رقم المقالة : IJASRT-2401-1310 زيارة : 127 الصفحة: 141 - 150

نوع المخطوط: ابحاث

Climate Change Trends and Effects on the Selected Food Crops Production: Evidence from the Amaro Kelle District of Southern Ethiopia

الموضوعات :

Christian Nwofoke ¹ , Baynachew Bargissa ²

1 - Department of Agricultural Economics, Management and Extension, Ebonyi State University, Abakaliki, Nigeria
2 - Department of Rural Development and Agricultural Extension, Mekelle University, Ethiopia.

تاريخ الإرسال : 13 الخميس , رجب, 1445 تاريخ التأكيد : 10 الأربعاء , رمضان, 1445 تاريخ الإصدار : 24 السبت , ذو القعدة, 1445

الکلمات المفتاحية: Climate Change, Trends, Production, Food Crops, Amaro Kelle,

ملخص المقالة :

Climate change trends show the change in weather elements which helps us better understand its significant effect on crop production. However, the essential work of scholars has been focusing on adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change without giving due attention to climate change trends. Therefore, this study analyses trends in climate change concerning selected food crops in the Amaro Kelle District of Southern Ethiopia. Researchers collected Secondary data on climate change trends and chose food crop production from the Ethiopian national meteorological agency and the Amaro Kelle agricultural and rural development office. In addition, they used Microsoft Excel to analyse temperature, rainfall and crop production trends. Trend analysis shows an increase in maximum and minimum temperatures at the rate of 0.056 and 0.0787 0C per 32 years, while there is a decrease in annual rainfall at the rate of -7.6012 mm per 32 years. These climatic conditions increased maize and sorghum productivity at the rate of 713.69 and 376.56 tonnes per 12 years, respectively, and decreased productivity of teff and wheat at the rate of -2618.5 and -30.892 tonnes per 12 years, respectively. These findings indicated climate change's positive and negative effects on the district's food crop production and food security. Finally, the study suggests farmers of the district focus on the cultivation of those crops, which correlate positively with the increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall trend in the study area.

المصادر:

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نص كامل:

Climate Change Trends and Effects on the Selected Food Crops Production: Evidence from the Amaro Kelle District of Southern Ethiopia

Baynachew Bargissa1 Christian Nwofoke2, Jafar Azizi3, Mehjabeen4

1Department of Rural Development and Agricultural Extension, Mekelle University, Ethiopia

2Department of Agricultural Economics, Management and Extension, Ebonyi State University, Abakaliki, Nigeria (nwofoke.christian@ebsu.edu.ng)

3Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, Islamic Azad University, Rasht Branch, Rasht, Iran (jafar574@yahoo.com)

4Assistant Professor, Faculty of Management and Commerce, PES University, Bengaluru, Karnataka, India (mehjabeen.nish@gmail.com)

*Corresponding Author: baynachew2020@gmail.com

Abstract

Keywords: Climate Change, Trends, Production, Food Crops, Effects, Amaro Kelle, District

1.0 Introduction

The global warming trend has been increasing, probably due to deforestation and urbanization (Amdu, Ayehu, & Deressa, 2013). It could negatively affect worldwide agriculture and lead to poor harvest or complete crop failure (Ojuederie & Ogunsola, 2017). For instance, the warming trend increased the yields of rice and soybean, whereas the yields of major food crops such as maize and wheat showed a decreasing trend in China (Tao, Yokozawa, Liu, & Zhang, 2008). Studies revealed that increasing temperature and the changing pattern of rainfall have a considerable impact on food production (Mahmood, Ahmad, Hassan, & Khuda, 2012), and the cost of adopting a response to extreme weather events is high (Kandlikar & Risbey, 2000).

This paper aims to identify crop types with good productivity with increased or decreased temperature and rainfall to recommend to the farmers to adapt to the high cost of climate change. Also, there is a lack of research on the trend and impacts of climate change on specific crop types. Many available pieces of research were centered merely on adaptation and mitigation of climate change in the study area. Hence, this research is the need of the hour.

2.0 Literature

The findings of different scholars differ on the effect of increasing temperature on crop production. For example, Janjuaa, Samad, and Khan (2014) discovered an adverse effect of increasing temperature on wheat production. In contrast, Shakoor, Saboor, Baig, Afzal and Rahman (2015) envisaged a positive relationship between rice production and rising maximum mean temperature. Likewise, maximum temperature has adversely affected wheat production, but decreasing rainfall affects the selected crop yields negatively, except for wheat in Pakistan (Ali et al., 2017). Agriculture-based economies are highly influenced by climate change due to changes in rainfall patterns, temperature and floods, although adaptation practices showed a positive result (Mendelsohn, 2014; Akhter & Olaf, 2017).

Also, Scholars have been reporting a change in temperature and rainfall trends (Zelda, David, & Marr, 2017). It has manifested a consistent trend in increased drought, flooding and erosion. Climate change has adversely affected agricultural production (Al-Fawwaz & Ahmed, 2016). For example, growing natural hazards, such as flooding and drought, pose a tremendous challenge to the aim of the international community, whose thrust is to end hunger and meet food security (Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations [FAO]; The World Bank, 2017). It could be a significant reason why recent scholars have devoted their works to finding innovative adaptation strategies, particularly in developing countries (Zelda, David, & Marr, 2017; Badjie, Yaffa, Mamma, & Bah, 2019; Simane et al., 2016).

In Africa, particularly Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), consecutive studies showed significant changes in the trends of temperature and rainfall and their effects on rain-fed crop production (Serdeczny et al., 2017; Speranza & Scholz, 2013; Anderson, Morton, & Toulmin, 2010; Manyeruke, Hamauswa, & Mhandara, 2013). The marginal cropping lands may be severely affected due to limited adaptation capacity (Jones & Thornton, 2009). In the region, increasing temperature (CO2) will affect the production of C3 and C4 crops differently (Edame, Ekpenyong, Fonta, & Duru, 2011). In the Yatta District of Kenya, decreasing rainfall showed a negative correlation for maize, beans, sorghum, cowpeas and pigeon peas (Mburu, Kung'u, & Muriuki, 2014).

Recently scholars indicated that the absolute dependence of agriculture on weather patterns in the SSA had led the region into a food insecurity crisis. This research fills the gap as some scholars recommended more recent works on the increasing change in the trends of major climatic elements (Anderson, Morton, & Toulmin, 2010; Howden et al., 2007; Shobha, Shinya and Hitoshi, 2017).

Precisely it analyses the trends of temperature, rainfall and selected crop types to understand how climate change affects the selected crop types in the area. It explores that farmers use crop types showing increasing productivity trends with increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall. In addition, the temperature is constantly rising, and the volume of rain is declining in many cases and areas.

Several scholars in different parts of Ethiopia have investigated the effects of rising the temperature and decreasing rainfall on crop production and food security but were not crop-specific (Al-Fawwaz, and Ahmed, 2016; Aberra, 2011; Deressa, Hassan and Ringler, 2011; Wondimagegn and Seifu, 2016; Baya et al. 2019). The investigation carried out in the northern regional state of Ethiopia shows a rising trend in temperature and decreasing rainfall patterns (Beyene, 2015; Hayelom, Chen, Marsie and Negash, 2017). Location-specific adaptation strategies are appreciated in the area (Paulos Asrat & Belay Simane, 2018). Other scholars also suggest that neutralising the potential adverse effects of climate change on crop production is vital by using local experience-based adaptation strategies (Hassan and Nhemachena, 2008; Asrat and Simane, 2017). In this paper, it is anticipated that the crop production of indigent households will be highly affected by the ever-changing pattern of climate (Elum, Modise, and Marr, 2017).

The works of many scholars in Ethiopia also suggest that agriculture is a sensitive sector to climate change, and adaptation is the lighting means to sustain household food security (Yibekal, Chanyalew and Getachew, 2013; Belay, Hunachew, Wakgari, Abera, Kiros and Jonathan, 2016; Sisay, 2012; Abebayehu and Guush, 2015; Lemma & Wondimagegn, 2014; Belay and Benjamin, 2014). There are also a few pieces of evidence that have focused on studying the trends of climatic parameters (temperature and rainfall) to correctly investigate the effects of climate change on food crop production (Asfaw et al., 2014; Wondimagen and Lemma, 2016) at the national level.

In the Amaro Kelle district, farmers have perceived the changing trend of climate but do not know how to correlate food crops to temperature and rainfall changes (Baya et al., 2019). Hence, the ever-increasing risk of crop failure, associated with the increased frequency of extreme climatic events (drought, flooding, soil erosion etc.), has been posing a clear and remarkable threat to food security (Baya et al., 2019). Therefore, research on farmers' perception and adaptation to climate change alone will not result in a considerable solution to fight against the impacts and sustain food security unless the meteorological data on climate change is investigated in correlation with given years of crop yields. Making a difference in its scope, context and content, the present study aims to analyse climate change trends and their effects on the yields of selected food crops that have been ignored in the previous studies in the study district. This work's main expectation is that a simple way of identifying positive and negative correlations of crops with increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall trends will be shown. It will help agricultural development agents correctly recommend farmers to use the correct crop type in the right climatic environment, which will, in turn, help the nation's food security. It is a good starting point as many works of scholars (Abebayehu and Guush, 2015; Lemma & Wondimagegn, 2014; Belay and Benjamin, 2014) in the country failed to address the climate change vs crop trend specifically in their research in the area.

3.0 Research Methodology

3.1 The Study Area

This study was conducted in Amaro Kelle district, South Nation Nationalities People Regional State of Ethiopia. This district is situated between latitudes 50 40' and 60 0' north of the equator and longitudes 370 40' and 380 0' east (Fig.1). The study area is located at a distance of 671 km from Addis Ababa and 412 km from the regional city, Hawassa. Amaro Kelle district comprises three topographical zones: Highland, Middle altitude area and Lowland Amaro Woreda Agricultural and Rural Development Office (Amaro Ward Agriculture and Rural Development Office, 2010).

Figure 1: Administrative Map of the Study District

Source: Ethio ArcGIS (2018)

3.2 Types and Sources of Data

The study involved quantitative type of data from secondary sources. The secondary data was obtained from National Meteorological Service Agency (temperature and rainfall data), journals, theses and other published materials. Furthermore, the Amaro Kelle district rural development and agriculture office obtained crop production data.

3.3 Data collection

The monthly and annual rainfall and temperature data from the National Meteorological Agency office (NMAO) for the period of 1983-2015 were used. Climate change was measured by comparing current data to 32 years of retrospective data collected in 2018 from the National Meteorological Agency office (NMAO) on temperature and rainfall patterns of the study area. Likewise, 12 years of retrospective data were collected on crop yield in the study area from the Amaro Kelle district Ministry of Rural Development and Agriculture Office (MRDAO).

3.4 Data analysis

Microsoft Excel was used to analyse the trends of temperature, rainfall and selected food crop yield in the district. Microsoft Excel is one of the top tools used to analyse data such as temperature and precipitation trends (Hayelom, Chen, Marsie and Negash, 2017). This study was used to realise the district's temperature trends, rainfall and selected food crop production. To achieve the relationship between climate change and food-chosen crop yield in the area, the study used 32 years of climate change data and 12 years of crop production data from the district. In this case, the temperature, precipitation and crop yield trend were analysed using an excel spreadsheet. Analysis of the annual maximum and minimum temperature trend and total annual rainfall trend was correlated with the average crop yield of a given year to see the relationship between climate change on food security.

4.1 Results and Discussion

3.1. Temperature and Rainfall Trend Analysis

The analysis showed that the average annual minimum and maximum temperature generally increased (Figures 2 and 3), but total yearly rainfall showed a decreasing trend (Figure 4). The average annual temperature trend from 1983 – 2015 in the area showed a warming climate. Several studies stand in harmony with the current finding. For instance, in Charity, Shakespear and Lawrence (2013), declining rainfall patterns and increasing temperature trends have affected the agricultural sector. Beyene (2015) envisaged an increasing trend in both minimum and maximum temperature, whereas the average rainfall trend indicated a decrease in the Tigray regional state of Ethiopia. Studies also revealed that increasing temperature records and the changing pattern of rainfall have a substantial impact on food production (African Technology Policy Studies Network (ATPS), 2013; Mahmood, Ahmad, Hassen and Baskh, 2012). However, the work of (Hayelom, Chen, Marsie and Negash, 2017) slightly opposed the result as the maximum temperature had a general increasing trend; however, the minimum temperature decreased from 1985 to 2010.

From the trend analysis result, the rate of change is defined by the slope of the trend line, which in this case is about 0.0787oC/32 years, 0.056 oC /32 years and -7.6012 oC /32 years for average minimum annual temperature, average maximum yearly temperature and total annual rainfall respectively during the period of 1983 to 2015 (Figures 2, 3 & 4).

The slope of the graph indicates a positive value for average minimum and maximum annual temperature and a negative value for total annual rainfall. It indicates an increase in maximum and minimum temperatures and a decrease in annual rainfall. The minimum and maximum average annual temperature recorded was 26.5 0C and 29.30C, respectively, between 1983 and 2009. Whereas the maximum yearly rainfall was recorded in 1988 with 1479.9 mm rainfall, the minimum rainfall was recorded in 2015 with 646.1 mm rainfall.

Table 1 shows the results of the analysis of maximum and minimum temperatures between 1983 and 2015: the rates of change are about 0.0787 oC/32 and 0.056 oC/32 years, respectively. Rainfall data for 32 years were analysed. Table 1 shows the descriptive statistics of monthly rainfall. The coefficient of variation (CV) ranges from 73.71298% – 130.319 % (Table 1). According to the result of the analysis, all months have represented extreme CV, meaning that all months have a homogenous character in terms of rainfall variations (Table 1). The total annual rainfall of the study area is slightly low and decreasing, ranging from 1200.8 mm to 646.1 mm (Figure 4). The result indicates that the amount of rainfall in the area is highly variable. This extreme variability and unusual rainfall amount and distributions usually lead to poor harvest and complete crop failure in the study area.

The CV (9.515% to 14.2%) for the monthly mean minimum temperature shows a slightly high month-to-month variation (Table 1) compared to the monthly mean maximum temperature with CV (2.95% to 5.53) (Table 1). As indicated in Table 1, the lowest (14.5) and highest (16.4) monthly mean minimum temperature was recorded in June and March, respectively. Furthermore, the highest variation of mean minimum monthly temperature occurred in March, while the lowest (25.5) and highest (30.6) monthly mean maximum temperature was recorded in July and February, respectively (Table 1). Besides, July was the month with the highest variation of mean maximum temperature (Table 1). There is also a positive correlation between the monthly mean temperature and the period. It could be because the area's temperature is increasing due to global climate change.

According to Hare (2003) and Hayelom et al. (2017), CV is used to classify the degree of variability of rainfall events as follows: low (CV < 20), moderate (CV < 30), high (CV > 30), very high (CV>40%) and extremely high (CV>70%) inter-annual variability of rainfall. Based on this categorisation and the observed data, the inter-annual rainfall variability in the study area is extremely high, as all the months had a CV higher than 70% (Table 1). The graph (Figure 4) depicts a significant variability in the volume of rainfall over the years. The rainfall trend for 32 years witnessed a decreasing mean rainfall at -7.6012 mm and high annual variation with a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.1207.

According to Amaro Kelle Agriculture and Rural Development Office (2010), the district had temperatures ranging from 12.6 0C to 25 0C. The amount of rainfall in the area ranges from 800mm to 1000mm. From the analysis of the results, there are changes in the maximum temperature, minimum temperature and annual rainfall ranges.

Table 1: Statistical Summary of Monthly Rainfall, Mean Minimum and Maximum Temperature for the Station from 1983 -2015

Statistical Summary of monthly Mean Minimum Temperature
Month	N	Range	Minimum	Maximum	Mean	SD	Variance	CV%
Jun	33	7	11	18	16.097	1.65972	2.755	10.31074
Feb	33	6.9	11.7	18.6	16.3091	1.86922	3.494	11.46121
Mar	33	12.1	7.5	19.6	16.4	2.32298	5.396	14.16451
Apr	33	5.9	12.1	18	15.9	1.80745	3.267	11.36761
May	33	6.4	11.2	17.6	15.5606	1.65604	2.742	10.64252
Jun	33	6.9	10.3	17.2	14.8727	1.8259	3.334	12.27686
Jul	33	7.1	10.7	17.8	14.5788	1.50639	2.269	10.33274
Aug	33	6.5	10.8	17.3	14.9091	1.49883	2.246	10.05312
Sep	33	7.4	11.2	18.6	15.3455	1.46011	2.132	9.514907
Oct	33	6.4	10.8	17.2	15.2485	1.73081	2.996	11.35069
Nov	33	7.6	9.8	17.4	15.4061	1.67909	2.819	10.89886
Dec	33	7.5	10.6	18.1	15.5182	1.60418	2.573	10.33741
Statistical Summary of Monthly Mean Maximum Temperature
Month	N	Range	Minimum	Maximum	Mean	SD	Variance	CV%
Jun	33	2.9	28.1	31	29.903	0.8837	0.781	2.955222
Feb	33	4.5	28.3	32.8	30.6788	1.22978	1.512	4.008566
Mar	33	4.7	27.9	32.6	30.2939	1.17152	1.372	3.867181
Apr	33	5.2	25.4	30.6	28.0788	1.06265	1.129	3.784528
May	33	4.5	24.6	29.1	26.8394	1.12637	1.269	4.196703
Jun	33	5.9	23.1	29	26.4364	1.26536	1.601	4.786431
Jul	33	6.1	22.8	28.9	25.5758	1.41311	1.997	5.525184
Aug	33	4.5	24.1	28.6	26.0758	1.27525	1.626	4.89055
Sep	33	5.1	24.7	29.8	26.9909	1.20917	1.462	4.479917
Oct	33	3.3	24.8	28.1	26.797	0.79431	0.631	2.964175
Nov	33	4.1	25.6	29.7	27.5848	0.79652	0.634	2.887532
Dec	33	4.5	25.9	30.4	28.6273	1.00507	1.01	3.510879
Statistical Summary of Monthly Rainfall
Month	N	Range	Minimum	Maximum	Mean	SD	Variance	CV%
Jan	33	57.3	0	57.3	17.5121	12.90869	166.634	73.71298
Feb	33	86.2	0	86.2	21.597	18.03206	325.155	83.49336
Mar	33	169.3	16.7	186	51.9848	40.30796	1624.732	77.53797
Apr	33	387.3	16.7	404	111.1515	100.1494	10029.9	90.10167
May	33	295.1	16.1	311.2	110.8061	96.67001	9345.09	87.2425
Jun	33	196.6	15	211.6	49.0364	41.26272	1702.612	84.14712
Jul	33	113.2	2.8	116	35.8788	28.63097	819.732	79.79913
Aug	33	138.1	9.7	147.8	43.9091	40.01777	1601.422	91.13776
Sep	33	131.4	15.4	146.8	54.7394	43.8384	1921.806	80.08564
Oct	33	288.3	15.6	303.9	96.8394	71.58068	5123.793	73.9169
Nov	33	213	0	213	41.4939	53.41902	2853.591	128.7395
Dec	33	137.6	0	137.6	19.6273	25.57811	654.24	130.319

Note: SD: Standard Deviation, CV: Coefficient of Variance, 95% confidence level

Source: Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency (ENMA), 2015

Figure 2: Average Annual Min. Temp. (oC) (1983-2015)

Source: Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency (ENMA), 2015

Figure 3: Maximum Annual Temperature Trend for the Period of 1983-2015

Source: Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency (ENMA), 2015

Figure 4: Annual Rainfall Trend for the Period of 1983-2015.

Source: Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency (ENMA), 2015

3.2 Climate Change and its Effects on the production of Selected Food Crops

The above temperature and rainfall trend analysis show less and extreme temperature variability, adversely affecting crop production (Figure 2, Figures 3 and 4). The following graphs show the decreasing and increasing production trends of four major food crops in the study area for the whole period (2004-2015).

As shown in Figure 5, maise production has an increasing trend from 2004 to 2015 with a positive rate of change (713.69/ 12 years). Sorghum production (Figure 6) from 2004 to 2015 showed an increasing trend, indicating a positive rate of change (376.56/12 years). It is because sorghum is a drought-tolerant food security crop grown in sub-Saharan Africa and Ethiopia (FAOSTAT, 2013; CSA, 2015). But, teff production (Figure 7) for the same period experienced a decreasing trend indicating a negative rate of change (-2618.5/12 years). The highest production of (1859.8 tonnes) was recorded in 2008 with less rainfall record of (56mm), indicating that teff grows well in the winter season with less rainfall, and it is an important crop for households in rural locations which are affected by bad climatic conditions (Bayecha, 2013). Similarly, wheat production (Figure 8) from 2004 to 2015 showed a decreasing trend with a negative rate of change (-30.892/12 years). It indicates that the increasing average minimum and maximum temperature with decreasing average annual rainfall significantly affects wheat production. The finding is in harmony with the result of (Sajjad Ali, Ying Liu, Muhammad Ishaq, Tariq Shah, Abdullah, Aasir Ilyas, 2017), who reported that maximum temperature adversely affects wheat production in Pakistan.

In general, the increasing trend of average minimum and maximum annual temperature with a decreasing yearly average rainfall trend had a positive effect on some crops' production and a negative effect on others' production. Therefore, it can be inferred that temperature and rainfall changes have positive and negative implications for food security in the Amaro Kelle district.

Figure 5: Maise Production for the Period of 2004-2015

Source: Amaro Kelle district Agriculture and Rural Development Office, 2015

Figure 6: Sorghum Production for the Period 2004-2015

Source: Amaro Kelle district Agriculture and Rural Development Office, 2015

Figure 7: Teff Production for the Period 2004-2015

Source: Amaro Kelle district Agriculture and Rural Development Office, 2015

Figure 8: Wheat Production for the Period 2004-2015

Source: Amaro Kelle district Agriculture and Rural Development Office, 2015

Figure 9 shows the correlation between the variations and changes in trend (upward and downward) shift of the two climatic variables and the four major crops over the whole period (2004–2015).

Moreover, the average annual maximum temperature has shown variability slightly, and minor variations were observed in maximum temperature for all crops. However, total annual rainfall showed significant variability, and the trend showed a decreasing rate. In addition, the production of maise and sorghum crops increased with increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation. Figure 9 shows that teff and wheat production decreased as maximum and minimum temperature increased, and annual rainfall decreased. Finally, it confirms that climate change affects household food security positively and negatively. Moreover, its positive effect stimulates higher crop yield with decreasing rainfall and increasing temperature, contributing to household food security.

Figure 9: Summary of the Relationship between Temperature, Rainfall and Crop Production (2004-2015)

Source: Amaro Kelle district Agriculture and Rural Development Office and Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency (ENMA), 2015

1. Conclusion and Recommendations

The study analysed climate change trends and their effects on selected food crops in Amaro Kelle District. The 32 years' temperature and rainfall data showed an increasing trend of minimum and maximum temperatures and decreasing rainfall trend in the district. The rising trend change in average annual minimum and maximum temperature and declining trend change in total yearly rainfall have resulted in an increase in the production of maise and sorghum but a decrease in the total production of teff and wheat in the study area. The study concludes that change in temperature and rainfall trends has both positive and negative implications to household food security in the area. Depending on the particular findings, the study forwarded the following recommendations: (1) Farmers of the district shall focus in farming crops that correlate positively to the increasing temperature trend and decreasing rainfall trend in the area. (2) Local governments and development agents of the study area shall encourage farmers to select drought-tolerant crop varieties, particularly during bad climatic conditions.

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Climate Change Trends and Effects on the Selected Food Crops Production: Evidence from the Amaro Kelle District of Southern Ethiopia

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