مدلسازی و تحلیل عوامل مؤثر بر وقوع جرم در مناطق حاشیهنشینِ شهر کاشان
الموضوعات :
فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای
محسن شاطریان
1
,
رسول حیدری
2
,
محمود شاطریان
3
,
کامران دولتیاران
4
1 - استاد گروه جغرافیا و اکوتوریسم، دانشگاه کاشان، کاشان، ایران
2 - استادیار گروه جغرافیا و اکوتوریسم، دانشگاه کاشان، کاشان، ایران
3 - استادیار گروه حقوق، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه کاشان، کاشان، ایران
4 - کارشناس ارشد جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، دانشگاه کاشان، کاشان، ایران
تاريخ الإرسال : 08 الأربعاء , صفر, 1440
تاريخ التأكيد : 19 الجمعة , صفر, 1441
تاريخ الإصدار : 27 الإثنين , شعبان, 1441
الکلمات المفتاحية:
معادلات ساختاری,
جرم,
حاشیهنشینی,
آزمون تی,
شهر کاشان,
ملخص المقالة :
امروزه عوامل و عناصر متنوعی در بروز آسیبهای اجتماعی و جرائم در شهرها اثرگذارند، حاشیهنشینی و اسکان غیررسمی از چالشهای مهم ناشی از فقر فرهنگی و اقتصادی و عصر جهانیشدن میباشد که درشدت بخشیدن به آسیبهای اجتماعی اهمیت بسزایی دارد، بهطوریکه میتوان گفت حاشیهنشینی و جرم علت و معلول یکدیگرند. هدف پژوهش حاضر بررسی و تحلیل عوامل مؤثر بر وقوع جرائم در مناطق حاشیهنشین شهر کاشان میباشد. روش تحقیق توصیفی- تحلیلی و دارای ماهیتی کاربردی میباشد. حجم نمونه با استفاده از نرم افزار Sample Power 160 پرسشنامه برآورد گردید. برای تجزیهوتحلیل توصیفی و استنباطی دادهها از آزمون آماری T-Test در نرمافزار SPSS و جهت تبیین و مدلسازی اثرات نیز از مدلسازی معادلات ساختاری در نرمافزار AMOS استفاده شد. نتایج حاصل از آزمون T تک نمونهای نمایانگر معنیدار بودن اثرات اجتماعی، اقتصادی، فرهنگی و کالبدی با وقوع جرم در محلات حاشیهنشین دارد. تحلیل یافتههای منتج از مدلسازی معادلات ساختاری بیانگر این است که از بین شاخصهای موردسنجش شاخص اجتماعی بیشترین بار عاملی را با وزن رگرسیونی (87/0) و مقدار خطای (000/0) P value = در وقوع جرائم به خود اختصاص داده است.
المصادر:
Adel, H., Salheen, M., & Mahmoud, R. A. (2015): Crime in relation to urban design. Case study: The Greater Cairo Region. Ain Shams Engineering Journal.
Alavi, Moussa (2013): "Structural Equation Modeling in Health Sciences Education Research Introduction and its Application", Iranian Journal of Medical Education, Volume 13, Number 6, pp. 530-519. (In persian)
Amaldam, S. (2011): Housing in third world; Annual Report of World Bank. P 4.
Anderson, J. and J.M. MacDonald, and R. Bluthenthal, and S Ashwood, (2013): Reducing crime by shaping the built environment with zoning: An empirical study of Los Angeles. University of Pennsylvania Law Review, 161, 699–756.
Bane.R.and Rawal. A. slums. A case study of Anand city. (2002): Available. at; www. I boro. as uk /wedc /papers
Barzegar, Sadegh, Heidari, Taghi, Anbarloo Alireza (1396): "Analysis of Informal Settlements with a Biodiversity Approach", Case Study of Zanjan Informal Settlements, Regional Planning Research, Ninth Year, No. 33, pp. 137-152(In persian) .
Bayat, Bahram (2015): >> Analysis of Damages and Crimes in Suburbs of Tehran <<, Social Security Studies Quarterly, No. 4, pp. 20-1. (In persian)
Boshaq, Mohammad Reza, (2015): << Structural Equation Modeling in the Humanities >> 22, AMOS, Tehran, Sociology Publications. (In persian)
Buonanno, P., Fergusson, L. and Vargas, F. J. (2014): The Crime Kuznets Curve, Serie Documentos De Trabajo, No. 155.
Ceccato, V., & Lukyte, N. (2011): Safety and sustainability in a city in transition: the case of Vilnius, Lithuania. Cities, 28 (1), 83-94.
Dougherty, R. G. (2015): Social Disorganization, Extra-Curricular Activities, and Delinquency.Electronic Theses and Dissertations.Paper 2476. http://dc.etsu.edu/etd/2476.
Hatami Nejad, Hossein, Mehdi, Ali, Bahmani Mahdian, Masoumeh (2014): "Attitude toward crime and committing crime in the suburbs of Shad Gholi Khan neighborhood of Qom", Geographical Research Quarterly, Vol. , Pp. 240-221. (In persian)
Hatami Nejad, Hossein, Hatami Nejad, Hojjat, Farabi Asl, Nir, Sabet Koushaki Nian, Mojtaba, Fawadi, Fatemeh (2012): "Geographical Analysis on the Physical Impact of Urban Areas on Crime", Case Study: Informal Settlements Mashhad, Journal of Regional Planning, Second Year, No. 7, pp. 65-75. (In persian)
Hillier, Bill and Ozlem Sahbaz, (2010): High Resolution Analysis of Crime Patterns in Urban Street Networks: an initial statistical sketch from an ongoing study of a London borough, University College London, UK.
Esfajir Abbasi, Ali Asghar, Victim of the Principle of Valiyallah (2016): << The Role of Social Components in Prevention of Urban Crime (Robbery and Drugs) >>, Case Study of Sari District Three Cities, Journal of Urban Sociological Studies, Volume 6, Number 20 Pp. 186-157.(In persian)
Golchin, Masoud, Sabaheddin, Mafakheri (1396): "Studying the crime rate in the neighborhoods of Tehran and its effect on the trust of the interpersonal relationships of citizens", Urban Sociological Studies Quarterly, Eighth Year, No. 25, pp. 140- 117. (In persian)
Goodarzi, Majid, Malaei, Maryam, Abdollahi, Masood (2016): << An Analysis of Urban Tourism Spaces in New Cities with a Sense of Women's Security >> Case Study: Baharestan New City, Regional Planning Journal, Sixth Year , No. 22, pp. 97- 108. (In persian)
Hirschfield, A. and M. Birkin, C. Brunsdon, and N. Malleson, and A. Newton, (2014): How Places Influence Crime: The Impact of Surrounding Areas on Neighborhood Burglary Rates in a British City, urban studies, 51 (5), pp.1057-1072.
Jonathan G. Allen, B.A. (2010): Assessing the Effects of Social Disorganization on Crime in Texas Border Counties: A Time-Series Cross-Sectional Analysis Fom 1990 to 2007, Master of Science, Graduate Council of Texas State University-San Marcos, San Marcos, Texas.
Kajalo, S. and A. Lindblom, (2015): Creating a safe and pleasant shopping environment: A retailer's view. Property Management, 33(3), 275–286.
Keri B. Burchfield (2009): Attachment as a source of informal social control in urban neighborhoods, Journal of Criminal Justice 37 :45 –54.
Kiani Salmi, Sedigheh, Boshaq, Mohammadreza (2016): "Explaining the Effects of the Waterfowl Festival from the Perspective of Local Residents", Journal of Tourism Management Studies, Volume 11, Number 34, pp. 92-65. (In persian)
Kirschkamp, A. (2008): Contingency-Based View of Chief Executive Officers Early Warning Behavior. Gabler (GWV).
Kruger, T. (2012): Safer by design- towards effective crime prevention through environmental design in South Africa, CSIR, Pretoria, Vol, 12, PP 211-294
Lahmian, Reza (1396): "Investigating the Relationship between Design and Redesign of Urban Spaces and Crime Occurrence", Case Study: Babol, Journal of Regional Planning, Seventh Year, No. 25, pp. 166-155. (In persian)
Lockwood, B.; Groff, E.B.; Rengert, G.; Grunwald, H.E. (2014): The relationship between social distance and treatment attrition for juvenile offenders, The Journal of Urban Affairs, Vol. 37, No. 4, 462–477.
Louderback, E. R. (2015): Social Disorganization, Institutional Anomie and the Geographic Patterning of Instrumental Crime: ProgressTowards an Integrated Theory.Open Access Theses. Vol, 16, NO. 21, 510-549.
Martınez, Javier, Gora Mboupb, Richard Sliuzasa and Alfred Steina. (2008): Trends in urban and slum indicators across developing world cities, 1990–2003. Habitat International, Vol 32, pp 86–108.
Mohseni, Reza Ali, Nosrati Payani, Ezzatollah (2014): >> The Relationship of City to Crime and Social Injuries <<, Gorgan City Law Enforcement Affairs Second Year, No. 7. Pages 138-113. (In persian)
Mohsin, Shahriar, Esfidani, Mohammad Rahim (1396): << Structural Equations Based on Partial Least Squares Approach with CD (Educational and Practical Software) with CD >> Second Edition, Tehran, Mehraban. (In persian)
Noonan, George A. (2017): A spatial analysis of the relationship between violent neighborhood crime rates and alternative gentrification indicators in Louisville, KY (2010-2016). (2017): Electronic Theses and Dissertations.Paper: 26-44 https://doi.org/10.18297/etd/2644
Ortiz, R. (2016). War on Drugs: Examining the Effects on Social Disorganization and Crime in Cities. In BS Master’s Theses and Projects.Item 42.
Salimi, Zahra (2016): "Assessment and Evaluation of Physical Resilience of Wasted Textures Against Earthquake", (Case Study: Central Tissue Locations of Bushehr City) M.Sc., Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, Kashan University. (In persian)
Sanati Sharghi, Nader, Rouhollah Vahidi, Hamidi, Soheil (2016): "Structural Analysis of the Relationship between Suburbia and Crime", Ninth Year Social Discipline Research Quarterly, No. 3, pp. 82-58. (In persian)
Swatt, M. Varano, S. Uchida, C. Solomon, S. (2013): "Fear of Crime, Incivilities, and Collective Efficacy in four Miami", Journal of Criminal Justice, 41:1-11.
Sohn, Dong-Wook. (2016): Residential crimes and neighborhood built environment: Assessing the effectiveness of crime prevention through environmental design (CPTED), cities journal,52, pp.86-93.
Sypion-Dutkowska, N. & Leitner, M. (2017): Land Use Influencing the Spatial Distribution of Urban Crime: A Case Study of Szczecin, Poland, ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2017, 6, 74; doi:10.3390/ijgi6030074.
Van Patten, Isaac T. Mc Keldin-Coner, Jennifer & Cox, Deana. (2010): A Micro-Spatial Analysis of Robbery: Prospective Hot Spotting in a Small City. Department of Criminal Justice, Radford University.19: 35-49
Wang, D., Ding, W., Lo, H., Morabito, M., Chen, P., Salazar, J, & Stepinski, T. (2013): Understanding the spatial distribution of crime based geospatial discriminative patterns. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 39: 93-106.
Yamamura, E. (2009): Formal and informal deterrents of crime in Japan: Roles of police and social capital revisited, The Journal of Socio-Economics, Vol. 38, pp. 611–621.
Zangi Abadi, Ali, Mubarak, Omid (2012): << Investigating the Factors Affecting the Suburbia Formation, Tabriz City and Its Consequences >> Case Study (Ahmadabad, Koi Beheshti, Khalilabad), Journal of Geography and Environmental Planning, Twenty-third Year , No. 1, pp. 67-80. (In persian)
Zakaria, S, Abdul Rahman, N, (2016): the mapping of spatial patterns of property crime in Malaysia: normal mixture model approach, journal of Business and social Development Volum11-1 :2016 , (1)4.
Zhong, H., Yin, J., Wu, J., Yao, S., Wang, Z., Lv, Z., & Yu, B. (2011): Spatial analysis for crime pattern of metropolis in transition using police records and GIS: a case study of Shanghai, China. International Journal of Digital Content Technology and its Applications, 5 (2): 93-1.
_||_