تحليل سناريويي بهرهوري آب و انرژي محصولات زراعي در منطقه ميناب تحت تغييرات اقليمي
محورهای موضوعی : مدیریت منابع آبمهدیه امانی 1 , مریم امیدی نجف آبادی 2 * , سيد مهدي ميردامادي 3 , علی محمدی ترکاشوند 4
1 - دانشجوي دکتري، گروه علوم و مهندسي کشاورزي، واحد علوم و تحقيقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامي، تهران، ايران.
2 - استاد، گروه علوم و مهندسي کشاورزي، واحد علوم و تحقيقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامي، تهران، ايران.
3 - دانشيار، گروه علوم و مهندسي کشاورزي، واحد علوم و تحقيقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامي، تهران، ايران.
4 - استاد، گروه علوم و مهندسي کشاورزي، واحد علوم و تحقيقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامي، تهران، ايران.
کلید واژه: بهرهوري انرژي, بهرهوري آب, تغيير اقليم, سناريوهاي SSP, کشاورزي پايدار,
چکیده مقاله :
سابقه و هدف: بخش کشاورزي به عنوان رکن اصلي اقتصاد، به شدت تحت تأثير تغييرات اقليمي قرار دارد. اين نوسانات، عملکرد محصولات و منابع آب را ناپايدار کرده و بهرهوري را کاهش ميدهد. شهرستان ميناب، يکي از قطبهاي کشاورزي جنوب ايران، نقش کليدي در توليد محصولات زراعي و باغي دارد. هدف اين پژوهش، تحليل شاخصهاي کشاورزي و بهرهوري آب در محصولات منتخب شهرستان طي دوره ۱۴۰۱ –۱۳۸۶ و بررسي تأثير پارامترهاي اقليمي مانند بارش، دما و ساعات آفتابي است. همچنين، ارزيابي اثرات تغييرات آبوهوايي آينده بر کشاورزي منطقه با استفاده از سناريوهاي اقليمي مختلف (SSP126، SSP245، SSP585)، از ديگر اهداف اين مطالعه ميباشد.
روش پژوهش: در اين مطالعه، تأثير تغييرات اقليمي بر عملکرد و بهرهوري آب و انرژي چهار محصول کشاورزي مهم شامل گندم، گوجهفرنگي، پياز و هندوانه مورد بررسي قرار گرفت. براي اين منظور، از دادههاي هواشناسي (شامل دماي حداقل و حداکثر، بارش و ساعات آفتابي) و دادههاي کشاورزي مرتبط با عملکرد و مصرف آب و انرژي استفاده شد. دادههاي خام پس از مرحله پالايش و نرمال سازي، با استفاده از مدل LARS-WG تحت سه سناريوي مختلف تغيير اقليم (SSP126، SSP245 و SSP585) براي دوره آينده شبيه سازي شدند. دقت مدل به کمک شاخص ضريب همبستگي پيرسون (R) ارزيابي و تأييد گرديد. براي تحليل روابط بين متغيرهاي اقليمي و کشاورزي، از روش همبستگي پيرسون در محيط پايتون استفاده شد و نتايج به صورت نقشههاي حرارتي (Heatmap) ارائه و به منظور افزايش قابليت اطمينان نتايج، عدم قطعيت مدلسازي با محاسبه بازه اطمينان ۹۵ درصدي گزارش گرديد. همچنين براي سنجش دقت مدلها، دو شاخص اصلي RMSE و NSE محاسبه شد.
يافتهها: گوجهفرنگي با بهرهوري فيزيکي آب 17/8 کيلوگرم و اقتصادي 56/1141ريال بر مترمکعب، بالاترين کارايي مصرف آب و ارزش اقتصادي را نشان داد. هندوانه نيز با 88/0 مگاژول در هکتار، بيشترين بازده انرژي را نشان ميدهد. در مقابل، گندم کمترين بهرهوري آب (03/1 کيلوگرم بر مترمکعب) و انرژي (12/0 مگاژول در هکتار) را دارد. در سناريوي بدبينانهSSP585، افزايش دما و کاهش بارندگي موجب افزايش نياز آبي و کاهش عملکرد ميشود. همچنين، گوجهفرنگي و هندوانه به دما، و گندم و پياز به بارندگي حساستر هستند. نتايج ارزيابي مدلها نشان دادند که انتخاب مدل غيرخطي (درجه ۲) منجر به بهبود چشمگير دقت پيشبيني براي اکثر متغيرهاي آبوهوايي شده است.
نتيجهگيري: تغييرات اقليمي تأثير مستقيمي بر عملکرد و بهرهوري محصولات کشاورزي شهرستان ميناب دارد. بهرهوري آب در برخي محصولات مانند هندوانه بالاست، اما محصولات استراتژيک نظير گندم در برابر تغيير اقليم آسيبپذيرتر هستند. با توجه به محدوديت منابع آبي و افزايش فشار ناشي از رشد جمعيت جهاني، لازم است راهبردهاي مديريتي مؤثري براي افزايش بهرهوري آب و انرژي در کشاورزي اتخاذ شود. ترکيب رويکردهاي فني، اقتصادي و زيست محيطي ميتواند در بهبود مديريت منابع آب و تضمين پايداري کشاورزي مؤثر باشد.
Background and Aim: The agricultural sector, as a main pillar of the economy, is highly affected by climate change. These fluctuations have destabilized crop yields and water resources, reducing productivity. Minab County, one of the agricultural hubs in southern Iran, plays a key role in the production of field and horticultural crops. The aim of this study is to analyze agricultural indicators and water productivity of selected crops in the county during the period 2007–2022 (1386–1401 in the Iranian calendar) and to examine the effects of climatic parameters such as precipitation, temperature, and sunshine hours. Furthermore, assessing the impacts of future climate change on the region’s agriculture under different climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585) is another objective of this research.
Method: In this study, the impact of climate change on the yield and water and energy productivity of four major agricultural crops—wheat, tomato, onion, and watermelon—was investigated. For this purpose, meteorological data (including minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, and sunshine hours) and agricultural data related to yield and water and energy consumption were used. The raw data, after cleaning and normalization, were simulated for the future period using the LARS-WG model under three different climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). The model’s accuracy was evaluated and confirmed using the Pearson correlation coefficient (R). To analyze the relationships between climatic and agricultural variables, the Pearson correlation method was applied in Python, and the results were presented as heatmaps. Furthermore, to enhance the reliability of the results, modeling uncertainty was reported by calculating a 95% confidence interval. Additionally, two key indices, RMSE and NSE, were computed to assess the accuracy of the models.
Findings: Tomato, with a physical water productivity of 17.8 kg m⁻³ and an economic water productivity of 1141.56 Rials m⁻³, demonstrated the highest water use efficiency and economic value. Watermelon also showed the highest energy yield, with 0.88 MJ ha⁻¹. In contrast, wheat exhibited the lowest water productivity (1.03 kg m⁻³) and energy productivity (0.12 MJ ha⁻¹). Under the pessimistic SSP585 scenario, increased temperature and decreased precipitation led to higher water requirements and reduced crop yield. Moreover, tomato and watermelon were more sensitive to temperature, while wheat and onion were more sensitive to precipitation. Model evaluation results indicated that selecting a nonlinear (second-degree) model significantly improved prediction accuracy for most climatic variables.
Conclusion: Climate change has a direct impact on the yield and productivity of agricultural crops in Minab County. While water productivity is relatively high for some crops such as watermelon, strategic crops like wheat are more vulnerable to climate change. Given the limitations of water resources and the increasing pressure from global population growth, it is essential to adopt effective management strategies to enhance water and energy productivity in agriculture. Integrating technical, economic, and environmental approaches can play a vital role in improving water resource management and ensuring agricultural sustainability.
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