ارزیابی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر تولید محصولات باغی با رویکرد تولید تصادفی مورد پژوهی : محصول خرما
الموضوعات : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزیندا علی احمدی 1 , محمود هاشمی تبار 2 , سید مهدی حسینی 3
1 - دانشکده علوم محیط زیستی و کشاورزی پایدار،دانشگان سیستان و بلوچستان،ایران، زاهدان
2 - استادیار دانشکده علوم زیست محیطی و کشاورزی پایدار،دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان،زاهدان
3 - استادیار دانشکده علوم زیست محیطی و کشاورزی پایدار،دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان،زاهدان
الکلمات المفتاحية: کشاورزی, تغییر اقلیم, ریسک, مدل جاست و پاپ, عملکرد خرما,
ملخص المقالة :
در این مطالعه برای ارزیابی اثر تغییرات اقلیم بر عملکرد و ریسک تولید محصول خرما در ایران از پارامترهای اقلیمی در مناطق گرم و مرطوب و گرم و خشک در بازه‌ی زمانی 95-1361 استفاده شد. ق تابع تولیدتصادفی جاست و پاپ برآوردگردید. نتایج شاخص‌های دما و بارش به ترتیب برای منطقه گرم و مرطوب 45/0 و 66/0 و منطقه گرم و خشک 04/3 و 18/0 می باشد که نشان دهنده اثرگذاری منطقه‌ای هستند. تغییرات سالانه آب و هوایی،باعث ایجاد شرایط نامساعد برای کشاورزان شد. تغییرات دمای حدی سالیانه و تغییرات نامنظم بارشی در طول سال‌های گذشته و همچنین تغییر اقلیم و گرم شدن هوا در آینده می‌تواند خطرات جدی برای کاهش محصول در بخش کشاورزی در پی داشته باشد. با توجه به تغییرات نابهنگام دما و بارش در مناطق گرم و خشک و گرم و مرطوب توصیه می‌شود که به منظور کاهش ریسک عملکرد خرما در این مناطق از از ارقام مقاوم خرما نسبت به تغییرات دمایی و بارشی استفاده شود.
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