ارزيابي ميزان تأثير سطح خطر لرزه¬اي بر نرخ بيمة ریسک محور ساختمانها در برابر زلزله
الموضوعات : آنالیز سازه - زلزله
شاهرخ طافی
1
,
پوریا رشوند
2
,
مهدی مهدوی عادلی
3
,
سید امیرحسین هاشمی
4
1 - گروه مهندسی عمران، واحد قزوین، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، قزوین، ایران
2 - گروه مهندسی عمران، واحد قزوین، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، قزوین، ایران
3 - گروه مهندسی عمران، واحد تهران غرب، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
4 - گروه مهندسی عمران، واحد قزوین، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، قزوین، ایران
الکلمات المفتاحية: زلزله, بیمۀ ساختمانها در برابر زلزله, بیمۀ ریسک محور, سطح خطر زلزله, شتاب حداکثر زمین,
ملخص المقالة :
بواسطۀ عدم¬قطعیت¬های فراوان موجود در زلزله و بروز خرابی ساختمانها ناشی از آن، تعیین نرخ بیمۀ زلزله یکی از چالش¬برانگیزترین نوع بیمه¬ها می¬باشد و تابع متغیرهای مختلفی از جمله سطح خطر زلزله است. هدف از انجام تحقیق حاضر ارزيابي ميزان تأثير سطح خطر لرزه¬اي بر نرخ بيمة ریسک محور ساختمانها در برابر زلزله تعریف شده است. برای این منظور ابتدا یک چارچوب ریسک محور جهت محاسبۀ نرخ بیمۀ زلزله پایه¬ریزی گردید که در آن دو جز اصلی منحنی¬های خطر لرزه¬ای و منحنی¬های شکنندگی وجود داشت. جهت تعیین منحنی¬های خطر لرزه¬ای، با تعریف مدل لرزه¬خیزی شهر تهران و انجام یک تحلیل احتمالاتی خطر لرزه¬ای، این منحنی¬ها در سه سطح خطر لرزه¬ای کم، متوسط و زیاد تعیین شدند. جهت تعیین جزء دوم، یعنی منحنی¬های شکنندگی، پنج ساختمان هدف تحت اثر 120 عدد شتابنگاشت مورد تحلیل دینامیکی افزاینده قرار گرفت و منحنی¬های مدنظر تعیین گردید و در نهایت پانزده نرخ بیمۀ زلزله محاسبه گردید. بر اساس نتایج حاصل، تغییر سطح خطر زلزله از کم به متوسط و از متوسط به زیاد (که در آنها شتاب حداکثر زمین حدود 50% و 40% افزایش می¬یابد) سبب می¬گردد نرخ بیمۀ زلزله حدود 120% و 85% افزایش یابد. بطور کلی می¬توان پیشنهاد داد به هر میزان که سطح خطر زلزله بر حسب شتاب حداکثر زمین افزایش پیدا کند، نرخ بیمۀ زلزلۀ باید 2/2 برابر افزایش یابد که میزان افزایش بسیار قابل توجهی است و نشان می¬دهد دستورالعملهایی که نرخ بیمۀ زلزله را مستقل از سطح خطر لرزه¬ای پیشنهاد می¬دهند دچار خطای بسیار زیادی خواهند شد.
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