پهنه‌بندی تاب‌آوری شهر شیراز در برابر سیل با استفاده مدل VIKOR_AHP

الموضوعات :

محمد هادی فتاحی ¹ , محمد بهروزی ²

1 - گروه مهندسی عمران، واحد مرودشت، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مرودشت، ایران
2 - گروه مهندسی عمران، واحد مرودشت، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مرودشت، ایران

تاريخ الإرسال : 05 الأحد , ربيع الثاني, 1444 تاريخ التأكيد : 02 الثلاثاء , ربيع الثاني, 1445 تاريخ الإصدار : 08 الإثنين , ربيع الثاني, 1445

الکلمات المفتاحية: پهنه بندی, شیراز, سیل, تاب آوری, مدل Vikor_AHP,

ملخص المقالة :

چکیده
مقدمه: سیل در نواحی شهری به دلیل افزایش جمعیت با برنامه‌ریزی نامناسب کاربری زمین و تغییرات آب و هوایی در رویدادهای شدید بارندگی در حال افزایش است. خطرات سیل بیشترین جمعیت جهان (45 درصد) را در مقایسه با سایر بلایای طبیعی تحت تأثیر قرار داده و باعث 5424 مرگ ثبت‌شده بین سال‌های 2000 تا 2017 شده است و اگر قرار است شهرهای ما تاب آور باشند و بهتر بتوانند با پیامدهای سیل‌های شهری کنار بیایند، انتظار می‌رود که استراتژی‌های پایدار برای سازگاری با شرایط جدید اقلیمی و اجتماعی-اقتصادی اتخاذ کنند.  بر همین اساس هدف از این تحقیق ارزیابی تاب‌آوری شهر شیراز در برابر سیل است تا با شناسایی پهنه‌های تاب‌آوری کم اقدامات لازم را جهت افزایش تاب‌آوری آن‌ها انجام گردد.
روش­: روش تحقیق این پژوهش، توصیفی-تحلیلی و ازنظر هدف کاربردی است ابتدا بر اساس پیشینه تحقیق و پالایش متغیرها بر اساس شرایط محدوده مکان پژوهی درنهایت چهار بعد و 24 معیار ازجمله جمعیتی( 8 متغیر)، اقتصادی( 3 متغیر)، زیست محیطی ( 4 متغیر) و زیرساختی (9 متغیر) مشخص گردید.
یافته­ ها: جهت وزن دهی از روش تحلیل سلسله مراتبی استفاده شده که بیشترین وزن به دسترسی به زیرساخت های حیاتی برای اقدام و بازیابی با وزن 0.115 دارای بیشترین وزن بوده و از بین ابعاد هم بعد زیرساختی با وزن 0.395 دارای بیشترین وزن بوده است مقدرا CR مدل هم برابر 0.07 بوده که نشان از دقت قابل قبول مدل است. جهت پهنه‌بندی از مدل VIKOR استفاده شده که بر اساس خروجی مدل ازنظر مساحتی 9.92 درصد در پهنه با تاب‌آوری کم که که حدود 16.63 درصد از جمعیت شهر شیراز در این پهنه زندگی می کنند همچنین حدود 75.43 درصد از مساحت در پهنه با تاب‌آوری متوسط است که 74.56 درصد جمعیت نیز در آن ساکن است و پهنه با تاب‌آوری زیاد 14.65 درصد است که 8.81 درصد جمعیت شهر شیراز در آن زندگی می کنند.

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