On the Effect of Rainfall Variations on Economic Variables: The Application of General Equilibrium Model
الموضوعات :
زینب معین الدینی
1
(دانشگاه زابل)
حمید محمدی
2
(دانشگاه زابل)
حسین محرابی بشرآبادی
3
(شهید باهنر کرمان)
الکلمات المفتاحية: agricultural sector, rainfall, general equilibrium model, economics variables,
ملخص المقالة :
The economy of Iran is dependent on many variables thatplay a role in its growth and development. On the other hand, rainfall is one of the important factors of climate changethat has affected economic strategic programs including thoseof the agricultural sector. Rainfall variations impact manyeconomic variables, some of which are explored here. Theaim of this study was to evaluate rainfall shocks on some economicvariables using a general equilibrium model thatincluded the best scenario representing the highest rainfall,the worst scenario representing the lowest rainfall, and normalscenario considering average rainfall. To check the effect ofthese changes on the agricultural sector, a set of commoditiesproduced by this section is considered separately, and othersections are considered in general. The results showed thatthe production of these commodities has been increased byabout 14% in the best rainfall scenario. All commodities havebeen faced with reduced consumption from 0.3% to 10.3% inthe worst rainfall scenario; this was the greatest loss ofproducts related to the agricultural commodities. Rainfall increasedthe price of all commodities by 0.25-28.7%, exceptfor industry. Both private and public investments wereinfluenced by rainfall change.
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