بررسی اجتماعی سیاسی و زیست محیطی رشد صنعتی ایران

الموضوعات : فصلنامه اقتصاد محاسباتی

محمد طاهری ¹ , کیا پارسا ² , ناصر میکائیل وند ³

1 - دانشجوی دکتری واحد تهران شمال
2 - تهران شمال
3 - Department of Mathematics, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

تاريخ الإرسال : 29 الإثنين , جمادى الثانية, 1446 تاريخ التأكيد : 24 الأحد , شعبان, 1446 تاريخ الإصدار : 10 الثلاثاء , شوال, 1446

الکلمات المفتاحية: تولید صنعتی, صادرات صنعتی, مولفه خطا 3 مرحله حداقل مربع, مدل داده‌های تابلویی همزمان, مهندسی سیستم‌های اجتماعی-اقتصادی.,

ملخص المقالة :

برای ارزیابی عملکرد زیرسیستم‌های صنعتی ایران از نظر اجتماعی (جینی)، سیاسی (دموکراسی)، محیطی (انتشار CO2) و ارزیابی عملکرد زیرسیستم‌های صنعتی ایران، یک سیستم داده‌های پانل همزمان معادلات ساخته و آن را با مولفه خطای 3SLS (با TSP و Eviews) تخمین زدیم. متغیرهای اقتصادی نتایج نشان می دهد که افزایش ارزش افزوده صنعتی منجر به آلودگی بیشتر (از نظر CO2) و تولید ناخالص داخلی نیز می شود، در حالی که افزایش ارزش افزوده و صادرات باعث کاهش ضریب جینی می شود. اما حتی افزایش دستمزدهای واقعی باعث افزایش جینی می شود. وقتی ضریب جینی افزایش یابد، دستمزد واقعی نیروی کار به شدت کاهش می یابد. افزایش نرخ تعرفه باعث افزایش تقاضا برای نیروی کار و صادرات و کاهش واردات زیربخش ها می شود و افزایش نرخ بهره باعث افزایش ارزش افزوده و صادرات می شود. همچنین نتایج نشان می‌دهد که انباشت سرمایه انسانی تأثیر مثبتی بر تولید و کاهش واردات زیربخش‌ها دارد. در مجموع می‌توان گفت که زیربخش‌های صنعتی که بر اساس کدهای 2 رقمی ISIC تعریف می‌شوند، مسیر توسعه بسیار پیچیده‌ای دارند که سیاست‌گذاران را برای برنامه‌ریزی یک سیاست صنعتی مطلوب برای اقتصاد و سایر بخش‌های آن با چالش‌های جدی مواجه می‌کند.

المصادر:

-Alaedini, P. and Ashrafzadeh, H.R. (2016). Iran’s Post-Revolutionary Social Justice Agenda and Its Outcomes: Evolution and Determinants of Income Distribution and Middle-Class Size. Economic Welfare and Inequality in Iran, 15-45. Retrieved from https:// doi.org/ 10.1057/978-1-349-95025-6_2/ (In Persian)
-Alsaleh, M., Abdul-Rahim, A.S. and Mohd-Shahwahid, H.O. (2017). An empirical and forecasting analysis of the bioenergy market in the EU28 region: Evidence from a panel data simultaneous equation model. Renewable and Sustainable Energy,80(12),1123-1137. Retrieved from https:// doi.org/ 10.1016/j.rser.2017.05.167/
-Ashrafi, y. (2002). Estimating the effects of trade policies on industrial exports. Journal of Economic Research and Policies, 10(21),71-98. (In Persian)
-Ashrafzadeh, S.H.R. and Asgari, M. (2006). The Effects of Trade and Exchange Rate Policies on Industrial Goods in Iran. Iranian Journal of Trade Studies (IJTS), 10(39), 83-108. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/7177/en/ (In Persian)
-Ashrafzadeh, S.H.R and Rahmani, M. (2015), The effects of monetary, fiscal, exchange rate, and trade policies on the export and employment of industrial sectors of Iran. Quarterly journal of Applied Economic studies Iran, 4(15),133-148. (In Persian)
-Bairam, E. (1990), Government size and Economic Growth: The African Experience 1960-85. Applied Economics, 22(10),1427-1435. Retrieved from https:// doi.org/ 10.1080/00036849000000113/
-Baltagi, Badi. H. and Liu, L. (2009). A note on the application of EC2SLS and EC3SLS estimators in panel data models. Statistics & Probability Letters,79(20),2189-2192.
Retrieved from https:// doi.org/10.1016/j.spl.2009.07.014/
-Baltagi, Badi. H. and Deng, Y. (2015). EC3SLS Estimator for a Simultaneous System of Spatial Autoregressive Equations with Random Effects. Econometric Reviews, 34(6-10), 659-694. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1080/07474938.2014.956030
-Baradaran, V. and Mohammadi, S.H. (2016). The Effects of Macroeconomic Variables on Industry Sub Sectors Value Added: An Econometrics Approach.
Journal of Trade Studies ,20(78) ,29-60. Retrieved from http://dor.isc.ac/
20.1001.1.17350794.1395.20.78.2.1/
-Behar, A. and Edwards, L. (2005). Estimating elasticities of demand and supply for South African manufactured exports using a vector error correction model. The Center for the study of African Economics, Working paper series paper 204, 1-16.
-Bernard, A.B., Bradford, B.J. and Schott, P.K. (2003). Falling Trade Costs, Heterogeneous Firms, and Industry Dynamics. National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Working Paper 9639. Retrieved from https://doi.org/ 10.2139/ssrn.392340/
-Enders, W. and Jun, M. (2011). Sources of the great moderation: A time-series analysis of GDP subsectors. Journal of economic Dynamics and control, 35(1),67-79. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2010.07.008/
-Esquivias, M. A. P. and Harianto, S.K. (2020). Does competition and foreign investment spur industrial efficiency? firm-level evidence from Indonesia. Heliyon, 6(8), 1-10. Retrieved from https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.heliyon. 2020.e04494/
-Falihi, N. and Amini, A. (2000). Study on the Effects of money volume and Banking Facilities On the supply and demand of labor force. the ninth conference of monetary and foreign exchange Policies, the Institute of money and Banking Research, Iran, Tehran.
-Hsiao, C. and, Zhou, Q. (2015) Statistical inference for panel dynamic simultaneous equations models. Journal of Econometrics,189(2),363-396. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2015.03.031/
-Jalali Naeini, S.A.R. and Nazifi, F. (2001). Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Shocks on Output. Iranian Journal of Economic Research,3(9),13-41. (In Persian)
-Landau, D. (1986). Government and Economic Growth in the Less Developed Countries: An Empirical Study for 1960-1980. Economic Development and Cultural change, 35(1),35-75.
-Lindauer, D. L. and Velenchik, A, D. (1992). Government spending in development countries: Trends, Causes and consequences. The world Bank Research observer, 7(1),59-78.
Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1093/wbro/7.1.59/
-Lundberg, M. and Squire, L. (2003). The simultaneous evolution of growth and inequality‏. The economic journal, 113(487) ,326-344. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0297.00127/
-Melitz, Marc J. (2003). The Impact of Trade on Intra‐Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity. Journal of the Econometric society,71(6),1695-1725.
-Moller, N. F. (2016). Energy Demand, Substitution and Environmental Taxation: An econometric analysis of eight subsectors of the Danish economy. Energy Economics,61,97-109.
Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.10.004/
-Nazari, M and Gouharian, F. (2002). The study on the effects of monetary policy variables on Employment of Main Economic sector in Iran (1345-1378), Journal of Economic Research,37(1),187-207. (In Persian)
-Ram, R. (1986). Government Size and Economic Growth: A New Framework and Some Evidence from Cross-Section and Time-Series Data. The American Economic Review, 76(1),191-203.
-Rodrick, D. (2005). Why we learn nothing from regressing economic growth on policies, Seoul Journal of Economics, 25(2),137-151.
-Shahbazi, K. and Karimzadeh, E. (2015). Impacts of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on Value Added of Industrial Sector in Iran in Line with the General Policies of the Industrial Sector. A Quarterly journal of Macro strategic policies, 2(8),93-110. (In Persian)
- Lin, X., Zhang, Y. and Zou, C. (2019). CO2 emission characteristics and reduction responsibility of industrial subsectors in China. Science of the Total Environment,699,134386.
Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134386/
-Yang, H., Zhengnan L., Xunpeng, S., Isaac, A. M., Yusen, L. and Weijian, C. (2021). Multi-region and multi-sector comparisons and analysis of industrial carbon productivity in China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 279, 123623. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.123623/
-Yang, K. and Lung-fei, L. (2019). Identification and Estimation of Spatial Dynamic Panel Simultaneous Equations Model. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 76, 32-46.
Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2018.07.010/
-Yeaple, S. R. (2005). A simple model of firm heterogeneity, international trade, and wages‏. Journal of international Economics, 65(1),1-20. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2004.01.001/