ارزیابی کارایی مدل KINEROS2 برای شبیه‌سازی هیدروگراف سیلاب ( مطالعه موردی حوضه آبخیز زیارت )
محورهای موضوعی : مدلسازی فرسایش آب و خاک، زمین لغزش، GIS , AHPعیسی ملائی فر 1 , واحد بردی شیخ 2 , عبدالرضا بهره مند 3 , حسن فرامرزی 4
1 - آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، گرگان، ایران
2 - آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، گرگان، ایران
3 - آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، گرگان، ایران
4 - دکتری جنگلداری دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم دریایی نور، ایران
کلید واژه: سیل, حوزه آبخیز, هیدرولوژی, مدلKINEROS2,
چکیده مقاله :
مدل فرسایش- رواناب KINEROS2، یک مدل هیدرولوژیکی توزیعی فرسایش- رواناب و از نوع فیزیکی بوده که در سازمان کشاورزی امریکا و سرویس تحقیقات کشاورزی جهت تشریح فرآیندهای برگاب، نفوذ، رواناب سطحی و فرسایش حوضه آبخیز پایه‌گذاری شده است. داده‌های اصلی مورد نیاز مدل شامل نقشه‌های DEM، کاربری اراضی و همچنین داده‌های بارش حوضه آبخیز بوده و قابلیت شبیه‌سازی هیدروگراف‌های سیلاب با گام زمانی دقیقه را دارد. برای ارزیابی کارایی مدل، تعداد 8 واقعه سیلاب و بارش متناظر حوضه آبخیز زیارت انتخاب و به دو دسته 4 تایی تقسیم، که از دسته اول جهت اجرا و واسنجی و از دسته دوم جهت اعتبارسنجی مدل استفاده گردید. جهت انجام واسنجی از روش دستی و از روش یک پارامتر در هر بار جهت بررسی آنالیز حساسیت پارامترها استفاده گردید. پارامترهای هدایت هیدرولیکی اشباع، ضریب مانینگ، میانگین حرکت مویینگی، ظرفیت برگاب مورد واسنجی قرار گرفتند. به منظور ارزیابی کارایی مدل در دو مرحله واسنجی و اعتبارسنجی از شاخص‌های ضریب ناش- ساتکلیف، درصد خطا در دبی اوج، معیار جمعی، ضریب تبیین و ضریب تبیین وزنی استفاده گردید. که برای دوره واسنجی متوسط ضریب ناش- ساتکلیف 665/0 و برای مرحله اعتبارسنجی 797/0 بدست آمد. نتایج ارزیابی مدل KINEROS2، در حوضه آبخیز زیارت نشان می‌دهد که مدل مولفه‌های هیدرولوژیکی را با دقت قابل قبول برآورد می‌نماید.
The Kinematic runoff and erosion model, KINEROS2, is an event-oriented, physically-based model to describe the processes of interception, infiltration, surface runoff and erosion from watersheds.DEM, land use, soil type and precipitation are main input data required for this model. Time scale of the KINEROS2 model is capable of simulating the flood hydrograph on a time minute. For evaluation of KINEROS2 Model, 8 rainfall-runoff flood events in the Ziarat watershed were selected. The events have been divided into two sets. The first set was used to run and calibrate the model and the second set was used to validate the model results. One factor at time (OAT) method has been used to carry out sensitivity analysis. The Saturated hydraulic conductivity, Manning roughness coefficient, mean capillary drive and interception depth have been chosen for manual calibration of the model. Various evaluation criteria including Nash-Sutcliffe, percent error in peak, aggregated Measure, coefficient of determination r2 and weighed coefficient of determination r2 were used to evaluate the model results. Results showed that the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency is 0.665 for calibration period and 0.797 for validation period. The KINEROS2 model estimates the hydrological parameters with good accuracy in the study area.
References
1- Aghaei Daneshvar, F., Khanjani, M., 2005. The structure of the KINEROS2 model in estimating runoff and sediment runoff in the catchment area. Proceedings of the 2nd Conference on Watershed Management and Water and Soil Management, March 2005, Kerman.
2- Aghaei Daneshvar, F., Khanjani, M., 2007. Estimation and prediction of discharge flood discharge and sediment load at the watershed of Chashmeh-e-Aroos Kerman basin with implementation of KINEROS2 model, through the AGWA tool. Proceedings of the 9th National Irrigation and Evaporation Seminar, Bahman 2007, Kerman.
3- Al-Qurashi, A., Mcintyre, N., Wheater, H., and Unkrich, C., 2008. Application of the Kineros2 rainfall-runoff model to an arid catchment in Oman. Journal of Hydrology, 355: 91-105.
4- Alwankar, S., R., Saghafian, B., 2009. Flood modeling in the catchment area by ADHM Distributed Model. Proceedings of the 5th National Conference on Watershed Management Sciences and Engineering (Sustainable Management of Natural Disasters), Gorgan. P. 1319-1327.
5- Ashour, R.A., 2000. Description of a simplified GIS_based surface water model for an arid catchmen in Jordan, In: proceeding of the 2000 ESRI user conference, ESRI, San Digo, USA.
6- Azizi, m., 2012. Simulation of the effect of precipitation scenarios on flow hydrographs using the Wetspa distributive model in the Ziarat Watershed. Master's Degree In Watershed Management. Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources.
7- Bahremand, A., 2006. Simulating the effects of reforestation on floods using spatially distributed hydrologic modeling and GIS. PhD Thesis, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Belgium.
8- Burns, I.S., Scott, S., Levick, L., Hernandez, M., Goodrich, D.C., Semmens, D.J. and Kepner, W.G., 2004. Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA)-A GIS-based hydrologic modeling tool, Documentation and User Manual Version 1.4. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, ARS-1446.
9- Buther, J., Shoemaker, L., Trevor clements, J., Thirolle, E., 1998. Watershed modeling. Watershed Academy Web.
10- Carreras, N.M., Soler, M., Hernández, E. and Gallart, F., 2007. Simulating badland erosion with KINEROS2 in a small Mediterranean mountain basin (Vallcebre, Eastern Pyrenees). Institute of Earth Sciences (Jaume Almera) CSIC, Barcelona, Spain. Catena 71: 145-154.
11- Dody, A., Shillito, R., Givati, A., Siegel, A., Galili, U., Eisenberg, O., 2017. Rainfall, runoff and erosion analyses in a sandy desert watershed under mid-latitude cyclones using the Kineros2 model. Int. J. Environ. Prot. 7(1): 8-19
12-Golestan Consulting Engineers. Exploitation, Implementation and Watershed Studies in Ziarat Basin.
13- Goodrich, D.C., 1990. Geometric simplification of a distributed rainfall-runoff model over a range of basin scales. PhD Dissertation, Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona.
14- Hamidpour, M., Jalalian, A., Aphuni, M., Ghorbani, B., 1391. Analysis of sensitivity, calibration and validation of the Yorousym model for prediction of runoff in the South Karun watershed. Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology, Water and Soil Science. Sixteenth year No. 62. Winter, 2012.
15- Hernandez, M., Miller, S.N., Goodrich, D.C., Gof, R.F., Kepner, W.G., Edmonds, C.M. and Jones, K.B., 2000. Modeling runoff response to land cover and rainfall spatial variability in semi-arid watersheds. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment. 64: 285-298.
16- Kalth, A., 2010. Evaluation of the Efficiency of the LISEM Physical Model in the Golestan Provincial and Kachik Basin. Master's degree in Watershed Management. Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources.
17- Karandesh, F., 2006. Comparison of Basin Behavior in Distributed and Integrated Flood Simulation, Master's Degree, Tehran University.
18- Karimi M., Maliki Nejad, H., Abghiri, H., Azizian, M., 2011. Evaluation of different methods of flood hydrograph simulation using HEC-HMS software package. Iranian Journal of Water Research. Fifth year 9: 23-34.
19- Memarian, H., Balasundram, S.K., Talib, J., Teh Boon Sung, C., Sood, M.A., Abbaspour, K.C., and Haghizadeh, A., 2012. Hydrologic analysis of a tropical watershed using KINEROS2. Environment Asia 5(1): 84-93.
20- Miller, S. N., Semmens, D.J., Miller, R.C., Hernandez, M., Goodrich, D.C., Miller, W.P., Kepner, W.G., and Ebert, D.W., 2002. GIS-based hydrologic modeling: the automated geospatial watershed assessment tool, Second Federal Interagency Hydrologic Modeling Conference, Las Vegas, NV.Las Vegas, NV, USA.
21- Mohammadi, M., 2011. Flood Hydrograph Modeling in Jafarabad Basin in GIS Environment. Master's Degree in Watershed Management. Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources.
22- Najafi, M. Translation of hydrological systems of rainfall-runoff modeling, VP Singh. Tehran University Press. Vol. I, p. 578.
23- Parlange, J.Y., Lisle, I., Braddock, R.D. and Smith, R.E., 1982. The three-parameter infiltration equation. Soil Science. 133(6): 337-41.
24- Rovey, E.W., 1974. A kinematic model for upland watersheds. Unpublished M.Sc. Thesis, Colorado State University, Fort Collins.
25- Safari, A., De Smedt, F. and Moreda, F., 2009. WetSpa model application in the Distributed Model Intercomparison Project (DMIP2). Journal of Hydrology, doi: 10.1016. 2009.
26- Sayed Kaboli, H., Akhundaali, A. M., 2009. Evaluation of Rainfall Methods in Flood Hydrograph Simulation Case Study: Kasaliyan Watershed Basin. Proceedings of the 5th National Conference on Watershed Management Sciences and Engineering (Sustainable Management of Natural Disasters), Gorgan. P. 238-247.
27- Semmens, D.J., Goodrich, D.C., Unkrich, C.L. and Smith, R.E., 2004. KINEROS2 modeling framework, Agricultural Research Service, ARS-77, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Tucson, Arizona.
28- Smith, R.E., Goodrich, D.C. and Quinton, J., 1995. Dynamic, distributed simulation of watershed erosion: the KlNEROS2 and EUROSEM models. J., Soil Water Conserv. 50(5): 517-20.
29- Tajbakhsh, S.M., Memarian, H., Sobhani, M., Aghakhani Afshar, A.H., 2018. Kinematic runoff and erosion model efficiency assessment for hydrological simulation of semi-arid watersheds. Global J. Environ. Sci. Manage.,4(2): 127-140, Spring 2018. doi: 10.22034/gjesm.2018.04.02.002
30- Toy, T.J., Foster, G.R. and Renard, K. G., 2002. Soil erosion: processes, prediction, measurement and control. John Wiley and Sons Pub., N Y.
31- Woolhiser, D.A., Hanson, C.L. and Kuhlman, A.R., 1970. Overland flow on rangeland watersheds. Journal of Hydrology. 9(2): 336-56.
32-Woolhiser, D.A., Smith, R.E. and Goodrich, D.C. 1990. A kinematic runoff and erosion model. Documentation and User Manual, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service. 77: 130.
33- Yagoby, F., Bahremand, A., 2011 River Flood Simulation Using WetSpa Hydrological-Distributed Model in Chehel-Chay Watershed in Golestan Province. Journal of Soil and Soil Conservation Research. 3 (18): 65-76.
34- Zainivand, H., 2010. Simulation of Spatial Distribution of Soil Erosion and Sediment in Watershed Scale. Proceedings of the 6th National Conference on Watershed Engineering Sciences and Watershed Management. Department of Natural Resources Tarbiat Modarres University. P. 243.
35- Ziegler, A.D., Giambelluca, T.W. and Sutherland, R.A., 2001. Erosion prediction on unpaved mountain roads in northern Thailand.Validation of dynamic erodibilit modelling using KINEROS2. Hydrological Processes. 15: 337-358.
_||_References
1- Aghaei Daneshvar, F., Khanjani, M., 2005. The structure of the KINEROS2 model in estimating runoff and sediment runoff in the catchment area. Proceedings of the 2nd Conference on Watershed Management and Water and Soil Management, March 2005, Kerman.
2- Aghaei Daneshvar, F., Khanjani, M., 2007. Estimation and prediction of discharge flood discharge and sediment load at the watershed of Chashmeh-e-Aroos Kerman basin with implementation of KINEROS2 model, through the AGWA tool. Proceedings of the 9th National Irrigation and Evaporation Seminar, Bahman 2007, Kerman.
3- Al-Qurashi, A., Mcintyre, N., Wheater, H., and Unkrich, C., 2008. Application of the Kineros2 rainfall-runoff model to an arid catchment in Oman. Journal of Hydrology, 355: 91-105.
4- Alwankar, S., R., Saghafian, B., 2009. Flood modeling in the catchment area by ADHM Distributed Model. Proceedings of the 5th National Conference on Watershed Management Sciences and Engineering (Sustainable Management of Natural Disasters), Gorgan. P. 1319-1327.
5- Ashour, R.A., 2000. Description of a simplified GIS_based surface water model for an arid catchmen in Jordan, In: proceeding of the 2000 ESRI user conference, ESRI, San Digo, USA.
6- Azizi, m., 2012. Simulation of the effect of precipitation scenarios on flow hydrographs using the Wetspa distributive model in the Ziarat Watershed. Master's Degree In Watershed Management. Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources.
7- Bahremand, A., 2006. Simulating the effects of reforestation on floods using spatially distributed hydrologic modeling and GIS. PhD Thesis, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Belgium.
8- Burns, I.S., Scott, S., Levick, L., Hernandez, M., Goodrich, D.C., Semmens, D.J. and Kepner, W.G., 2004. Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA)-A GIS-based hydrologic modeling tool, Documentation and User Manual Version 1.4. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, ARS-1446.
9- Buther, J., Shoemaker, L., Trevor clements, J., Thirolle, E., 1998. Watershed modeling. Watershed Academy Web.
10- Carreras, N.M., Soler, M., Hernández, E. and Gallart, F., 2007. Simulating badland erosion with KINEROS2 in a small Mediterranean mountain basin (Vallcebre, Eastern Pyrenees). Institute of Earth Sciences (Jaume Almera) CSIC, Barcelona, Spain. Catena 71: 145-154.
11- Dody, A., Shillito, R., Givati, A., Siegel, A., Galili, U., Eisenberg, O., 2017. Rainfall, runoff and erosion analyses in a sandy desert watershed under mid-latitude cyclones using the Kineros2 model. Int. J. Environ. Prot. 7(1): 8-19
12-Golestan Consulting Engineers. Exploitation, Implementation and Watershed Studies in Ziarat Basin.
13- Goodrich, D.C., 1990. Geometric simplification of a distributed rainfall-runoff model over a range of basin scales. PhD Dissertation, Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona.
14- Hamidpour, M., Jalalian, A., Aphuni, M., Ghorbani, B., 1391. Analysis of sensitivity, calibration and validation of the Yorousym model for prediction of runoff in the South Karun watershed. Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology, Water and Soil Science. Sixteenth year No. 62. Winter, 2012.
15- Hernandez, M., Miller, S.N., Goodrich, D.C., Gof, R.F., Kepner, W.G., Edmonds, C.M. and Jones, K.B., 2000. Modeling runoff response to land cover and rainfall spatial variability in semi-arid watersheds. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment. 64: 285-298.
16- Kalth, A., 2010. Evaluation of the Efficiency of the LISEM Physical Model in the Golestan Provincial and Kachik Basin. Master's degree in Watershed Management. Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources.
17- Karandesh, F., 2006. Comparison of Basin Behavior in Distributed and Integrated Flood Simulation, Master's Degree, Tehran University.
18- Karimi M., Maliki Nejad, H., Abghiri, H., Azizian, M., 2011. Evaluation of different methods of flood hydrograph simulation using HEC-HMS software package. Iranian Journal of Water Research. Fifth year 9: 23-34.
19- Memarian, H., Balasundram, S.K., Talib, J., Teh Boon Sung, C., Sood, M.A., Abbaspour, K.C., and Haghizadeh, A., 2012. Hydrologic analysis of a tropical watershed using KINEROS2. Environment Asia 5(1): 84-93.
20- Miller, S. N., Semmens, D.J., Miller, R.C., Hernandez, M., Goodrich, D.C., Miller, W.P., Kepner, W.G., and Ebert, D.W., 2002. GIS-based hydrologic modeling: the automated geospatial watershed assessment tool, Second Federal Interagency Hydrologic Modeling Conference, Las Vegas, NV.Las Vegas, NV, USA.
21- Mohammadi, M., 2011. Flood Hydrograph Modeling in Jafarabad Basin in GIS Environment. Master's Degree in Watershed Management. Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources.
22- Najafi, M. Translation of hydrological systems of rainfall-runoff modeling, VP Singh. Tehran University Press. Vol. I, p. 578.
23- Parlange, J.Y., Lisle, I., Braddock, R.D. and Smith, R.E., 1982. The three-parameter infiltration equation. Soil Science. 133(6): 337-41.
24- Rovey, E.W., 1974. A kinematic model for upland watersheds. Unpublished M.Sc. Thesis, Colorado State University, Fort Collins.
25- Safari, A., De Smedt, F. and Moreda, F., 2009. WetSpa model application in the Distributed Model Intercomparison Project (DMIP2). Journal of Hydrology, doi: 10.1016. 2009.
26- Sayed Kaboli, H., Akhundaali, A. M., 2009. Evaluation of Rainfall Methods in Flood Hydrograph Simulation Case Study: Kasaliyan Watershed Basin. Proceedings of the 5th National Conference on Watershed Management Sciences and Engineering (Sustainable Management of Natural Disasters), Gorgan. P. 238-247.
27- Semmens, D.J., Goodrich, D.C., Unkrich, C.L. and Smith, R.E., 2004. KINEROS2 modeling framework, Agricultural Research Service, ARS-77, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Tucson, Arizona.
28- Smith, R.E., Goodrich, D.C. and Quinton, J., 1995. Dynamic, distributed simulation of watershed erosion: the KlNEROS2 and EUROSEM models. J., Soil Water Conserv. 50(5): 517-20.
29- Tajbakhsh, S.M., Memarian, H., Sobhani, M., Aghakhani Afshar, A.H., 2018. Kinematic runoff and erosion model efficiency assessment for hydrological simulation of semi-arid watersheds. Global J. Environ. Sci. Manage.,4(2): 127-140, Spring 2018. doi: 10.22034/gjesm.2018.04.02.002
30- Toy, T.J., Foster, G.R. and Renard, K. G., 2002. Soil erosion: processes, prediction, measurement and control. John Wiley and Sons Pub., N Y.
31- Woolhiser, D.A., Hanson, C.L. and Kuhlman, A.R., 1970. Overland flow on rangeland watersheds. Journal of Hydrology. 9(2): 336-56.
32-Woolhiser, D.A., Smith, R.E. and Goodrich, D.C. 1990. A kinematic runoff and erosion model. Documentation and User Manual, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service. 77: 130.
33- Yagoby, F., Bahremand, A., 2011 River Flood Simulation Using WetSpa Hydrological-Distributed Model in Chehel-Chay Watershed in Golestan Province. Journal of Soil and Soil Conservation Research. 3 (18): 65-76.
34- Zainivand, H., 2010. Simulation of Spatial Distribution of Soil Erosion and Sediment in Watershed Scale. Proceedings of the 6th National Conference on Watershed Engineering Sciences and Watershed Management. Department of Natural Resources Tarbiat Modarres University. P. 243.
35- Ziegler, A.D., Giambelluca, T.W. and Sutherland, R.A., 2001. Erosion prediction on unpaved mountain roads in northern Thailand.Validation of dynamic erodibilit modelling using KINEROS2. Hydrological Processes. 15: 337-358.