تروریسم، فعالیت‌های نظامی و پایداری زیست‌محیطی در کشورهای خاورمیانه: رویکرد کوانتایل ARDL پانلی

الموضوعات : فصلنامه اقتصاد محاسباتی

ابوالقاسم گلخندان ¹

1 - لرستان، دانشگاه لرستان، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، گروه اقتصاد

تاريخ الإرسال : 26 الثلاثاء , شعبان, 1446 تاريخ التأكيد : 12 الأحد , ذو الحجة, 1446 تاريخ الإصدار : 21 الأربعاء , محرم, 1447

الکلمات المفتاحية: تروریسم, مخارج نظامی, ضریب ظرفیت بار, کوانتایل ARDL پانلی, کشورهای خاورمیانه.,

ملخص المقالة :

آلودگی محیط‌زیست و تروریسم دو مشکل اصلی جهان امروزی هستند. آلودگی محیط‌زیست تأثیرات شدیدی بر توسعه پایدار دارد. تروریسم نیز خطرات قابل‌توجهی برای ایمنی و رفاه افراد و جامعه در سطح جهان دارد. از طرفی، در پاسخ به شیوع تروریسم، دولت‌ها منابع مالی قابل‌توجهی را برای مبارزه با آن اختصاص می‌دهند که به افزایش هزینه‌های نظامی منجر خواهد شد. بر این اساس، مطالعه حاضر با پیوند دادن تغییرات اقلیمی با تروریسم و مخارج نظامی که از عوامل جدید و ناشناخته پایداری محیطی هستند، چشم‌اندازی منحصربه‌فرد در حوزه پایداری زیست‌محیطی کشورهای منطقه خاورمیانه ارائه می‌کند. در این راستا هدف اصلی مطالعه حاضر آزمون تجربی تأثیر شاخص جهانی تروریسم و مخارج نظامی بر ضریب ظرفیت بار (شاخص جامع و جدید پایداری زیست‌محیطی) در 8 کشور منطقه خاورمیانه طی بازه زمانی 2023-2011 است. به این منظور از برآوردگر کوانتایل ARDL پانلی و آزمون علیت پانلی دومیترسکو و هورلین (D-H) استفاده شده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که تأثیر کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت تروریسم بر پایداری زیست‌محیطی، در تمام کوانتایل‌ها (به جز کوانتایل پایانی)، منفی و معنادار و از لحاظ مقداری اندک است (75^th-10^th). همچنین، به مقدار شدت این اثرگذاری منفی در کوانتایل‌های بالایی افزوده می‌شود. تأثیر کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت مخارج نظامی  بر پایداری زیست‌محیطی نیز، در کوانتایل‌های 75^th-25^th منفی و معنادار است. بنابراین می‌توان گفت که تروریسم و فعالیت‌های نظامی، تهدیدی برای پایداری زیست‌محیطی محسوب می‌شوند. بر اساس نتایج آزمون علیت D-H می‌توان گفت که مخارج نظامی، تروریسم، رشد اقتصادی و تجارت از پیش‌بینی‌کنندگان پایداری زیست‌محیطی در کشورهای مورد مطالعه‌اند.

المصادر:


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