واکاوی عوامل مؤثر بر ورشکستگی مالی با رویکرد فراترکیب
الموضوعات :علی لعل بار 1 , مریم شریف نژاد 2 , مریم اسدی 3
1 - گروه حسابداری، واحد اراک، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اراک، ایران.
2 - گروه اقتصاد، واحد اراک، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اراک، ایران.
3 - گروه حسابداری، واحد اراک، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اراک، ایران.
الکلمات المفتاحية: آنتروپی شانون, فراترکیب, ورشکستگی,
ملخص المقالة :
هدف: در عصر حاضر ورشکستگی شرکت‌های بزرگ جهان باعث شده ورشکستگی مالی به‌عنوان موضوعی بسیار مهم در حوزه مالی مطرح و مطالعه علل مؤثر در ورشکستگی از نگاه مالی و همچنین ارزیابی ورشکستگی به کمک الگوهای متداول علمی بسیار برجسته گردد. بنابراین هدف مطالعه حاضر واکاوی عوامل مؤثر بر ورشکستگی مالی است.
روش‌شناسی پژوهش: به این منظور با استفاده از رویکرد فراترکیب نتایج و یافته‌های پژوهشهای پیشین (170 مقاله علمی) در سال 1400 مورد ارزیابی قرارگرفت. سپس با استفاده از روش کمی آنتروپی شانون ضرایب عوامل مؤثر بر ورشکستگی تعیین گردید.
یافته‌ها: نتایج تحقیق حاضر حاکی از آن است که میتوان عوامل مؤثر بر ورشکستگی را براساس چهار بعد یعنی عوامل مالی، عوامل غیرمالی، عوامل داخلی و عوامل خارجی دستهبندی و در قالب 27 متغیر شناسایی نمود. از طرفی این تحقیق گویای این حقیقت است که متغیرهایی مثل بازده دارایی، نسبت جاری، نسبت حقوق صاحبان سهام به کل دارایی و نسبت سرمایه در گردش به مجموع دارایی از مهمترین عوامل مؤثر بر ورشکستگی شرکتها میباشند. در حالیکه عواملی نظیر ارزش دفتری هر سهم و موجودی کالا به بدهی جاری پایینترین رتبه را از نظر اهمیت به خود اختصاص دادهاند. یعنی در بین مدلها و پژوهشهای مختلف مورد مطالعه، توجه به عوامل و تکرارپذیری این متغیرها کمتر است.
اصالت / ارزش‌افزوده علمی: بنابراین به سرمایهگذاران، سهامداران و مدیران مالی مؤسسات پیشنهاد میگردد در تصمیمات مالی خود به عواملی مؤثر در وقوع ورشکستگی مالی که در این تحقیق شناسایی شده توجه ویژه داشته باشند.
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Argenti, J. (1976). Company failure: The tell-tale signs at the top. Management Review, 65(2).
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Bahiraie, A., Etemadi, K., & Gerami asl, A. (2016). Predicting Companies Financial bankruptcy Listed in Tehran Stock Exchange using ANN, ANFIS, LOGIT. New Marketing Research Journal, 6(2), 166-153. [In Persian]
Bani Mahd, B., & Akbari, R. (2010). Investigation of the association between Z’Altmans bankruptcy index and auditor change. Management Accounting, 3(6), 41–47. [In Persian]
Barboza, F., Kimura, H., & Altman, E. (2017). Machine learning models and bankruptcy prediction. Expert Systems with Applications, 83, 405-417.
Beaver, W. H. (1966). Financial ratios as predictors of failure. Journal of accounting research, 71-111.
Biddle, G. C., Ma, M. L., & Song, F. M. (2022). Accounting conservatism and bankruptcy risk. Journal of Accounting, Auditing & Finance, 37(2), 295-323.
Brewer, B. E., Wilson, C. A., Featherstone, A. M., Harris, J. M., Erickson, K., & Hallahan, C. (2012). Measuring the financial health of US production agriculture. Journal of ASFMRA, 178-193.
Brogaard, J., & Detzel, A. (2015). The asset-pricing implications of government economic policy uncertainty. Management science, 61(1), 3-18.
Cenciarelli, V. G., Greco, G., & Allegrini, M. (2018). Does intellectual capital help predict bankruptcy?. Journal of intellectual capital, 19(2), 321-337.
Chen, M. Y. (2011). Predicting corporate financial distress based on integration of decision tree classification and logistic regression. Expert systems with applications, 38(9), 11261-11272.
Christidis, A. C. Y., & Gregory, A. (2010). Some new models for financial distress prediction in the UK.
Dabagh, R., & Sheikhbeiglou, S. (2021). Bankruptcy Prediction of listed Companies in Tehran’s Stock Exchange by Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Fulmer Model. Journal of Development and Capital, 5(2), 153-168. [In Persian]
Dadbeh, F., & Partovifar, Z. (2021). The impact of disclosure of auditor reporting on business failure. Professional Auditing Research, 1(2), 106-131. [In Persian]
Dakovic, R., Czado, C., & Berg, D. (2010). Bankruptcy prediction in Norway: a comparison study. Applied economics letters, 17(17), 1739-1746.
Dankiewicz, R., & Simionescu, M. (2020). The insurance market in Romania: A macroeconomic and a microeconomic approach. Transformations in Business & Economics, 19(1).
Du Jardin, P., & Séverin, E. (2011). Predicting corporate bankruptcy using a self-organizing map: An empirical study to improve the forecasting horizon of a financial failure model. Decision Support Systems, 51(3), 701-711.
Esmaeilzadeh Moghari, A., & Shakeri, H. (2015). Predicting financial distress of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange using a naive Bayesian network and comparing it with data envelopment analysis. Financial Engineering and Portfolio Management, 6(22), 1–28. [In Persian]
Faghekarimi, S., Ohadi, F., Nikomram, H., & Royaei, R. (2022). Evaluating the Effect of Managers' Narcissism on Bankruptcy Risk Among Companies Listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. Studia Universitatis Vasile Goldiș Arad, Seria Științe Economice, 32(2), 65-83.
Firouzian, M., Javid, D., & Najmadini, N. (2011). The Application of Genetic Algorithms in Bankruptcy Predication and the Comparison of it with Altman’s Z-model listed companies in Tehran Stocks Exchange (TSE). Accounting and Auditing Review, 18(65), 99-114. [In Persian]
Ghadiri Moghadam, A., Gholampour Fard, M. M., & Nasir Zadeh, F. (2010). Investigating the ability of Altman and Ohlson bankruptcy prediction models in predicting the bankruptcy of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. Monetary & Financial Economics, 16(28), 193–220. [In Persian]
Ghamari Moghaddam, A., Lari Dasht Bayaz, M., & Nakhaei, H. (2022). The relationship among the cash components of profit, the stability of profit and the probability of bankruptcy of companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange. Advances in Finance and Investment, 3(8), 61-86. [In Persian]
Ghodrati, H., & Manavi Moghadam, A. H. (2010). Investigation of Bankruptcy Prediction Models) Altman, Shirata, Ahlson, Zemsky, Springer, CI Scor, Fulmer, Farajzadeh Genetics, and McCabe Genetics Models (Tehran Stock Exchange). Accounting and Auditing Research, 2(7), 128-140. [In Persian]
Haji Hashem, M., & Amir Hosseini, Z. (2019). Bankruptcy prediction and Corporate Governance: Financial Ratio Approach. Journal of Management Accounting and Auditing Knowledge, 8(30), 201-220. [In Persian]
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