سیاست¬های حمایت کشاورزی و مسیر چرخه¬ای تکاملی رشد اقتصادی کشاورزی ایران
الموضوعات :
حمید محمدی
1
,
نرگس توکلی دستجردی
2
,
کوروش جوادی پاشاکی
3
,
علیرضا سرگزی
4
1 - دانشیارگروه اقتصادکشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی دانشگاه زابل،ایران
2 - دانشجوی دکترای اقتصادکشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی دانشگاه زابل، ایران
3 - دکترای اقتصاد کشاورزی و استاد مدعو، مدیرعامل شرکت آماری و پژوهشی شاخص نگار، تهران، ایران
4 - استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران
الکلمات المفتاحية: توسعه کشاورزی, چرخه اقتصاد کشاورزی, سیاست¬های کشاورزی,
ملخص المقالة :
هدف: سیاستهای حمایتی دولت نقش کلیدی در توسعه اقتصادی، اشتغالزایی و افزایش رقابتپذیری بخشهای مختلف اقتصادی ایفا میکند. به دلیل ماهیت ضعیف تولیدات کشاورزی، دولتها معمولاً سیاستهای حمایتی را برای حفظ امنیت غذایی اتخاذ میکنند. دولتها با فراهمسازی مشوقهای مالی و قانونی، میتوانند به کاهش ریسکهای اقتصادی کمک کنند و بستری امنتر و جذابتر برای سرمایهگذاران فراهم آورند.
مواد و روشها: از اینرو این مطالعه برای تشخیص رشد کشاورزی از سال 2001 تا 2018 تحت سیاستهای حمایتی کشاورزی ایران، از مدل غیرخطی MS(M)-AR(p) استفاده می‌شود تا چرخه اقتصاد کشاورزی ایران را به سه رژیم رشد سریع، متوسط و پایین متمایز شود. و احتمال جابجایی و نگهداری در بین رژیمهای مختلف بررسی کنیم. ما بیشتر میانگین مدت هر رژیم را محاسبه کردیم. علاوه بر این، ما انتقال رژیم رشد را برای زمان‌های خاص محاسبه کردیم.
یافتهها: براساس نتایج حاصله در این مطالعه، متوجه می‌شویم که اقتصاد کشاورزی ایران با حمایت از سیاستهای کشاورزی فعال ایران، روند رشد نسبتاً ثابتی را حفظ کرده است. با این حال، اقتصاد کشاورزی ایران در درازمدت تمایل به حفظ وضعیت رشد پایین دارد.
نتیجهگیری: در نهایت، ما بر اساس یافته‌های خود توصیه‌هایی برای توسعه کشاورزی ارائه می‌کنیم که سیاستهای کشاورزی موجود را ادامه می‌دهد و حمایت از کشاورزی، جنگل‌داری و دامداری را تقویت میکند.
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