بررسی تأثیر کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت ICT بر پیچیدگی اقتصادی در گروه کشورهای درآمد متوسط (رویکرد پانل VAR)
الموضوعات :
اشکان رحیم زاده
1
(استادیار ، دانشکده علوم انسانی ، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی زنجان)
الکلمات المفتاحية: پانل VAR, واردات ICT, پیچیدگی اقتصادی,
ملخص المقالة :
هدف اصلی تحقیق بررسی تأثیر ICT بر پیچیدگی اقتصادی در گروه کشورهای با درآمد متوسط می‌باشد. کشورهای منتخب این بررسی شامل ایران، ترکیه، آذربایجان، مالزی، مکزیک، روسیه، قزاقستان، بلغارستان و بلاروس است. بازه زمانی مورد‌مطالعه در این تحقیق 2021-2014 می‌باشد. متغیرهای پژوهش مطابق معیار لوین، لین و چو در سطح ایستا یا مانا هستند. بر اساس معیار شوارتز بيزین (SBC) وقفه بهینه یک می‌باشد. نتایج برآورد مدل بر اساس آزمون خود رگرسیون برداری (VAR) نشان می‌دهد پیچیدگی اقتصادی در کوتاه‌مدت تحت تأثیر مثبت از خودش با یک وقفه و واردات فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات (در سطح خطای 8 درصد) می‌باشد. نتایج بلندمدت نشان می‌دهد با افزایش یک‌درصدی کاربران اینترنت و واردات ICT، میزان پیچیدگی اقتصادی به ترتیب به میزان 258/0 و 271/0 درصد افزایش می¬یابد. در تحلیل عکس‌العمل اثر شوک واردات کالاهای ICT بر پیچیدگی اقتصادی در همه سال‌ها مثبت می‌باشد. اثر شوک کاربران اینترنت در همه سال‌ها روند مثبت و معنی‌دار مشاهده نمی‌شود.
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