اثر نوسان نرخ ارز بر صادرات صنایع غذایی ایران(رهیافت پانل دیتا)

الموضوعات : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

امه هانی موسوی خالدی ¹ , ابوالقاسم مرتضوی ² , صادق خلیلیان ³

1 - دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
2 - تربیت مدرس
3 - دانشیار

تاريخ الإرسال : 23 الإثنين , شوال, 1438 تاريخ التأكيد : 17 الأحد , جمادى الأولى, 1441 تاريخ الإصدار : 25 الأحد , ربيع الثاني, 1441

الکلمات المفتاحية: نوسان نرخ ارز, صادرات صنایع غذایی ایران, پانل ARDL,

ملخص المقالة :

توسعه صادرات غیرنفتی به‌خصوص کالاهای صنعتی به‌عنوان یکی از راهبردهای توسعه اقتصادی، یک تعیین‌کننده اصلی در راستای افزایش توان تولیدی، اشتغال و تأمین درآمدهای ارزی برای سرمایه‌گذاری در فناوری‌های نو محسوب می‌شود. ازجمله عوامل مؤثر بر صادرات غیرنفتی، نرخ ارز و ریسک ناشی از نوسانات غیرمنتظره آن است، این پژوهش به ارزیابی اثر نوسانات نرخ ارز بر صادرات صنایع غذایی ایران به‌عنوان حلقه تکمیلی زنجیره کشاورزی در دوره زمانی 1394-1380 با استفاده از رویکرد پانل دیتا پرداخته است. برای بررسی اثر نوسان نرخ ارز بر صادرات صنایع غذایی از تکنیک ARDL پانل استفاده‌شده است. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد در بلندمدت و کوتاه‌مدت بین صادرات صنایع غذایی و متغیرهای در نظر گرفته‌شده رابطه معنی‌داری وجود دارد و نوسان نرخ ارز در بلندمدت با مقدار ضریب 96/6تأثیر منفی بر صادرات صنایع غذایی داشته است. توصیه می‌گردد با ایجاد محیط باثبات اقتصادی و ارائه اطلاعات شفاف درباره‌ روند تغییرات نرخ ارز، ابزارهای پولی و مالی جهت تأمین ریسک نرخ ارز صادرکنندگان به کار گرفته شود.

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