کاربرد مدل هیدرولوژی - اقتصادی در مدیریت یکپارچه منابع آب حوضه آبریز جازموریان غربی
الموضوعات :
فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی
خدیجه ثمره هاشمی
1
,
احمدعلی کیخا
2
,
حسین مهرابی بشرآبادی
3
,
مصطفی مردانی نجف آبادی
4
,
سامان ضیائی
5
1 - دانشآموخته دکتری گروه اقتصادکشاورزی، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران
2 - دانشیار گروه اقتصادکشاورزی، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران
3 - استاد گروه اقتصادکشاورزی، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران
4 - دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان، ملاثانی، ایران
5 - دانشیار گروه اقتصادکشاورزی، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران
تاريخ الإرسال : 12 الجمعة , ربيع الثاني, 1442
تاريخ التأكيد : 07 الإثنين , شعبان, 1444
تاريخ الإصدار : 01 الجمعة , شوال, 1444
الکلمات المفتاحية:
استان کرمان,
بخش کشاورزی,
تخصیص آب,
بخش زیست محیطی,
منافع مصرف آب,
ملخص المقالة :
مقدمه و هدف: کمبود آب و تقاضای رو به رشد برای آن موجب ایجاد رقابت بر سر استفاده از این ماده گرانبها گردیده است؛ لذا بایستی درباره چگونگی تخصیص آن میان بخشهای مختلف اقتصادی، برنامهریزی صورت گیرد. هدف تخصیص آب میان کاربران مختلف حداکثرسازی فایدههای اجتماعی ناشی از مصرف آب است. مطالعهی حاضر با ارائه یک ساختار هیدرولوژی-اقتصادی در حوضه آبریز جازموریان غربی در پی حداکثرسازی منافع حاصل از استفاده آب در حوضهی مذکور میباشد.
مواد و روشها: برای این منظور، تابع هدف منافع مصرف آب در بخش کشاورزی، شرب و زیست محیطی مشروط به قیود هیدرولوژی، کشاورزی و نهادی را حداکثرسازی مینماید.
یافته ها: نتایج نشان داد با تغییر در الگوی کشت و تکنولوژی آبیاری، امکان افزایش منفعت در بخش کشاورزی تا 44 درصد منفعت جاری وجود دارد؛ این در حالی است که میزان مصرف آب در این بخش 11 درصد کاهش مییابد. علاوه براین با احتساب بخش زیست محیطی در برنامهریزی یکپارچه مدیریت منابع آب و اختصاص آب به تالاب جازموریان نیز منفعتی معادل 56260 میلیون ریال حاصل میشود.
بحث و نتیجه گیری: براساس نتایج در صورت بکارگیری الگوی کشت و استراتژیهای آبیاری پیشنهادی مدل، امکان افزایش سود در کنار کاهش آب مصرفی در بخش کشاورزی وجود دارد که آب صرفهجویی شده میتواند در سایر بخشهای رقیب مورد استفاده قرار گیرد و منافعی ایجاد نماید یا اینکه موجب کاهش مصرف آبهای زیرزمینی گردد که به پایداری منابع آبی کمک مینماید.
المصادر:
Biswas AK, Tortajada C. Water crisis and water wars: myths and realities. International Journal of Water Resources Development. 2019; 35: 727-731. DOI: 1080/07900627.2019.1636502
Daneshgar H, Bagheri M, Mardani Najafabadi M, Alijani F, Yavari G. Effects of climate change on hydrological and economic conditions of Bushkan plain farmers. Agricultural Economics Research. 2021; 13(2): 259-280. DOI: 1001.1.20086407.1400.13.2.13.4
Kalbali E, Ziaee S, Mardani Najafabadi M, Zakerinia M. Approaches to adapting to impacts of climate change in northern Iran: The application of a Hydrogy-Economics model. Journal of Cleaner Production. 2021; 280, 124067. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.124067
Mohamadjani A, Yazdanian N. Analysis of the water crisis in the country and its management requirements. Ravand Quarterly. 2014; 21(65):117-144. https://www.cbi.ir/simplelist/12869.aspx
Kavand H, Ziaee S, Mardani Najafabadi M. Assessing the Consequences of Internalization of the Side Effects of Water Pollution on the Quantitative and Qualitative Management of Zayandehroud Basin. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development. 2020; 34(3): 356-341. DOI: 22067/jead2.vi0.86889
Zarghami M, Saffari N. Optimal allocation of water to the agricultural sector of Zarrineh Rud basin using Asymmetrical Nash method. Agricultural Economics. 2013; 7(2): 107-125. http://www.iranianjae.ir/article_9270.html?lang=en
Mardani Najafabadi M, Ziaee S, Nikouei A, Ahmadpour Borazjani M. Mathematical programming model (MMP) for optimization of regional cropping patterns decisions: A case study. Agricultural Systems. 2019; 173: 218-232. DOI:1016/j.agsy.2019.02.006
Yousefi A, Hassan-Zade M, Keramat-Zade A. The welfare effect of water market allocation in iranian economy. Iran Water Resources Research. 2014; 10(1): 15-25. http://www.iwrr.ir/article_13414.html?lang=en
Mardani M, Ziaei S, Nikouei A. Optimizing the trade of virtual water in regional cropping pattern of the Isfahan province: application of multi-criteria models. Agricultural Economics and Development. 2018; 25(100): 59-88. DOI: 30490/aead.2018.60994
Jofreh M, Alizadeh S. The study of market's role in water resource optimal allocation. Journal of Financial Economics (Financial Economics and Development). 2009; 2(8):79-95. DOI: 1001.1.25383833.1388.3.8.4.9
Shirzadi S, Mardani Najafabadi M, Shahnazari A. Water Consumption and Distribution Management in Tajan Irrigation and Drainage Network with Emphasis on Water Resource Sustainability. Journal of Water Research in Agriculture. 2020; 33(4): 673-689. https://doi.org/10.22092/jwra.2020.121246
Ministry of Agriculture Jihad. Agricultural Statistics. 2018. Available at http://www.maj.ir/
Ministry of Energy. Report of recognizing grade 2 Hamoon-Jazmourian basin, Iran water resources Management Company. 2016. Regional water Company of Kerman.
Dinar A, Nigatu GS. Distributional considerations of international water resources under externality: The case of Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt on the Blue Nile. Water Resources and Economics. 2013; 2-3: 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wre.2013.07.001
Mirkarimi Sh, Amirnejad H, Joolaie R. Integration of Core and Uncertainty Bankruptcy Methods for Optimal Allocation of Gorganrod-Gharahso Basin. Agricultural Economics. 2020; 13(4): 104-126. DOI: 22034/iaes.2020.118653.1745
Philpot SL, Peter A, Johnson K, Hipel W. Analysis of a brownfield management conflict in Canada. Hydrological Research Letters. 2017; 11(3):141- 148. https://doi.org/10.3178/hrl.11.141
Kehkha AA, Mosanan Mozafari M. Optimal allocation of well water reservoirs to the agricultural sector Sistan using Stochastic dynamic programming. Agricultural Economics. 2014; 8(1): 47-62. http://www.iranianjae.ir/article_8918.html
Ghahraman b, Sepaskhah A. Management of dam reservoirs. Iran Water Resources Research. 2003; 2(1): 1-15. http://www.iwrr.ir/article_15078.html?lang=en
Zhao T, Cai X, Yang D. Effect of streamflow forecast uncertainty on real time reservoir operation. Advances in Water resourses. 2011; 34:495-504. DOI:1016/j.advwatres.2011.01.004
Heidecke Heckelei T. The impact of water pricing in an arid river basin in Morocco considering the conjunctive use of ground- and surface water, water quality aspects and climate change. P. 85-89. Paper presented at the Conference of the Global Catchment Initiative (GCI) on the Global Dimensions of Change in River Basins, 6-8 Dec. 2010, Bonn, Germany.
Varela-Ortega C, Blanco-Gutiérrez I, Swartz CH, Downing TE. Balancing groundwater conservation and rural livelihoods under water and climate uncertainties: An integrated hydro-economic modeling framework. Global Environmental Change.2011; 21(2): 604-619. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.12.001
Luwesi CN, Shisanya CA, Obando JA. Hydro-economic inventory for sustainable livelihood in Kenyan ASALs: The case of Muooni Catchment. J Agir Food Appl Sci. 2013; 1: 46-55.
Blanco-Gutiérrez I, Varela-Ortega C, Purkey DR. Integrated assessment of policy interventions for promoting sustainable irrigation in semi-arid environments: A hydro-economic modeling approach. Journal of environmental management. 2013; 128: 144-160. DOI:1016/j.jenvman.2013.04.037
Hérivaux C, Orban P, Brouyère S. Is it worth protecting groundwater from diffuse pollution with agri-environmental schemes? A hydro-economic modeling approach. Journal of environmental management. 2013; 128: 62-74. DOI:1016/j.jenvman.2013.04.058
Salman D, Amer SA, Ward F. Protecting food security when facing uncertain climate: Opportunities for Afghan communities. Journal of Hydrology. 2017; 554: 200-215. DOI:1016/j.jhydrol.2017.09.015
Mirchi A, Watkins DW, Engel V, Sukop Mc, Czajkowski J, Bhat M, Rehage J, Letson D, Takatsuka Y, Weisskoff A hydro-economic model of South Florida water resources system. Science of The Total Environment. 2018; 628–629: 1531-1541. DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.111
Kragt M. Hydro-economic modelling in an uncertain world: Integrating costs and benefits of water quality management. Water Resources and Economics. 2013; 4: 1-21. DOI:1016/j.wre.2013.11.001
Amin A, Iqbal J, Asghar A, Ribbe L. Analysis of Current and Future Water Demands in the Upper Indus Basin under IPCC Climate and Socio-Economic Scenarios Using a Hydro-Economic WEAP Model. Water. 2018; 10(5): 537. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10050537.
Borrego-Marín M, Expósito A, Berbel J. A Simplified Hydro-Economic Model of Guadalquivir River Basin for Analysis of Water-Pricing Scenarios. Water. 2020; 12(7): 1879. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12071879.
George B, Malano H, Davidson B, Hellegers P, Bharati L, Massuel S. An integrated hydro-economic modelling framework to evaluate water allocation strategies I: Model development. Agricultural water management. 2011; 98(5): 733-746. DOI:1016/j.agwat.2010.12.004
Nikouei AR, Zibaei M. Water resources management and food security in zayandeh rud basin: an integrated river basin analysis. Journal of economics and agriculture development. 2012; 26(3): 183-196. DOI:22067/jead2.v1391i3.17775
Rafiei Darani H, Kohansal MR, Ghorbani M, Sabouhi M. Hydro-economic modeling in the analysis of water resources management strategies: neyshabur catchment. Agricultural Economics and Development. 2017; 25(99): 41-77.
Rajabi D, Mousavi SF, Roozbahani A. Optimal water allocation among the irrigation districts in zayandehrud basin with economic approach and performance assessment of water distribution within the district (case study: north-rudasht irrigation district). Iran Water Resources Research. 2018; 14 (5):291-303. http://www.iwrr.ir/article_66796.html?lang=en
Mirzaei A, Zibaei M. Water conflict management between agriculture and wetland under climate change: application of economic-hydrological-behavioral modelling. Water Resources Management. 2021; 35(1): 1-21. DOI:1007/s11269-020-02703-4
Salehi Rezaabadi F, Salarpour M, Mardani M, Ziaei S. Economic Impact Assessment of Quantity and Quality Changes in Irrigation Water on Agriculture in Kerman Province. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development. 2020; 33(4): 395-412 DOI: 22067/jead2.v33i4.84119
Cai XM, McKinney DC, Lasdon LS. Integrated hydrologic agronomic economic model for river basin management. Water Resources Planning and Management. 2003; 129(1): 4-17. DOI:1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2003)129:1(4)
Kahil MT, Dinar A, Albiac J. Modeling water scarcity and droughts for policy adaptation to climate change in arid and semiarid regions. Journal of Hydrology. 2015; 522: 95-109. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.12.042
Gürlük S, Ward FA. Integrated basin management: water and food policy options for Turkey. Ecological Economics. 2009; 68(10): 2666-2678. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2009.05.001
Nikouei A, Zibaei M, Ward FA. Incentives to adopt irrigation water saving measures for wetlands preservation: an integrated basin scale analysis. Journal of hydrology. 2012; 464: 216-232. DOI:1016/j.jhydrol.2012.07.013
Turner K, Van den Bergh J, Söderqvist T, Barendregt A, van der Straaten J, Maltby E, van Ierland E. Ecological-economic analysis of wetlands: scientific integration for management and policy. Ecological Economics. 2000; 35: 7-23.
Mirzaei A, Zibaei M. Estimation of economic benefits of Jazmourian wetland rehabilitation and preservation programs. Agricultural Economics Research. 2020; 11(1): 53-80. DOI: 1001.1.20086407.1398.11.41.4.9
Ward FA, Pulido-Velazquez M. Efficiency, equity, and sustainability in a water quantity–quality optimization model in the Rio Grande basin. Ecological economics. 2008; 66(1): 23-37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2007.08.018
Banihabib ME, Zahraei A, Eslamian S. An integrated optimisiation model of reservoir and irrigation system applying uniform deficit irrigation. Journal of hydrology science and technology. 2015; 5(4): 234-256. DOI:1504/IJHST.2015.072636
_||_