رفتار باروری زنان ایران همگام با فرایند تحولات خانواده در سه دههی گذشته
الموضوعات : فصلنامه زن و جامعه
بتول صیفوری
1
,
غلامرضا حسنی
2
,
علی اکبر مجدی
3
,
مهدی کرمانی
4
1 - دانشجوی دکتری جامعه شناسی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد.
2 - استادیار جمعیت شناسی دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد
3 - استادیار جامعه شناسی دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد.
4 - استادیار جامعه شناسی دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد.
الکلمات المفتاحية: خانواده, نرخ باروری, خانوار, تحولات خانواده,
ملخص المقالة :
در این مقاله تحولات مربوط به باروری زنان در خانواده از سال 1360 تا 1390 با استفاده از روش تحلیل ثانویهی آمار، اسناد و مدارک جمعیتی تحلیل شده است.نرخ رشد سالانه جمعیت کشور ایران در سال 1365 حدود 3.9% بوده که در سال 1390 به 1.3 درصد کاهش‌یافته؛ در چنین وضعیتی انتظار میرفت میزان رشد تعداد خانوارها متناسب با کاهش رشد جمعیت رو به افول بگذارد؛ درحالی‌که نرخ رشد سالانهی تعداد خانوارها در سالهای 1365 تا 75 حدود 2.51 درصد است که در مقایسه با سال 1390 حدود 3.89 درصد افزایش داشته است. همچنین آمار مربوط به بعد خانوار نیز طی این سه دهه به ترتیب از 5.11 به 4.05 و 3.54 کاهش یافته است. بر اساس نظریهی گذار جمعیتی دوم نشان از ورود ارزشهای مدرنیسم و مظاهر آن (فردگرایی، صنعتی شدن و شهرنشینی) نظیر خانوادهی تک والد، تک‌فرزند، زوج زیستی و همباشی در کنار رشد پدیدهی طلاق دارد. در حال حاضر خانوارهای دارای جمعیت 7 نفر به بالا با سهم 2 درصدی از کل جمعیت در حال محو شدن هستند، نرخ رشد خانوارهای 3 تا 4 نفره که نیمی از جمعیت ایران را تشکیل میدادند نیز رو به کاهش است و در مقابل خانوارهای تک‌نفره با سهم 7 درصدی در حال افزایش میباشند. میتوان نتیجه گرفت که طی سه دههی اخیر کاهش ترجیح باروری، میل به زندگی مجردی و تشکیل خانوارهای مستقل پیش از ازدواج در کنار عامل دیگری به نام طلاق باعث کاهش بُعد خانوار و افزایش تعداد خانوارها شده که نشان‌دهنده‌ی ورود ارزشهای مدرنیسم به عرصهی خانوادهی ایرانی است.
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