتي کاهش يافته است.
نتيجه گيري: همچنين نتايج 6 تابع موجک استفاده شده در تحقيق نشان مي‌دهد که مدل تجزيه محور Wavelet-SVR با تابع موجک haar با سطح تجزيه 1 با شاخص‌هاي ارزيابي RMSE، MAE و WI به ترتيب 637/93 ميليمتر بر ماه، 360/69 ميليمتر در ماه و 762/0 مناسبترين نتيجه را در بين توابع موجک 6 گانه نشان مي‌دهد.
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