Futurology of Multi-Criteria Decision Making Techniques Using Philosophical Assumptions of Paradigms in Scenario Writing

Subject Areas : Business Strategy

Mehdi  Roghani ¹ (Department of Industrial Management, South Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran)
Mahmoud  Modiri ² (Department of Industrial Management, South Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran)
Kiamars  Fathi Hafshjani ³ (Department of Industrial Management, South Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran)
AbuTurab  Alirezaei ⁴ (Department of Industrial Management, South Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran)

Received: 2020-07-28 Accepted : 2020-11-13 Published : 2021-01-06

Keywords: Multi-Criteria Decision Making, Scenario Writing, Futures Research, Paradigm,

Abstract :

There are many opportunities and threats in the decision-making environment for managers, and an organization must use research and information systems to change, monitor, and anticipate this environment. Futurism reflects how tomorrow reality gives birth to tomorrow's reality is. The purpose of this research; Analyzing the role of futures studies in the existing patterns of critical factors of multi-criteria decision-making techniques in operations research using the philosophical assumptions of the classical and critical paradigms and finally determining the appropriate strategy based on these components, to increase success and life expectancy. The present study intends to formulate exploratory scenarios of this knowledge by using the critical uncertainty approach. To develop credible scenarios of knowledge of decision techniques, the opinions of 15 experts in this field were collected using the fuzzy Delphi approach and through the critical uncertainty questionnaire. After extracting the most important uncertainties, plausible scenarios of decision-making techniques were determined with the help of experts. According to the results obtained from the opinion of experts from the critical uncertainty questionnaire, four research uncertainties were identified, identified and the scenario design criteria were used. Each of the four cases, which includes low attention to social issues versus high attention to social issues, low attention to ethical models versus high attention to ethical models, low attention to soft approaches versus high attention to soft approaches, Low attention to complex issues versus high attention to complex issues indicates a specific dual situation in the future. Each of these dual situations indicates uncertainty about the future of multi-criteria decision making. Based on these uncertainties, three scenarios were identified. These scenarios include Achilles heel, phoenix, and heel. Also, semi-structured interviews with the theme analysis approach were used, and the philosophy of past and future approaches in this field was reviewed and critiqued.

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