Forecasting Of Tehran Stock Exchange Index by Using Data Mining Approach Based on Artificial Intelligence Algorithms
Subject Areas : policy makingMohammad Mahmoodi 1 * , Akbar Ghasemi 2
1 - Assistant professor, Faculty of management, Accounting department, Islamic Azad University, Firoozkouh branch, Iran
2 - Msc., Faculty of management , Islamic Azad University, Firoozkouh branch, Iran
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Abstract :
Uncertainty in the capital market means the difference between the expected values and the amounts that actually occur. Designing different analytical and forecasting methods in the capital market is also less likely due to the high amount of this and the need to know future prices with greater certainty or uncertainty. In order to capitalize on the capital market, investors have always sought to find the right share for investment and the right price to buy and sell, and so all the predicted models always seek to answer the three basic questions, i.e., which share, to what extent When and at what price to buy or sell. Before answering the answers given to these questions, you have to answer a more serious question. Including whether forecasting financial markets is possible. Accordingly, in this research, using data mining, we proposed a method for predicting changes in the total stock index of Tehran stock exchanges. The purpose of this research is in the field of applied research. In terms of its implementation, the research is based on a causal research that is carried out using a data collection database. Based on the results obtained from this study on the best decision tree algorithm with respect to the accuracy of 94% of the C & R Tree algorithm, it can be said that this algorithm can be better than predicting stock price changes. Also, using decision tree can also predict changes in the price of the payment.