آینده پژوهی و سناریونویسی شهر خلاق با رویکرد متاورس (نمونه موردی: کلانشهر تبریز)
محورهای موضوعی : مطالعات جامعه شناختی شهریسعید جعفری نامور 1 , حسین نظم فر 2 * , ابراهیم تقوی 3
1 - دانشجوی دکتری، گروه جغرافیا و برنامهریزی شهری، واحد مرند، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مرند، ایران.
2 - استاد، گروه جغرافیا و برنامهریزی شهری، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران؛ (نویسنده مسئول).
3 - استاد، گروه جغرافیا و برنامهریزی شهری، واحد مرند، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مرند، ایران.
کلید واژه: شهر خلاق, آینده پؤوهی, متاورس, کلانشهر تبریز,
چکیده مقاله :
هدف: در کلانشهر تبریز بهعنوان پنجمین کلانشهر ایران، ضعف در برنامهریزی راهبردی و فقدان همراستایی نهادی با تحولات فناورانه جهانی، بهویژه در حوزه متاورس و شهر خلاق، نمودی از گسست ساختاری میان فناوری و بستر اجتماعی شهر است. از منظر جامعهشناسی شهری، این ناکارآمدی مانع بهرهبرداری از ظرفیتهای اقتصادی و فرهنگی شده و ضرورت بازطراحی حکمرانی شهری مبتنی بر نوآوری و مشارکت را برجسته میسازد.
روششناسی پژوهش: این پژوهش از نظر هدف کاربردی و از نظر روششناختی توصیفی- تحلیلی مبتنی بر رویکرد ترکیبی (کمی و کیفی) است. جامعه آماری این پژوهش شامل ۳۰ نفر از خبرگان حوزههای شهر خلاق، متاورس و برنامهریزی شهری بود که بهصورت روش نمونهگیری هدفمند انتخاب شدند. انتخاب این تعداد بر مبنای معیارهای روش دلفی و تحلیل کیفی مضمون، با تأکید بر عمق اطلاعات، تنوع تخصص و دستیابی به اشباع نظری صورت گرفته و نظرات براساس روشهای مرسوم آیندهپژوهی مبتنی بر تحلیل ساختاری و متقاطع در نرمافزارهای میک مک و سناریو ویزارد نتایج تجزیهوتحلیل شدهاند.
یافتهها: تحقیق نشان میدهد که برای تحقق شهر خلاق در بستر متاورس، میتوان 6 شاخص کلیدی که شامل کلان روندهای نوآوری و فناوری، تعامل اجتماعی، دسترسی و شمولیت، پایداری اقتصادی، فرهنگ و هویت و مدیریت و حکمرانی هستند را معرفی کرد. همچنین بر اساس یافتهها، از مجموع 217 وضعیت موجود در صفحه سناریو، تعداد 98 حالت معادل 16/45 درصد در وضعیت مطلوبی قرار دارند، 81 حالت معادل 37.33 درصد در حالت ایستا و 38 حالت معادل 17.51 درصد در وضعیت بحرانی هستند. همچنین، بیشترین تعداد حالات به وضعیت ایستا تعلق دارد و در انتها، حالات بحرانی کمترین سهم را به خود اختصاص دادهاند.
Objective:In Tabriz, recognized as Iran’s fifth-largest metropolis, weaknesses in strategic urban planning and the absence of institutional alignment with global technological transformations—particularly within the realms of the metaverse and the creative city—manifest as a structural disconnect between technology and the city’s social fabric. From an urban sociological perspective, this inefficiency has hindered the effective utilization of economic and cultural potentials, highlighting the urgent need for a reconfiguration of urban governance grounded in innovation and participatory approaches.
Research Methodology:This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of methodology, based on a mixed approach (quantitative and qualitative). The statistical population of this study included 30 experts in the fields of creative cities, metaverse, and urban planning, who were selected through purposive sampling. This number was selected based on the criteria of the Delphi method and qualitative content analysis, with an emphasis on depth of information, diversity of expertise, and achieving theoretical saturation. The opinions were analyzed based on conventional futures research methods based on structural and cross-sectional analysis in the MiqMac and Scenario Wizard software.
Findings:The research shows that to realize a creative city in the metaverse context, six key indicators can be introduced, which include the macro trends of innovation and technology, social interaction, access and inclusion, economic sustainability, culture and identity, and management and governance. Also, based on the findings, out of a total of 217 situations on the scenario page, 98 situations, equivalent to 45.16 percent, are in a favorable state, 81 situations, equivalent to 37.33 percent, are in a static state, and 38 situations, equivalent to 17.51 percent, are in a critical state.Also, the largest number of states belongs to the static state and finally, the critical states have the lowest share.
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