ارائه مدلی برای متعادل سازی سبد پروژه ساختمانی در سازمان های پروژه‌محور مبتنی بر بودجه سازمان و تورم های ساخت و مسکن ایران
الموضوعات :
رضا رجبی
1
,
سیامک حاجی یخچالی
2
1 - دانشکده مهندسی عمران، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
2 - استادیار دانشکده مهندسی صنایع، پردیس دانشکده های فنی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
الکلمات المفتاحية: متعادل‌سازی سبد, بهینه سازی سبد, مدیریت سبد, جریان نقدی, تورم, دوره های رونق و رکود, الگوریتم های فراابتکاری,
ملخص المقالة :
جریان‌های نقدی ورودی و خروجی سبد در سازمان‌های مبتنی بر پروژه‌های ساختمانی، عمدتاً به دلیل فاصله زمانی بین هزینه‌های انجام شده و درآمدهای کسب شده، در طول دوره سبد پروژه متعادل نیست. ماهیت سبد پروژه های ساختمانی به گونه ای است که باید زمان زیادی صرف شود تا پروژهها تکمیل و آماده فروش شوند تا سازمان به درآمدزایی برسد؛ این موضوع سازمان‌های پروژه‌محور ساختمانی را همواره در خطر مواجهه با جریان نقدی منفی و افزایش فشار مالی قرار داده است. بنابراین، هدف این پژوهش به حداکثر رساندن سود سبد پروژه از دیدگاه سازمان است و در آن پارامترهای تورم هزینه های ساخت، تورم قیمت مسکن در دوره‌های رونق و رکود و میزان آورده سازمان (بودجه) درنظرگرفته می شود. همچنین حداکثر تراز منفی جریان نقدی تجمعی سبد به میزان تزریق سرمایه سازمان محدود می گردد تا جواب بهینه مدل کاملاً متناسب با آورده نقدی و سرمایه در دسترس سازمان باشد. برای حل مساله بهینه یابی از سه الگوریتم فراابتکاری چرخه آب (WCA)، تکامل تفاضلی (DE) و بهینه سازی مبتنی بر یاددهی-یادگیری (TLBO) استفاده می شود. برای اعتبارسنجی مدل، مجموعه ای از پنج پروژه ساختمانی واقعی در تهران بهینه شده است. نتایج بهینه سازی در مقایسه با تجزیه و تحلیل انجام شده توسط دفتر مدیریت پروژه (PMO)، روش سنتی، نشان دهنده بهبود قابل توجهی در مقدار تابع هدف است. علاوه بر این، WCA در مقایسه با سایر الگوریتم‌ها، عملکرد بهتری را در این مساله نشان داد.
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