تعیین تغییرات الگوی زمانی و مکانی شاخص تراکم بارندگی در ایران
محورهای موضوعی : مقالات برگرفته از پایان نامه
صادق کابلی
1
(گروه آب و سازه های هیدرولیکی، دانشکده مهندسی عمران و محیط زیست، دانشگاه صنعتی شیراز، ایران.)
علی اکبر حکمت زاده
2
(گروه آب و سازه های هیدرولیکی، دانشکده مهندسی عمران و محیط زیست، دانشگاه صنعتی شیراز، ایران.)
علی ترابی حقیقی
3
(گروه مهندسی آب، انرژی و محیط زیست، دانشگاه اولو، فنلاند.)
کلید واژه: ایران, آزمون من-کندال, شاخص تراکم بارندگی روزانه, الگوی بارش,
چکیده مقاله :
تعیین تغییرات الگوی زمانی و مکانی بارندگی نقش موثری در مدیریت منابع آب، کنترل مخاطرات طبیعی و طراحی زیرساخت های توسعه ایفا می‌کند. در این پژوهش تغییرات مکانی و زمانی شاخص تراکم بارندگی روزانه (CI) در گستره کشور ایران و با در نظر گرفتن 80 ایستگاه هواشناسی در دوره آماری سی ساله 1987-2016 مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. علاوه بر این روند تغییرات شاخص CI به صورت سالانه نیز توسط آزمون ناپارامتریک من-کندال مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان داد که مقدار این شاخص طی دوره سی ساله و در گستره ایران از 0.57 تا 0.71 متغییر می‌باشد. بیشترین مقادیر CI مربوط به مناطق ساحلی واقع در دریای خزر و خلیج فارس است که نشان دهنده تمرکز بارندگی در روزهای خاصی از سال در این مناطق می‌باشد. همچنین 64 ایستگاه از 80 ایستگاه مورد بررسی در این پژوهش روند رو به افزایش مقدار شاخص تراکم بارندگی روزانه را تجربه کرده‌اند. در ضمن با اعمال آزمون همبستگی اسپیرمن بر روی تمامی ایستگاه ها مشخص شد که همبستگی معنی‌دار و معکوس میان شاخص تراکم بارندگی روزانه، ارتفاع از سطح دریا و عرض جغرافیایی وجود دارد.
Determining the spatio-temporal variations of precipitation patterns plays a key role in water resource management, control of natural hazards, and the design of infrastructures. In this study, the spatial and temporal alterations of daily precipitation concentration index (CI) in Iran territory for the period of 1987 to 2016 was determined, considering 80 metrological stations, Which are well distributed throughout the country. In addition, the trend of annual CI variations was examined using non-parametric Mann-Kendal test. The results indicated that CI varies between 0.57 and 0.71 in Iran, considering the last three decades. The highest CI values were obtained for the Caspian Sea and Persian Gulf coastlines, indicating the concentration of rainfall in limited days in these regions. Moreover, 64 out of 80 stations have experienced an increasing trend in CI values. According to spearman tests, the significant reverse correlation was revealed between CI value and elevation from sea level, and latitude.
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