عوامل کلان اقتصادی، بیکاری و کسری بودجه؛ اثرات آستانه ای توسعه پایدار محیط زیست برای سیاست بازار انرژی
الموضوعات :محمد تقی زاده 1 , مرجان دامن کشیده 2 , هوشنگ مومنی وصالیان 3 , مجید افشاری راد 4
1 - گروه اقتصاد، واحد تهران مرکزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.
2 - گروه اقتصاد، واحد تهران مرکزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران. *(مسوول مکاتبات)
3 - گروه اقتصاد، واحد تهران مرکزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.
4 - گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران .
الکلمات المفتاحية: عوامل کلان اقتصادی, بیکاری, کسری بودجه, قیمت نفت, پایداری توسعه محیط زیست مدل رویکرد آستانهای.,
ملخص المقالة :
زمینه و هدف: امروزه نقش انكارناپذير توسعه محيط زيست در فعاليتهاي اقتصادي جوامع بشري سبب شده تا اصطلاح توسعه پايدار محیط زیست در ادبيات جهاني مطرح گردد. توسعه پايدار درك درست از تعامل در نظام به هم پيوسته فرايندهاي اقتصادي، اجتماعي زيست محيطي است. هدف مقاله حاضر بررسی عوامل کلان اقتصادی، بیکاری و کسری بودجه؛ اثرات آستانه ای توسعه پایدار محیط زیست برای سیاست بازار انرژی می باشد.
روش بررسی: برای این پژوهش از مدل با رویکرد آستانهای حد ملایم (STR) بر اساس داده‌های سالانه کشور ایران طی دوره 2022-1990 استفاده شد.
یافته ها: نتایج برآورد قسمت غیرخطی مدل نشان از این دارد که توسعه پایدار محیط زیست در مدل اول و سوم منجر به افزایش میزان صادرات نفت خام ایران و نرخ بیکاری شده است. در مدل دوم نیز، توسعه پایدار محیط زیست منجر به کاهش 4% کسری بودجه شده است. همچنین نتایج نشان از وجود رابطه مثبت متغیرهای اندازه دولت بعنوان شاخص ثبات سیاسی و اثرات سیاسی تحریم با میزان صادرات نفت خام ایران، کسری بودجه و بیکاری دارد. بطوریکه به ازای یک درصد افزایش در اندازه دولت و اثرات سیاسی تحریم، به ترتیب؛ 5%، 4% و 3% میزان صادرات نفت خام ایران، کسری بودجه و بیکاری افزایش داشته است.
بحث و نتیجه گیری: مطابق نتایج انتظار می‌رود دولت‌ها اقدام جدی را با اتخاذ تدابیر مناسب از جمله توسعه سرمایه‌گذاری خارجی جهت بستر سازی مناسب برای بهبود توسعه پایدار محیط زیست، نظارت دقیق بر اعتبارات اشتغال‌زایی و تسهیلات بر بخش خصوصی، زمینه‌سازی برای تشویق سرمایه‌گذاری بخش خصوصی و خارجی، از طریق ثبات سیاست‌ها و اندازه دولت و به‌طور‌کلی رفع موانع فضای کسب‌و‌کار در تعدیل نرخ بیکاری و کاهش کسری بودجه در راستای بهبود توسعه پایدار محیط زیست را به عمل آورند. همچنین توسعه بازار‌ها و واسطه‌های مالی با از بین بردن نا‌کارایی‌های بازار سرمایه و فراهم کردن فرصت‌های بیشتر برای افراد کم‌درآمد در جهت استقراض و ایجاد فرصت سرمایه‌گذاری برای افراد می‌تواند در زمینه بهبود نرخ بیکاری مفید باشد.
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