ارزیابی اثر ساختار جمعیتی بر انتشار گاز دی‌اکسید کربن در ایران

الموضوعات : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

قاسم لیانی سنگ نیشتی ¹ , نوید کارگر ده بیدی ² , فاطمه فتحی ³

1 - دانشکده کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز
2 - دانشجو
3 - گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز

تاريخ الإرسال : 15 السبت , ذو القعدة, 1439 تاريخ التأكيد : 19 الأحد , ذو الحجة, 1441 تاريخ الإصدار : 07 الأربعاء , جمادى الثانية, 1442

الکلمات المفتاحية: ایران, ARDL, ساختار جمعیتی, انتشار گاز دی‌اکسید کربن,

ملخص المقالة :

ساختار جمعیتی در ایران همچون سایر مناطق دنیا، در حال تغییر است. این تغییرات با کاهش سهم کودکان و افزایش سهم افراد مسن از جمعیت کل همراه است به گونه‌ای که بر اساس پیش‌بینی‌های سازمان ملل از سال 2015 تا 2030 جمعیت افراد مسن در ایران دو برابر خواهد شد. از این رو هدف اصلی این مطالعه بررسی اثر ساختار جمعیتی بر انتشار آلودگی ناشی از گاز دی اکسید کربن در ایران در طی دوره 1350 الی 1394 می‌باشد. در این پژوهش با توجه به نتایج ایستایی متغیرها از روش هم‌جمعی در قالب رهیافت خود رگرسیونی با وقفه‌های گسترده (ARDL) استفاده شده است. نتایج پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که به ترتیب دو بازه جمعیتی (64-15) و (14-0) سال تاثیر بالایی بر سرانه انتشار گاز CO2 دارند، درحالی که جمعیت سالخوردگی (65 سال به بالا) اثرگذاری کمتری در انتشار گاز CO2 دارد.

المصادر:

- Ahmad, A. Zhao, Y. Shahbaz, M. Bano, S. Zhang, Z. Wang, S. & Liu, Y. (2016). Carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth: An aggregate and disaggregate analysis of the Indian economy. Energy Policy, 96, 131-143.

- Al-Mulali, U. & Ozturk, I. (2015). The effect of energy consumption, urbanization, trade openness, industrial output, and the political stability on the environmental degradation in the MENA (Middle East and North African) region. Energy, 84, 382-389.

- Anamradnejad, R. (2015). Evaluation of quantitative and qualitative characteristics of housing in Iran during the years 1390-1345. Urban Research and Planing, 6(20): 35-50.

- Bastanifar, I. & Sameti, M. (2004). An inquiry of green tax effect on decreasing of air pollution of Isfahan products in Isfahan Province. GIAN and International Symposium and Workshop Isfahan University, 14-18,.271-282.

- Cole, M. A. & Neumayer, E. (2004). Examining the impact of demographic factors on air pollution. Population & environment, 26(1), 5-21.

- Dalton, M. B. O'Neill, A. Prskawetz, Jiang, L. & Pitkin, J. (2008). Population aging and future carbon emissions in the United States, Energy Economics, 30, 642–675.

- Fan, Y. Liu, L. C. Wu, G. & Wei, Y. M. (2006). Analyzing impact factors of CO₂ emissions using the STIRPAT model. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 26(4), 377-395.

- Gujarati, D. N. (2009). Basic econometrics. Tata McGraw-Hill Education.

- Halicioglu, F. (2009). An econometric study of CO₂ emissions, energy consumption, income and foreign trade in Turkey. Energy Policy, 37(3), 1156-1164.

- Hassan, K., & Salim, R. (2015). Population ageing, income growth and CO₂ emission: Empirical evidence from high income OECD countries. Journal of Economic Studies, 42(1), 54-67.

- Kasman, A., & Duman, Y. S. (2015). CO₂ emissions, economic growth, energy consumption, trade and urbanization in new EU member and candidate countries: a panel data analysis. Economic Modelling, 44, 97-103.

- Liddle, B. (2004). Demographic dynamics and per capita environmental impact: Using panel regressions and household decompositions to examine population and transport. Population and Environment, 26(1), 23–39.

- Liddle, B. (2011). Consumption-driven environmental impact and age-structure change in OECD countries: A cointegration-STIRPAT analysis. Demographic Research, 24(30), 749–770.

- Liddle, B. (2014). Impact of Population, age structure and urbanization on carbon emissions/energy consumption: evidence from macro- level, cross-country analyses; Population and Environment, 35, 286- 304.

- Liddle, B. & Lung, S. (2010). Age structure, urbanization, and climate change in developed countries: Revisiting STIRPAT for disaggregated population and consumption–related environmental impacts. Population and Environment, 31, 317–343.

- Magazzino, C. (2016). CO₂ emissions, economic growth, and energy use in the Middle East countries: A panel VAR approach. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 11(10), 960-968.

- Meng, X. & Han, J. (2018). Roads, economy, population density, and CO₂: A city-scaled causality analysis. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 128, 508-515.

- Mikayilov, J. I. Galeotti, M. & Hasanov, F. J. (2018). The Impact of Economic Growth on CO2 Emissions in Azerbaijan (No. 102). IEFE, Center for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy, Universita'Bocconi, Milano, Italy.

- Mohammad Bagheri, A. (2010). Investigating the short-term and long-term relationships between GDP, energy consumption and carbon dioxide emisshions in Iran. Energy Economics Studies, 7(27):101-129.

- Moradhasel, N. & Mazini, A. (2008). Assessing the role of government in Iran's environmental changes (environmental economics approach). Environmental Science and Technology, 4: 11-24.

- Okada, A. (2012). Is an increased elderly population related to decrease CO₂ emissions from road transportation? Energy Policy, 45, 286–292.

- Pesaran, H.M. & pesaran, B. (1997). Working with Microfit 4.0: An Introduction to Econometrics, Oxford University Press, Oxford.

- Pesaran, H.M. & Shin, Y. (1998). An autoregressive distributed lag modeling approach to cointegration analysis, In (Ed) S. Storm. The Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century, Chapter II. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

- Pesaran, M. H. Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.

- Poumanyvong, P. & Kaneko, S. (2010). Does urbanization lead to less energy use and lower CO₂ emissions? A cross-country analysis. Ecological Economics, 70(2), 434-444.

- Shahbaz, M. Loganathan, N. Muzaffar, A. T. Ahmed, K. & Jabran, M. A. (2016). How urbanization affects CO₂ emissions in Malaysia? The application of STIRPAT model. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 57, 83-93.

- Shi, A. (2003). The impact of population pressure on global carbon dioxide emissions, 1975–1996: evidence from pooled cross-country data. Ecological Economics, 44(1), 29-42.

- Shrestha, M. B. & Chowdhury, K. (2005). ARDL modelling approach to testing the financial liberalization hypothesis. Research Online: University of Wollongong.

- Siddiki, J. U. (2000). Demand for money in Bangladesh: A cointegration analysis. Applied Economics, 32(15), 1977-1984.

- Statistical Center of Iran. (2018). http://amar.sci.org.ir

- United Nations. (2015). Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. World Population Ageing 2015 (ST/ESA/SER.A/390).

- Wang, S. X., Fu, Y. B., & Zhang, Z. G. (2015). Population growth and the environmental Kuznets curve. China Economic Review, 36, 146-165.

- Wei, Y.M. Liu, L.C. & Fan, Y. (2008). China Energy Report (2008): CO₂ Emissions Research. Science Press, Beijing.

- Yang, Y. Zhao, T. Wang, Y. & Shi, Z. (2015). Research on impacts of population-related factors on carbon emissions in Beijing from 1984 to 2012. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 55, 45-53.

- Ying, F. Liu, L.C. Wu, G. Wei, Y.M. (2006). Analyzing impact factors of CO₂ emissions using the STIRPAT model. Environ Impact Assess Rev 26, 377–395.

- York, R. (2007). Demographic trends and energy consumption in European Union Nations (1960–2025), Social Science Research, 36, 855–872.

- York, R. Rosa, E. A. & Dietz, T. (2002). Bridging environmental science with environmental policy: Plasticity of population, affluence, and technology. Social Science Quarterly, 83(1), 18-34.