تأثیر همه‌گیری کرونا بر تعادل مالی و حجم تجارت خارجی ایران
محورهای موضوعی : اقتصاد و توسعه پایدار
لیلا گرجی
1
(دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد سلامت، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.)
کلید واژه: اقتصاد, تجارت خارجی, کرونا, ویروس کرونا, تعادل ملّی,
چکیده مقاله :
شیوع ویروس کرونا به طور جدی بر فعالیت‌های اقتصادی، مانند تراز مالی عمومی جهانی، نرخ بی‌کاری جهانی، نرخ تورم جهانی، حجم تجارت جهانی و نرخ رشد جهانی تأثیر منفی گذشته است. در ادبیات اقتصاد کلان، وجود پدیده‌های مذکور بعنوان شاخص‌های بی‌ثباتی اقتصادی قلمداد می‌شوند که بر تعادل مالی و حجم تجارت خارجی مؤثرند. هدف اصلی تحقیق حاضر، بررسی تأثیر همه‌گیری کرونا بر تعادل مالی و حجم تجارت خارجی در ایران می‌باشد. در این تحقیق، تأثیر همه‌گیری کرونا بر تعادل مالی و حجم تجارت خارجی در ایران در سال 1399 با استفاده از داده‌های سری زمانی و مدل خود توضیح‌برداری (VAR) مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. در این تحقیق از تجزیه و تحلیل رگرسیونی با استفاده از الگوی خود توضیح برداری (VAR) به روش هم جمعی یوهانسن – جوسیلیوس برای برازش و تجزیه و تحلیل داده‌ها به کمک نرم افزار ایویوز استفاده شده است. یافته‌ها تأثیرپذیری تعادل مالی و حجم تجارت خارجی از همه‌گیری کرونا را نشان می‌دهد و مورد تأیید قرار داده است. همچنین، نتایج نشان داد که حجم تجارت ایران از بیماری کرونا و همچنین سیاست‌های تجاری و اقتصادی با خارج تأثیر زیادی می‌پذیرد.
The spread of the coronavirus has seriously affected economic activities such as the global general financial balance, the global unemployment rate, the global inflation rate, the volume of global trade, and the global growth rate. Which affects the financial balance and volume of foreign trade. The main goal of this research is to investigate the impact of the Corona epidemic on the financial balance and volume of foreign trade in Iran. In this research, the impact of the Corona epidemic on the financial balance and the volume of foreign trade in Iran in 2019 was investigated using time series data and a self-explanatory model (VAR). In this research, regression analysis using the vector self-explanatory model (VAR) using the Johansen-Jusilius co-aggregation method was used to fit and analyze the data using EViews software. The findings show and confirm the effectiveness of the financial balance and the volume of foreign trade from the Corona epidemic. Based on the results, showed that Iran's trade volume is greatly affected by the corona disease as well as foreign trade and economic policies.
Adeyemi Afolabi, J. (2022). Financial Development, Trade Openness, and Economic Growth
in Nigeria. Iranian Economic Review 26(1), 237-254. http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/35350
Behrang, F., & Bagherzadeh Houshmandi, K. (2019). The effect of the corona virus on the instability of the economy of Iran and the world the sixth national conference of modern researches in the field of humanities, economics and accounting of Iran, Tehran.
Deng, G. (2020). The Fiscal-Budget Flexibility and the Expansion of COVID-19. School of Economics and Commerce, 4(10), 45-66.
Edwards, S. S. (2019). Openness, productivity and growth: what do we really know? Economic Journal, 108, 383-398.
Falvey, R. E. (2020). Commercial Policy and Intra-industry Trade. Journal of international economics, 11(4), 495-511.
Greenaway, D., Morgan, W., & Wright, P. (2019). Trade liberalization and growth in developing countries. Journal of Development Economics, 67, 229-244.
Hayakawa, K., & Mukunoki, H. (2020). Impacts of covid-19 on international trade : evidence from the first quarter of 2020 (Vol. 791). Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO).
Jafari, R., Kohestani, A., & Nejadzare, S. (2019). The impact of Corona on the economy of Iran and the world, the first conference on industrial engineering. economics and management 56-78.
Khan, M. A., & Qayyum, A. (2017). Trade Liberalization, Financial Sector Reforms and Growth. MPRA, 18. https://ideas.repec.org/p/pid/wpaper/200718.html
Lokaz, H. (2020). The COVID-19 Pandemic and International Trade: Temporary Turbulence or Paradigm Shift? European Journal of Risk Regulation, 11(2), 337-342.
Lopez, P. P. (2005). The Impact of Trade Liberalisation on Exports, Imports, the Balance of Payments and Growth: the Case of Mexico. Department of Economics University of Kent. .
Lutkepohl, H. (2005). New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis Springer-Verlag, Berlin. .
Malek, M. (2004). Economic Globalization (from Fantasy to Reality). Danesh and Andisheh. , Tehran.
Melitz, M. J. (2003). The Impact of Trade on Intra-industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity Econometrica, 71, 1695-1725.
Melo, O., & Vogt, M. G. (2018). Determinants of the demand for imports of Venezuela. Journal of Development Economics, 14, 351-358
Meneti, H. (2019). Examining the effects of the Corona virus, Covid-19, on the global economy. Research Institute of Human Sciences and Social Studies, Jihad University, 4(9), 56-88.
Miller, S., & Upadhyay, M. (2000). The effects of openness, trade orientation, and human capital on total factor productivity. Journal of Development Economics, 63, 399-423.
Parikh, A. (2019). elationship Between Trade Liberalisation, Growth and Balance of Payments in Developing Countries: An Econometric Study (Vol. 286). University of East Anglia.
Paus, E., Reinhardt, N., & Robinson, M. (2003). Trade Liberalization and Productivity Growth in Latin American Manufacturing 1970–98. Policy Reform, 6(1), 1–15.
Taheri Nia, M., & Hassanvand, A. (2019). The economic consequences of the covid-19 disease on Iran's economy; Emphasis on employment. Nursing Management Quarterly, 9(3), 43-58.
Zheng, C. (2021). The impact of COVID-19 on the efficiency of microfinance institutions. International Review of Economics and Finance, 71(8), 45-78.
_||_Adeyemi Afolabi, J. (2022). Financial Development, Trade Openness, and Economic Growth
in Nigeria. Iranian Economic Review 26(1), 237-254. http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/35350
Behrang, F., & Bagherzadeh Houshmandi, K. (2019). The effect of the corona virus on the instability of the economy of Iran and the world the sixth national conference of modern researches in the field of humanities, economics and accounting of Iran, Tehran.
Deng, G. (2020). The Fiscal-Budget Flexibility and the Expansion of COVID-19. School of Economics and Commerce, 4(10), 45-66.
Edwards, S. S. (2019). Openness, productivity and growth: what do we really know? Economic Journal, 108, 383-398.
Falvey, R. E. (2020). Commercial Policy and Intra-industry Trade. Journal of international economics, 11(4), 495-511.
Greenaway, D., Morgan, W., & Wright, P. (2019). Trade liberalization and growth in developing countries. Journal of Development Economics, 67, 229-244.
Hayakawa, K., & Mukunoki, H. (2020). Impacts of covid-19 on international trade : evidence from the first quarter of 2020 (Vol. 791). Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO).
Jafari, R., Kohestani, A., & Nejadzare, S. (2019). The impact of Corona on the economy of Iran and the world, the first conference on industrial engineering. economics and management 56-78.
Khan, M. A., & Qayyum, A. (2017). Trade Liberalization, Financial Sector Reforms and Growth. MPRA, 18. https://ideas.repec.org/p/pid/wpaper/200718.html
Lokaz, H. (2020). The COVID-19 Pandemic and International Trade: Temporary Turbulence or Paradigm Shift? European Journal of Risk Regulation, 11(2), 337-342.
Lopez, P. P. (2005). The Impact of Trade Liberalisation on Exports, Imports, the Balance of Payments and Growth: the Case of Mexico. Department of Economics University of Kent. .
Lutkepohl, H. (2005). New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis Springer-Verlag, Berlin. .
Malek, M. (2004). Economic Globalization (from Fantasy to Reality). Danesh and Andisheh. , Tehran.
Melitz, M. J. (2003). The Impact of Trade on Intra-industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity Econometrica, 71, 1695-1725.
Melo, O., & Vogt, M. G. (2018). Determinants of the demand for imports of Venezuela. Journal of Development Economics, 14, 351-358
Meneti, H. (2019). Examining the effects of the Corona virus, Covid-19, on the global economy. Research Institute of Human Sciences and Social Studies, Jihad University, 4(9), 56-88.
Miller, S., & Upadhyay, M. (2000). The effects of openness, trade orientation, and human capital on total factor productivity. Journal of Development Economics, 63, 399-423.
Parikh, A. (2019). elationship Between Trade Liberalisation, Growth and Balance of Payments in Developing Countries: An Econometric Study (Vol. 286). University of East Anglia.
Paus, E., Reinhardt, N., & Robinson, M. (2003). Trade Liberalization and Productivity Growth in Latin American Manufacturing 1970–98. Policy Reform, 6(1), 1–15.
Taheri Nia, M., & Hassanvand, A. (2019). The economic consequences of the covid-19 disease on Iran's economy; Emphasis on employment. Nursing Management Quarterly, 9(3), 43-58.
Zheng, C. (2021). The impact of COVID-19 on the efficiency of microfinance institutions. International Review of Economics and Finance, 71(8), 45-78.