بررسی تغییرات روند ردپای آب در محصولات مختلف بخش های اقتصادی ایران
محورهای موضوعی : مدیریت منابع آبالمیرا تاروردی زاده 1 * , زهرا عابدی 2 , محمدصادق علی پور 3
1 - دانشکده عمران، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.
2 - دانشکده کشاورزی، آب، غذا و فراسودمندها، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.
3 - دانشکده آمار اقتصاد، مرکز تحقیقات آمار ایران، تهران، ایران.
کلید واژه: تحلیل داده – ستانده, آب مجازی, ردپای آب, تجارت آب,
چکیده مقاله :
امروزه با محدودیت منابع آب، بررسی اقتصادی بهره‌وری آب از اهمیت بالایی برخوردار است. در این بین ردپای آب یکی از مهم‌ترین مسائلی است که می‌توان آن را از نظر اقتصادی بررسی نمود. لذا پژوهش حاضر تغییرات ردپای آب در ایران را برای سال‌های 1380، 1390 و 1395 با استفاده از مدل اقتصادی داده- ستانده مورد بررسی قرار داده است. این پژوهش، بر اساس مدل داده- ستانده، رویکرد از بالا به پایین به سنجش و بررسی مصرف آب در بخش‌های اقتصادی کشور ایران پرداخته است. برای بررسی تکمیلی از شاخص‌های مختلفی از جمله فالکن مارک و شاخص سازمان ملل در بررسی ردپای آب استفاده شد. نتایج محاسبات ردپای آب نشان داد که مقدار ردپای کل در سال‌های 1380، 1390 و 1395 به ترتیب 2/94311، 6/104689 و 3/120483 میلیون مترمکعب بوده است. در بین بخش‌های کشاورزی، صنعت و خدمات، بخش کشاورزی با مقادیر ردپای3/88579، 6/98243 و 4/114457 میلیون مترمکعب برای سال‌های 1380، 1390 و 1395 بیشترین ردپای آب را داشته است. مقایسه مقادیر ردپای آب نشان داد که مقدار ردپای وارداتی از ردپای صادراتی بیشتر بوده است. بررسی تجارت آب مجازی کشور نشان داد ایران به دلیل واردات محصولات بیشتر از صادرات، طی سال‌های 1380 و1395 واردکننده خالص آب مجازی بوده است. شاخص فالکن مارک برای سال‌های 1380، 1390 و 1395 به ترتیب 2678، 1945 و 81/1697 مترمکعب محاسبه شد. در نهایت شاخص سازمان ملل برای سال‌های مذکور به ترتیب 8/53، 6/71 و 8/88 درصد محاسبه شد، که نشان از ورود ایران به بحران آبی دارد. در حالت کلی نتایج حاکی از وضعیت نگران‌کننده کشور از لحاظ آب و منابع آبی است و نیاز است تا مدیران و مسئولان بخش‌های مختلف کشور اهتمام کامل در توجه به این مهم داشته باشند.
With water resources becoming increasingly scarce, it is essential to conduct thorough studies on water efficiency. This study places a strong emphasis on the water footprint, which has emerged as a critical economic concern in recent years. Consequently, the research aims to analyze the evolving changes in Iran's water footprint specifically for the years 1380, 1390, and 1395. To achieve this, the input-output economic model was employed as the primary analytical tool. This model is characterized by a top-down approach, which effectively assesses and evaluates water consumption across the various economic sectors present within Iran.
The analysis incorporated a range of indicators to further explore the concept of virtual water. Among the indicators used were the Falcon Mark and the UN Sharia index, both of which provide valuable insights into water consumption patterns and resource allocation. The calculations that were carried out as part of this study revealed the total water footprints for the years under examination, with figures of 94,311.2 million cubic meters for 1380, 104,689.6 million cubic meters for 1390, and a significant increase to 120,483.3 million cubic meters for 1395. Notably, the agricultural sector emerged as the largest contributor to water footprint, with specific values recorded as 88,579.3 million cubic meters in 1380, followed by 98,243.6 million cubic meters in 1390, and reaching 114,457.4 million cubic meters in 1395.
Further comparisons within the data showed a distinct trend in which the import footprint surpassed that of the export footprint. This finding led to the identification of Iran as a net importer of virtual water during both 1380 and 1395, indicating that the country imported more agricultural and water-intensive products than it was able to export. The analysis also provided insights into the Falcon Mark index, which was recorded at values of 2,678 cubic meters in 1380, 1,945 cubic meters in 1390, and a lower value of 1,697.81 cubic meters in 1395. In tandem, the UN Sharia index reflected concern about water sustainability, with percentages recorded at 53.8% for 1380, increasing to 71.6% for 1390, and culminating in a concerning 88.8% for 1395.
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