کاربست ترکیبی رویکردهای فشار-حالت-پاسخ و برنامه‌ریزی راهبردی در مدیریت جامع و مشکل‌محور حوزه آبخیز میخ‌ساز در غرب مازندران
الموضوعات :زهرا ابراهیمی گت کش 1 , سید حمیدرضا صادقی 2
1 - دانشجوی دکتری علوم و مهندسی آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس.
2 - استاد، گروه مهندسی آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس.
الکلمات المفتاحية: مدیریت سازگار آبخیز, ماتریس برنامه‌ریزی راهبردی کمّی, برنامه‌ریزی استراتژیک, مدل‌سازی مفهومی,
ملخص المقالة :
زمینه و هدف: پروژه‌های آبخیزداری به‌منظور حفاظت از منابع پایه آب، خاک و پوشش گیاهی و تداوم تولید از طریق حفظ حاصلخیزی خاک و پایداری کشاورزی طراحی و اجرا می‌شوند، لذا شناخت صحیح مشکلات حوزه آبخیز، ضرورتی انکارناپذیر به‌منظور برنامه‌ریزی‌های آینده در خصوص طرح‌های اجرایی و مدیریت منابع طبیعی محسوب می‌شود و مدیریت مؤثر منابع طبیعی کشور و مهار تخریب آن‌ها مبتنی بر تبیین و اتخاذ ساختار و چارچوب منسجم برای شناسایی صحیح مشکلات حوزه آبخیز و تعیین راهبرد مناسب برای تعیین اقدامات اجرایی به‌عنوان یک رودیکرد نوظهور در مدیریت حوزه‌های آبخیز کشور ضروری است. لذا در پژوهش حاضر رویکرد الگویی کاربست ترکیبی رویکردهای فشار-حالت-پاسخ و برنامه‌ریزی راهبردی در مدیریت جامع و مشکل‌محور حوزه آبخیز میخ‌ساز استفاده شد.روش پژوهش: در این پژوهش، برای شناسایی مشکل حوزه آبخیز میخ‌ساز از مدل مفهومی PSR استفاده شد. معیارهای مناسب برای شناسایی مشکلات در چهار دسته عوامل اقلیمی، هیدورلوژی، انسانی و مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفتند. در همین راستا، شاخص‌ها و معیارهای تأثیرگذار بر حوزه آبخیز میخ‌ساز بعد از بررسی خودهمبستگی و هم‌خطی بین معیارها جمع‌بندی شد. به دلیل مختلف بودن منابع اطلاعاتی، همه داده ها به ترتیب برای معیارهای با اثر مثبت و منفی بر سلامت منطقه استاندارد شدند سپس از میانگین هندسی برای ترکیب شاخص‌های فشار-حالت-پاسخ برای هریک از زیر آبخیز ها استفاده شد و در نهایت مشکلات اصلی موجود در بخش‌های مختلف آبخیز بر اساس ارزش هر یک از عوامل مؤثر بر طبقه شناسایی شدند. هم‌چنین برای تعیین راهبرد مطلوب از روش تجزیه‌وتحلیل راهبردی کیفی و کمّی استفاده‌شده است. در مرحله بعد تحلیل‌های ارزیابی عوامل درونی و بیرونی پس از شناسایی قوت‌ها، ضعف‌ها، فرصت‌ها و تهدیدها، جدول درونی و بیرونی ایجاد و مورد تجزیه‌وتحلیل قرار گرفت. در نهایت تحلیل برنامه‌ریزی راهبردی کمی (QSPM) تهیه شد. سرانجام راهبردهایی برای مدیریت حوزه آبخیز میخ‌ساز ارائه شد.یافته‌ها: یافته‌ها نشان داد عمده مشکل حوزه آبخیز میخ‌ساز مربوط به محدودیت عمق خاک بوده که با تغییرات سطح کاربری اراضی و افزایش فرسایش ویژه، تشدید شده و باعث افزایش خسارت سیل می‌شود. لذا با دخالت عوامل انسانی، خصوصاً تغییر کاربری منجر به بروز مشکلات شده است. در میان معیارهای در نظر گرفته‌شده به ترتیب عمق خاک، تغییرات سطح کاربری و فرسایش وِیژه بدترین وضعیت را به ترتیب با امتیاز 40/0، 51/0 و 53/0 داشته که موجب ایجاد اختلال در عملکرد آبخیز میخ‌ساز شده اند. تمرکز بر مشکلات اصلی و تعیین‌کننده از اهمیت ویژه‌ای برخوردار است. هم‌چنین راهبرد مناسب ST می‌باشد. دست‌یابی به بیشینه بهره‌مندی از قوت‌ها و مزیت‌های درون بخشی برای مقابله با تهدیدها و آسیب‌های بیرونی و به کمینه رساندن آن‌هاست. هم‌چنین نتیجه تحلیل برنامه ریزی راهبردی کمّی نشان داد که ابتدا اولویت با راهبرد کاهش تخریب منابع و سپس راهبردهای کاهش مهاجرت موقت و دائم، افزایش درآمد خانوار و تقویت برنامه‌های حفاظت خاک و آب با نمرههای جذابیت به ترتیب 58/1، 52/1، 51/1 و 50/1 در اولویت‌های بعدی قرار می‌گیرد. لذا می‌توان با فرصت‌ها و قوت‌های موجود بر ضعف‌ها و تهدیدهای موجود در حوزه آبخیز مطالعاتی غلبه نمود.نتایج: پژوهش پیشِ‌رو باهدف شناخت مشکلات حوزه آبخیز میخ‌ساز در غرب مازندران با استفاده از مدل مفهومی فشار-حالت-پاسخ (PSR) و تعیین راهبرد مطلوب برای مدیریت مشکل با استفاده از تحلیل SWOT انجام گرفت. نتایج نشان داد مشکلات اصلی حوزه آبخیز میخ‌ساز به ترتیب شامل محدودیت عمق خاک، تغییرات سطح کاربری و فرسایش ویژه است. هم‌چنین نتیجه تحلیل برنامه ریزی راهبردی کمّی نشان داد که ابتدا اولویت با راهبرد کاهش تخریب منابع می‌باشد. نتایج حاصل از بررسی بر ضرورت لحاظ اقدامات اجرایی متناسب با نوع و اهمیت هر یک از عوامل مؤثر بر شاخص‌های مطالعاتی در حوزه آبخیز میخ‌ساز دلالت دارد. لذا راهبرد استفاده از مزیت های بالقوه موجود در فرصت‌های محیطی، باید برای جبران نقاط ضعف موجود در حوزه آبخیز مورداستفاده قرار گیرد.
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_||_Abyaa, H., Nasiri, M., Ebrahimi, M., Movaheda, A. (2015). Strategic planning for tourism industry using SWOT and QSPM. Management Science Letters, 5(3): 295-300
Afkhami, H. (2018). Provide appropriate management strategy using the QSPM-SWOT compilation model with the aim of organizing nomads (Case study: native tribe of ghoud of Arab-Taheri Tabas). Extension and Development of Watershed Management, 6(23): 40-50.
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Bohari, A.M., Wei Hin, C. Fuad, N. (2013). The competitiveness of halal food industry in Malaysia: a SWOT-ICT analysis. Journal of Society and Space, 9(1): 1–9.
Chang, H., Huang, W. (2006). Application of a quantification SWOT analytical method. Mathematical and Computer Modeling, 43: 158-169.
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Cui, J., Allan, A., Lin, D. (2019). SWOT analysis and development strategies for underground pedestrian systems. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, 87: 127-133
Department of the Interior, Washington, DC. 84 p. Wondolleck, J.M., Yaffe S.L. (2000). Making collaboration work: lessons from innovation in natural resource management, Island Press, Washington DC. 145 p.
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Divsalar, A., Shokri Firoozjah, P. Ferdoosi, S. (2017). Analyzing the strategies of rehabilitation of Shahrood River by SWOT.technique. Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 18(4): 43-65 (in Persian).
Ebrahimi, Z., Sadeghi S H R. (2021). Zoning and Health Analysis in Identifying the Problems of Mikhsaz Watershed in West Mazandaran. (2019). 15th National Conference on Watershed Management Science and Engineering of Iran, 6 and 7 November, Sari.
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