تحلیل درماندگی مالی در بخش کشاورزی و مواد غذایی با تأکید بر نقش متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی و حسابداری

الموضوعات : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

سید حسام وقفی ¹ (عضو هیات علمی دانشگاه)
زهره حیدری ² (هیات علمی گروه حسابداری، دانشگاه کوثربجنورد، بجنورد، ایران)
سامیران خواجه زاده ³ (دکتری مهندسی مالی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی شهر قدس)
صدیقه کامران راد ⁴ (عضو هیئت علمی دانشگاه پیام نور،تهران،ایران.)

تاريخ الإرسال : 29 الخميس , جمادى الأولى, 1439 تاريخ التأكيد : 22 الجمعة , رمضان, 1441 تاريخ الإصدار : 05 الخميس , ربيع الأول, 1442

الکلمات المفتاحية: الگوریتم آدابوست, طبقه‌بندی احتمالی بیز, درماندگی مالی,

ملخص المقالة :

تحلیل درماندگی مالی و تعیین احتمال درمانده شدن قبل از بروز درماندگی موضوعی بااهمیت برای سرمایه‌گذاران، اعتباردهندگان و مدیران می‌باشد. در این پژوهش با استفاده از اطلاعات شش سال مالی طی دوره 1390 الی 1395 در بخش کشاورزی و مواد غذایی به بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر درماندگی مالی و پیش‌بینی آن با استفاده از الگوریتم آدابوست و طبقه‌بندی احتمالی بیز پرداخته‌شده است. از تأثیر مستقیم تورم، ریسک مالی و تأثیر معکوس نسبت مدیران غیرموظف، بازده سالانه سهام و نسبت وجه نقد عملیاتی بر درماندگی مالی می‎باشد. همچنین نتایج نشان می‌دهد که الگوریتم تقویت انطباقی آدابوست با استفاده از داده‌های مالی و اقتصادی توانایی بالاتری نسبت به روش طبقه‎بندی احتمالی بیز در پیش‌بینی درماندگی مالی دارد. نتایج این تحقیق می‌تواند به‌صورت کاربردی موردتوجه مدیران بخش کشاورزی و مواد غذایی بورس اوراق بهادار تهران قرار گیرد که با پیش‌بینی درماندگی مالی در شرکت‌ها و کار کردن بر روی عوامل مؤثر بر آن، نسبت به مدیریت کردن جذب سرمایه سهامداران، کاهش ریسک بحران‌های مالی و کمک به سرمایه‌گذاران جهت اجتناب از زیان‌های بزرگ در بازار سهام، اقدام نمایند.

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