بررسی تأثیر انواع خدمات بهداشتی و درمانی بر رشد اقتصادی ایران با استفاده از روش هم انباشتگی یوهانسن - جوسیلیوس
الموضوعات :
ابراهیم قائد
1
,
محمد طاهر احمدی شادمهری
2
,
مژگان مرادی
3
,
محمدصادق محمدی
4
1 - دانشجوی دکتری رشته اقتصاد، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران
2 - دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران
3 - کارشناسی ارشد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه صنعتی شاهرود، شاهرود، ایران
4 - دانشجوی دکتری رشته اقتصاد، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران
الکلمات المفتاحية: روش یوهانسن - جوسیلیوس, تصحیح خطا, خدمات بهداشتی و درمانی, رشد اقتصادی,
ملخص المقالة :
مقدمه: یکی از مهمترین پارامترهای مؤثر در جهت ارتقای سطح تولید و رشد اقتصادی ایران نقش بخش خدمات بهداشتی و درمانی و شاخص‌های مربوط به آن است، در این زمینه بررسی‌های زیادی انجام شده است ولی تاثیر تفکیک همزمان انواع خدمات بهداشتی و درمانی بر رشد اقتصادی ایران بررسی صورت نگرفته است. لذا ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺖ اثرات شاخص‌های بهداشتی و درمانی ﻭ ﻧﻴﺎﺯﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ به آن، به سیاست‌گذاران حوزه بهداشت کمک می‌کند تا بدانند اثر کدام شاخص خدمات بهداشتی و درمانی بر رشد بیشتر است تا آن را جهت سرمایه گذاری در اولویت قرار دهند. هدف اصلی پژوهش، بررسی تأثیر انواع خدمات بهداشتی و درمانی بر رشد اقتصادی ایران است. روش پژوهش: این مطالعه از لحاظ روش علّی - تحلیلی و از نظر هدف؛ کاربردی بوده و روش جمع‌آوری اطلاعات نیز از نوع اسنادی کتابخانه‌ای است. برای تحلیل موضوع از الگوی خودتوضیح برداری، روش یوهانسن - جوسیلیوس و روش تصحیح خطا استفاده شد. داده‌های بدست آمده با استفاده از نرم افزار Eviews در طی دوره 1396-1360مورد تجزیه و تحلیل قرار گرفت.. یافته‌ها: یافته‌ها بر اساس ضریب جمله تصحیح خطا، حاکی از آن است که در هر دوره حدود 0/86 از عدم تعادل کوتاه مدت، برای رسیدن به تعادل بلندمدت، تعدیل می‌شود و می‌توان بیان داشت که در بلندمدت، یک درصد افزایش در متغیرهای نیروی کار، بهره‌وری نیروی کار، نرخ رشد جمعیت، نسبت سرمایه‌گذاری به تولید ناخالص داخلی و انواع خدمات بهداشتی و درمانی (هزینه بهداشت، هزینه درمان، هزینه آموزش و نسبت بیمه)، به ترتیب باعث افزایش0/67، 1/77، 0/88، 1/12، 5/43، 3/02، 4/85 و 2/09 درصد در رشد اقتصادی می‌شوند. نتیجه‌گیری: باتوجه به نتایج بدست آمده از پژوهش، از آنجا که هزینه بهداشت در مقایسه با سایرخدمات بهداشتی و درمانی بیشترین اثر را بر رشد اقتصادی دارد؛ می‌تواند به برنامه‌ریزان و سیاست‌گذاران کلان کشور کمک نماید تا نگاه خود را به نحوه تخصیص هزینه‌ها در بخش بهداشت کشور تغییر دهند و بهداشت را نوعی کالای سرمایه‌ای به حساب آورند و در این زمینه بیشتر سرمایه‌گذاری کنند تا باعث رشد اقتصادی و توسعه کشور درآینده شود.
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2- Hosseinpour A. The Impact of Export Growth on Economic Sector Growth of Iran [Ms.c Thesis]. Mazandaran: University of Mazandaran, School of Economics & Administrative Science; 2010. [In Persian]
3- Camba‐Mendez G, Kapetanios G, Smith RJ, Weale MR. An automatic leading indicator of economic activity: forecasting GDP growth for European countries. The Econometrics Journal. 2001 Jun; 4(1):S56-90. doi: 10.1111/1368-423X.00053
4- Fazaeli AA. Estimation of demand for health services [Ms.c Thesis]. Tehran: Allameh Tabatabaei University, School of Economic; 2002. [In Persian].
5- Fahimi AR. Estimation of medical care demand in Iran [Ms.c Thesis]. Tehran: Tehran University, School of Economic; 1994. [In Persian]
6- National Accounts Statistics Center of Iran.Retrieved From: www.Amar.Org.Ir
7- Bloom DE, Canning D, Sevilla J. The effect of health on economic growth: a production function approach. World development. 2004; 32(1):1-3. doi: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2003.07.002
8- Chakraborty S, Das M. Mortality, Human Capital and persistent inequality. Journal of Economic growth. 2005; 10(2): 159-92.
9- Li H, Huang L. Health, education, and economic growth in China: Empirical findings and implications. China Economic Review. 2009; 20(3): 374-87. doi: 10.1016/j.chieco.2008.05.001
10- Alam S, Sultana A, Butt MS. Does social expenditures promote economic growth? A multivariate panel counteraction analysis for Asian Countries. European Journal of Social Sciences, 2010; 14(1): 44-54.
11- Narayan S, Narayan PK, Mishra S. Investigating the relationship between health and economic growth: Empirical evidence from a panel of 5 Asian countries. Journal of Asian Economics, 2010; 21(4): 404-11. doi: 10.1016/j.asieco.2010.03.006
12- Hadian MO, Shojaee S, Rajabzadeh D. The Impact of health expenditure on the economic growth in IRAN (1980-2004). Journal of health administration, 2006; 9(24):39-44. [In Persian].
13- Salmani B, Mohammadi AR. Investigating effect of government health expenditure on Iran’s economic growth. Iranian Journal of Economic Research, 2009; 13(39): 73-93. [In Persian]
14- Asadi M, Nikooghadam M, Harati J. The Effect of Government Health Expenditures on Economic Growth in Selected Countries of Middle East & North Africa (MENA). Journal of Applied Economics, 2017; 7(21): 63-74. [In Persian]
15- Kweka JP, Morrissey O. Government spending and economic growth in Tanzania, 1965-1996. CREDIT Research Paper; 2000.
16- Blankenau WF, Simpson NB. Public education expenditures and growth. Journal of development economics, 2004; 73(2): 583-605. doi: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2003.05.004
17- Fölster S, Henrekson M. Growth effects of government expenditure and taxation in rich countries: a reply. European Economic Review, 2006; 50(1): 219-21. doi: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2005.02.007
18- Howitt P. Health, human capital, and economic growth: A Schumpeterian perspective. Health and economic growth: Findings and policy implications; 2005: 19-40.
19- Fatahi S, Soheil K, Reshadat S, Karimi P. The Relationship between Human Capital Health and Economic Growth in OPEC Countries (OPEC). Journal of Health Management, 2013; 3:37-51. [In Persian]
20- Andersen R, Newman JF. Societal and individual determinants of medical care utilization in the United States. The Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly. Health and Society, 1973; 51: 95-124. doi: 10.2307/3349613
21- Solow RM. A contribution to the theory of economic growth. The quarterly journal of economics, 1956; 70: 65-94. doi: 10.2307/1884513
22-Balia S, Jones AM. Mortality, lifestyle and socio-economic status. Journal of health economics, 2008; 27: 1-26. doi: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2007.03.001
23- Grossman M. On the concept of health capital and the demand for health. Journal of Political economy, 1972; 80: 223-55. doi: 10.1086/259880
24- Zhang Y, Wang R, Yao X. Assessing determinants of health care prepayment in China: Economic growth or government willingness? New evidence from the continuous wavelet analysis. The International journal of health planning and management, 2019; 34: 694-712. doi: 10.1002/hpm.2683
25- World Health Organization. WHO expert consultation on rabies: second report. World Health Organization; 2013.
26- Khanzadi A, Fatahi S, Moradi S. Analyzing the Effects of Public Sector Health and Treatment Expenditures on Economic Growth in Iran .Journal of the Macro and Strategic Policies, 2017; 5: 49-67. [In Persian]
27- Boussalem F, Boussalem Z, Taiba A. The relationship between public spending on health and economic growth in Algeria: Testing for co-integration and causality. International journal of business and management. 2014; 2(3):25.URL:http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sek:iacpro:0101004
28- Zuven M. Impact of Health Expenditure on Economic Growth: A Comparative Study of Developed and Developing Countries, 2014; 1: 1-44.
29- Segun OM, Adelowokan OA. Measuring the impact of public expenditure on economic growth in Nigeria. Journal of Social Science Studies, 2015; 2: 46-55. doi: 10.5296/jsss.v2i2.5626
30- Kouassi E, Akinkugbe O, Kutlo NO, Brou JB. Health expenditure and growth dynamics in the SADC region: Evidence from non-stationary panel data with cross section dependence and unobserved heterogeneity. International journal of health economics and management, 2018; 18: 47-66.
31- Isreal Akingba IO. Kaliappan SR, Hamzah HZ. Impact of health capital on economic growth in Singapore: an ARDL approach to cointegration. International Journal of Social Economics, 2018; 45: 340-56. doi: 10.1108/IJSE-12-2016-0376
32- Erçelik G. The relationship between health expenditure and economic growth in Turkey from 1980 to 2015. Journal of Politics Economy and Management, 2018; 1: 1-8.
33- Somé J, Pasali S, Kaboine M. Exploring the Impact of Healthcare on Economic Growth in Africa. Applied Economics and Finance, 2019; 6: 45-57. doi: 10.11114/aef.v6i3.4110
34- Olisakwe O. Public Health Expenditure, Economic Growth and Health Outcomes in Nigeria. Public Health, 2019; 6: 23-32. doi: 10.18488/journal.74.2019.61.23.32
35- Johansen S, Juselius K. Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 1990; 52(2): 169-210. doi: 10.1111/j.1468-0084 .1990.mp52002003.
36- Wenren C, Shang J, Pan J. Marginal conceptual predictive statistic for mixed model selection. Open Journal of Statistics, 2016; 6(2): 239-53.doi: 10.4236/ojs.2016.62021
37- Halada K, Shimada M, Ijima K. Forecasting of the Consumption of Metals up to 2050. Materials Transactions, 2008; 49(3): 402-10. doi: 10.2320/matertrans.ML200704
38- Kirchgässner G, Wolters J, Hassler U. Introduction to modern time series analysis. Springer Science & Business
Media; 2012.
39- Walter, E. Applied econometric time series. John Wiley & Sons; 2008.
40- Babaei MJ, Molaei MA, Dehghani A. Estimating the function of copper consumption in Iran Between 1991-2011 using Johansen model. Journal of Mining and Environment, 2015; 6(2): 183-9.
41- Babakhani M, Economic Development, Income Inequality and Health in Iran. Journal of Social Welfare, 2008; 7(28): 239-59. [In Persian]
42- Shojae SS, Jamali Gh, Manteghi, N. Identification of the Effective Elements on Human Resource Productivity. Journal of Research in Human Resources Management, 2016; 8 (24): 161-81. [In Persian]
43- Lotfalipour M, Falahi M, Borji M. The effects of Health Indices on Economic Growth in Iran. Journal of Management Health, 2012; 14 (46): 57-70. [In Persian]
44- Mojtahed A, Javadi pure S. Analysis of effect Health Ependiture on Economic Growth. Faslname‐ pajohesh ha ye eghtesadi, 2004; 6(19): 31‐54. [In Persian]
45- Rabiee M, Heidari S, Shariat Bahadori, M, Kani, S. The Impact of Health Indicators on Economic Growth: A case study of Developing and Developed countries. Journal of Economic, 2013; 13(7,8): 73-88. [In Persian]
46- Najjar Firoozjaee, M. The Position of the Insurance Industry in the Fnancing System. Journal of Economic, 2011; 11(5): 179-98. [In Persian]
47- Adu G. Studies on economic growth and inflation, 2012.
48- Cheong TS, Wu Y. Inequality and crime rates in China. University of Western Australia, Business School, Economics; 2013.
_||_1- Myrdal G. Political Element in the Development of Economic theory. Transaction Publishers; 1990.
2- Hosseinpour A. The Impact of Export Growth on Economic Sector Growth of Iran [Ms.c Thesis]. Mazandaran: University of Mazandaran, School of Economics & Administrative Science; 2010. [In Persian]
3- Camba‐Mendez G, Kapetanios G, Smith RJ, Weale MR. An automatic leading indicator of economic activity: forecasting GDP growth for European countries. The Econometrics Journal. 2001 Jun; 4(1):S56-90. doi: 10.1111/1368-423X.00053
4- Fazaeli AA. Estimation of demand for health services [Ms.c Thesis]. Tehran: Allameh Tabatabaei University, School of Economic; 2002. [In Persian].
5- Fahimi AR. Estimation of medical care demand in Iran [Ms.c Thesis]. Tehran: Tehran University, School of Economic; 1994. [In Persian]
6- National Accounts Statistics Center of Iran.Retrieved From: www.Amar.Org.Ir
7- Bloom DE, Canning D, Sevilla J. The effect of health on economic growth: a production function approach. World development. 2004; 32(1):1-3. doi: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2003.07.002
8- Chakraborty S, Das M. Mortality, Human Capital and persistent inequality. Journal of Economic growth. 2005; 10(2): 159-92.
9- Li H, Huang L. Health, education, and economic growth in China: Empirical findings and implications. China Economic Review. 2009; 20(3): 374-87. doi: 10.1016/j.chieco.2008.05.001
10- Alam S, Sultana A, Butt MS. Does social expenditures promote economic growth? A multivariate panel counteraction analysis for Asian Countries. European Journal of Social Sciences, 2010; 14(1): 44-54.
11- Narayan S, Narayan PK, Mishra S. Investigating the relationship between health and economic growth: Empirical evidence from a panel of 5 Asian countries. Journal of Asian Economics, 2010; 21(4): 404-11. doi: 10.1016/j.asieco.2010.03.006
12- Hadian MO, Shojaee S, Rajabzadeh D. The Impact of health expenditure on the economic growth in IRAN (1980-2004). Journal of health administration, 2006; 9(24):39-44. [In Persian].
13- Salmani B, Mohammadi AR. Investigating effect of government health expenditure on Iran’s economic growth. Iranian Journal of Economic Research, 2009; 13(39): 73-93. [In Persian]
14- Asadi M, Nikooghadam M, Harati J. The Effect of Government Health Expenditures on Economic Growth in Selected Countries of Middle East & North Africa (MENA). Journal of Applied Economics, 2017; 7(21): 63-74. [In Persian]
15- Kweka JP, Morrissey O. Government spending and economic growth in Tanzania, 1965-1996. CREDIT Research Paper; 2000.
16- Blankenau WF, Simpson NB. Public education expenditures and growth. Journal of development economics, 2004; 73(2): 583-605. doi: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2003.05.004
17- Fölster S, Henrekson M. Growth effects of government expenditure and taxation in rich countries: a reply. European Economic Review, 2006; 50(1): 219-21. doi: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2005.02.007
18- Howitt P. Health, human capital, and economic growth: A Schumpeterian perspective. Health and economic growth: Findings and policy implications; 2005: 19-40.
19- Fatahi S, Soheil K, Reshadat S, Karimi P. The Relationship between Human Capital Health and Economic Growth in OPEC Countries (OPEC). Journal of Health Management, 2013; 3:37-51. [In Persian]
20- Andersen R, Newman JF. Societal and individual determinants of medical care utilization in the United States. The Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly. Health and Society, 1973; 51: 95-124. doi: 10.2307/3349613
21- Solow RM. A contribution to the theory of economic growth. The quarterly journal of economics, 1956; 70: 65-94. doi: 10.2307/1884513
22-Balia S, Jones AM. Mortality, lifestyle and socio-economic status. Journal of health economics, 2008; 27: 1-26. doi: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2007.03.001
23- Grossman M. On the concept of health capital and the demand for health. Journal of Political economy, 1972; 80: 223-55. doi: 10.1086/259880
24- Zhang Y, Wang R, Yao X. Assessing determinants of health care prepayment in China: Economic growth or government willingness? New evidence from the continuous wavelet analysis. The International journal of health planning and management, 2019; 34: 694-712. doi: 10.1002/hpm.2683
25- World Health Organization. WHO expert consultation on rabies: second report. World Health Organization; 2013.
26- Khanzadi A, Fatahi S, Moradi S. Analyzing the Effects of Public Sector Health and Treatment Expenditures on Economic Growth in Iran .Journal of the Macro and Strategic Policies, 2017; 5: 49-67. [In Persian]
27- Boussalem F, Boussalem Z, Taiba A. The relationship between public spending on health and economic growth in Algeria: Testing for co-integration and causality. International journal of business and management. 2014; 2(3):25.URL:http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sek:iacpro:0101004
28- Zuven M. Impact of Health Expenditure on Economic Growth: A Comparative Study of Developed and Developing Countries, 2014; 1: 1-44.
29- Segun OM, Adelowokan OA. Measuring the impact of public expenditure on economic growth in Nigeria. Journal of Social Science Studies, 2015; 2: 46-55. doi: 10.5296/jsss.v2i2.5626
30- Kouassi E, Akinkugbe O, Kutlo NO, Brou JB. Health expenditure and growth dynamics in the SADC region: Evidence from non-stationary panel data with cross section dependence and unobserved heterogeneity. International journal of health economics and management, 2018; 18: 47-66.
31- Isreal Akingba IO. Kaliappan SR, Hamzah HZ. Impact of health capital on economic growth in Singapore: an ARDL approach to cointegration. International Journal of Social Economics, 2018; 45: 340-56. doi: 10.1108/IJSE-12-2016-0376
32- Erçelik G. The relationship between health expenditure and economic growth in Turkey from 1980 to 2015. Journal of Politics Economy and Management, 2018; 1: 1-8.
33- Somé J, Pasali S, Kaboine M. Exploring the Impact of Healthcare on Economic Growth in Africa. Applied Economics and Finance, 2019; 6: 45-57. doi: 10.11114/aef.v6i3.4110
34- Olisakwe O. Public Health Expenditure, Economic Growth and Health Outcomes in Nigeria. Public Health, 2019; 6: 23-32. doi: 10.18488/journal.74.2019.61.23.32
35- Johansen S, Juselius K. Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 1990; 52(2): 169-210. doi: 10.1111/j.1468-0084 .1990.mp52002003.
36- Wenren C, Shang J, Pan J. Marginal conceptual predictive statistic for mixed model selection. Open Journal of Statistics, 2016; 6(2): 239-53.doi: 10.4236/ojs.2016.62021
37- Halada K, Shimada M, Ijima K. Forecasting of the Consumption of Metals up to 2050. Materials Transactions, 2008; 49(3): 402-10. doi: 10.2320/matertrans.ML200704
38- Kirchgässner G, Wolters J, Hassler U. Introduction to modern time series analysis. Springer Science & Business
Media; 2012.
39- Walter, E. Applied econometric time series. John Wiley & Sons; 2008.
40- Babaei MJ, Molaei MA, Dehghani A. Estimating the function of copper consumption in Iran Between 1991-2011 using Johansen model. Journal of Mining and Environment, 2015; 6(2): 183-9.
41- Babakhani M, Economic Development, Income Inequality and Health in Iran. Journal of Social Welfare, 2008; 7(28): 239-59. [In Persian]
42- Shojae SS, Jamali Gh, Manteghi, N. Identification of the Effective Elements on Human Resource Productivity. Journal of Research in Human Resources Management, 2016; 8 (24): 161-81. [In Persian]
43- Lotfalipour M, Falahi M, Borji M. The effects of Health Indices on Economic Growth in Iran. Journal of Management Health, 2012; 14 (46): 57-70. [In Persian]
44- Mojtahed A, Javadi pure S. Analysis of effect Health Ependiture on Economic Growth. Faslname‐ pajohesh ha ye eghtesadi, 2004; 6(19): 31‐54. [In Persian]
45- Rabiee M, Heidari S, Shariat Bahadori, M, Kani, S. The Impact of Health Indicators on Economic Growth: A case study of Developing and Developed countries. Journal of Economic, 2013; 13(7,8): 73-88. [In Persian]
46- Najjar Firoozjaee, M. The Position of the Insurance Industry in the Fnancing System. Journal of Economic, 2011; 11(5): 179-98. [In Persian]
47- Adu G. Studies on economic growth and inflation, 2012.
48- Cheong TS, Wu Y. Inequality and crime rates in China. University of Western Australia, Business School, Economics; 2013.
