شاخص‌هایی برای سرمایه طبیعی: روند تغییرات و پیش‌بینی
الموضوعات : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزیعلیرضا کشاورز 1 , زکریا فرج زاده 2 , محمدحسن طرازکار 3
1 - دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد بخش اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز.
2 - استادیار بخش اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز.
3 - استادیار بخش اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز.
الکلمات المفتاحية: پیش‌بینی, ردپای اکولوژیکی, ظرفیت اکولوژیکی, تناسب اکولوژیکی- اقتصادی,
ملخص المقالة :
این مطالعه با هدف معرفی، تحلیل روند و ارزیابی امکان پیش‌بینی این شاخص‌ها در اقتصاد ایران انجام شد. برای این منظور از داده-های سری‌زمانی دوره 94-1359 استفاده شد. شاخص‌های معرفی‌شده برای سرمایه طبیعی شامل ردپای اکولوژیکی، ظرفیت اکولوژیکی، تنش اکولوژیکی، تصرف اکولوژیکی و تناسب اکولوژیکی- اقتصادی می‌باشد. یافته‌ها نشان داد، شاخص ردپای اکولوژیکی به‌عنوان مهم-ترین شاخص، در دوره منتخب سالانه بیش از ۲ درصد رشد داشته است. در میان اجزای این شاخص نیز بیش‌ترین سهم مربوط به انتشار دی‌اکسیدکربن بود. درحالی که مشخص گردید شاخص ظرفیت اکولوژیکی در دوره مطالعه کاهش داشته و پایین‌تر از ردپای اکولوژیکی قرار گرفته است؛ به نحوی که کسری اکولوژیکی ایجاد شده است. هم-چنین شاخص تنش اکولوژیکی نشان داد، در مجموع خدمات دریافتی از طبیعت و محیط‌زیست فراتر از توان آن و بالاتر از متوسط جهانی بوده؛ به نحوی که موجب افزایش ناامنی اکولوژیکی شده است. هم‌چنین نتایج حاصل از پیش-بینی نشان داد، دقت پیش‌بینی مدل شبکه عصبی مصنوعی بالاتر از مدل سری‌زمانی ARMA می‌باشد و امکان پیش-بینی اغلب شاخص‌های منتخب با خطای کمتر از 3 درصد وجود دارد.
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