نقش شیوه فعالیت مدیریت سود به عنوان معیاری برای خوشبینی به بازدههای آتی در یک مدل تصمیمگیری منطقی
محورهای موضوعی : آسیب شناسی رفتار در بازار سرمایه
الهام عبدلی
1
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خدیجه خدابخشی پاریجان
2
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1 - گروه حسابداری، واحد تهران غرب، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
2 - دانشجوی دکتری، گروه حسابداری، واحد تهران غرب، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.
کلید واژه: مدیریت سود, خوشبینی, بازده, مدل تصمیمگیری منطقی.,
چکیده مقاله :
هدف: اطلاعات حسابداری در سودمندی تصمیم به عنوان مفهومی از تئوری بازی مورد آزمایش قرار گرفته است که تأکید میکند تلاش برای حداکثر کردن بازده، امکان اجرای مدیریت سود مثبت را تقویت میکند. در حسابداری مثبت، موضوع مورد توجه نه ذاتاً شیوه گزارش سود و کیفیت آن، بلکه نحوه دستکاری آن و جنبه علامتدهی آن به سرمایهگذاران، همره با سیاستهای مالیاتی و شیوه تقسیم سود و رشد فروش شرکت برای آگاهیبخشی به سهامداران از عملکرد آتی شرکت است. هدف این پژوهش بررسی نقش شیوه فعالیت مدیریت سود به عنوان معیاری برای خوشبینی به بازدههای آتی در یک مدل تصمیمگیری منطقی است. به عبارتی کیفیت سود ناشی از حسابداری عاقلانه را به عنوان معیاری برای سنجش کیفیت خوشبینی و اعتماد به بازدههای آتی مورد بررسی قرار داده است.
روش: اطلاعات این پژوهش برگرفته از صورتهای مالی 164 شرکت در بازه زمانی 1393-1402 است. پژوهش حاضر از نظر هدف کاربردی، و از نظر ماهیت و محتوا از نوع همبستگی است. برای آزمون وجود رابطه بین متغیرها و معنادار بودن مدل برآورده شده از روش رگرسیون چندگانه مبتنی بر تحلیل پانل دیتا استفاده شده است.
یافتهها: نتایج نشان داد کیفیت سود منتج از دستکاری، بر ادراک سرمایهگذاران تأثیر مثبتی دارد و در پیشبینی اطمینان به بازده آتی مؤثر است. همچنین مدیریت صحیح مالیاتی زمانی که انطباق با استانداردهای حسابداری در سطح بالایی است، بازده آتی را افزایش میدهد. بهعلاوه سود تقسیمی و رشد فروش به عنوان شاخصهای همسانی بالای رشد کسبوکار به عنوان متغیرهای تعدیلکننده، تأثیر مثبت کیفیت فعالیت مدیریت سود و مدیریت مالیات بر بازده آتی را تقویت میکنند.
نتیجهگیری: در حسابداری اثباتی، آنچه مهم است، روش گزارش سود هر سهم نیست، بلکه نحوه دستکاری آن و جنبه علامتدهی به سرمایهگذاران، همراه با سیاستهای مالیاتی، روشهای تقسیم سود و رشد فروش شرکت برای آگاه کردن سهامداران از عملکرد آینده شرکت است. در این حالت، تصویر جامعی از روابط متقابل بین سرمایهگذاران و مدیریت در نظریه بازیها ارائه میشود که در آن احتمال تصمیم هر یک از طرفین در یک ارتباط دوطرفه در مورد باورهای مثبت در آینده تخمین زده میشود.
Introduction: Accounting information in decision utility has been tested as a concept of game theory that emphasizes that the effort to maximize returns strengthens the possibility of implementing positive earnings management. Also, under the influence of signaling theory, dividends and sales growth are used as high-congruence indicators of business growth to examine the positive impact of high-quality financial reporting on future performance [1]. Sales growth is reinforced as a “positive signal” in predicting future certainty and dividends as a signal for earnings quality in order to be optimistic in achieving expected future returns, which has the same characteristics as tax management in resolving severe internal conflicts [2],[3]. In fact, these empirical conditions suggest the existence of game theory as a rational model for maximizing utility [4]. Therefore, this study tests the role of the quality of real profit manipulation and tax management on future performance, which is related to business sustainability.
Methods: This research is descriptive correlational in nature and content. EVIEWS software was used to analyze the data. statistical population of the research included all companies listed in the Iranian capital market over a 10-year period during the period 2013-2022. After screening the statistical population and considering the following criteria, 164 companies were selected as the statistical population: 1. The company was listed on the stock exchange before 2013 and was active on the stock exchange until the end of 2014; 2. The company's fiscal year ended on March 11 and there was no change in the fiscal year during the research period; 3. The company's main activity is not investment, banking, leasing, or financial institution. The dependent variable is future returns. Returns include the difference in price at the beginning and end of the period, cash dividends per share, and benefits from capital increases in the form of share purchases or dividends. The dependent variable is the quality of earnings management activity, which is measured by four indicators: Abnormal Cash Flow Operational, Discretionary Expenses, Abnormal Production Expenses and Abnormal Component. The effective tax rate is used as an indicator to measure tax management, which is calculated as the ratio of declared tax expense to net income before tax. Since there is an inverse relationship between tax management and effective tax rate; that is, a high effective tax rate indicates lower tax management; Therefore, to neutralize this effect when estimating research models, the effective tax rate must be multiplied by (-1). Dividends are also calculated by dividing cash dividends by net income. Sales growth is the growth in sales of company i in year t compared to year t-1, in other words, current year sales minus previous year sales divided by previous year sales.
Findings: The role of earnings management activity as a measure of optimism about future returns in a rational decision model was examined. The index used to measure earnings quality under the influence of real earnings management manipulation was examined as a measure of optimism and confidence in future returns. Also, under the influence of game theory, since earnings quality shows belief and confidence in the sustainability of the business; the effect of sales growth and dividends as a signal for earnings quality was examined for optimism in achieving future returns. The results showed that the quality of earnings resulting from manipulation has a positive effect on investors' perceptions and is effective in predicting confidence in future returns. Also, proper tax management increases future returns when compliance with accounting standards is at a high level. In addition, dividends and sales growth as high-conformity indicators of business growth as moderating variables strengthen the positive effect of the quality of earnings management activity and tax management on future returns. Sales growth and dividend payout were examined as a signal for earnings quality in order to be optimistic about achieving future returns. Influenced by signaling theory and game theory, the behavior of managers and investors is effective on each other. The recognition of conflict between groups acting in a prudent manner expands the scope of the situation that is in the spotlight in game theory. That is, the quality of earnings resulting from manipulation, when it complies with accounting standards, has a positive effect on investors' perceptions. Manipulation activities and tax management are critical measurable factors in predicting the certainty of future returns. The results also showed
that the role of sound tax management changes from negative to positive when compliance with accounting standards is high. Prudent accounting behavior reflects high consistency in the dissemination of high earnings quality. Second, dividends are used as the most effective signaling indicator that affects earnings quality. Also, tax management and dividend payout have a reciprocal relationship aimed at resolving the intensity of internal conflict. Management is concerned with dividend distribution in order to obtain a low cost of capital as an absolute comparative advantage. High sales growth is also an indication of continuity of activity, which is considered to increase compliance with accounting standards. A company with a clear and stable outlook has the highest compliance with accounting standards and has the lowest agency costs and tax evasion.
Conclusion: The results showed that what is important is not the method of reporting earnings per share, but rather the way it is manipulated and the aspect of signaling to investors. In positive accounting, what is important is not the method of reporting earnings per share, but rather the way it is manipulated and the aspect of signaling to investors, along with tax policies, profit sharing methods, and the company's sales growth to inform shareholders about the company's future performance.
In this case, a comprehensive picture of the mutual relations between investors and management
is presented in game theory, in which the probability of each party's decision in a two-way communication is estimated about positive beliefs in the future. This research provides new insights into the simulation of a rational decision model with the aim of gaining a better understanding of the performance of positive earnings management.
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