تحلیل نقش سرمایه اجتماعی در ارتقای تاب‌آوری اقتصاد شهری در برابر مخاطرات (مطالعه موردی: شهر زنجان)
حسین طهماسبی مقدم
1
(
استادیار، گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران.
)
زهرا رسول‌زاده
2
(
دانشجوی دکتری گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران
)
کلید واژه: سرمایه اجتماعی, تاب‌آوری اقتصادی, مدل معادلات ساختاری, دلفی فازی, شهر زنجان.,
چکیده مقاله :
در دهه‌های اخیر، شدت و پیچیدگی مخاطرات طبیعی و انسانی، شهرها را با چالش‌های گسترده‌ای همچون تمرکز زیاد جمعیت، فرسودگی زیرساخت‌ها، ضعف نظام‌های مدیریت ریسک و عدم تاب‌آوری نهادی، بیش از پیش در معرض اثرات مستقیم و غیرمستقیم مواجه ساخته است. در این میان، تاب‌آوری اقتصاد شهری به‌عنوان یکی از ابعاد کلیدی پایداری، به ظرفیت شهرها در مقابله، انطباق و بازیابی از شوک‌های اقتصادی اشاره دارد. پژوهش حاضر با هدف بررسی نقش سرمایه اجتماعی در ارتقای تاب‌آوری اقتصادی شهر زنجان انجام شده است. روش تحقیق ترکیبی بوده و شامل دو بخش کیفی (دلفی فازی با مشارکت 20 متخصص) و کمّی، مدل‌سازی معادلات ساختاری PLS می‌باشد. در بخش کیفی، مؤلفه‌های سرمایه اجتماعی در چهار بُعد اصلی شامل اعتماد اجتماعی، انسجام اجتماعی، آگاهی اجتماعی و شبکه‌های اجتماعی و مولفه های تاب آوری اقتصادی در سه بعد تنوع و پایداری ساختار اقتصادی، توانمندی نهادی و حکمرانی مالی، زیرساخت‌ها و دسترسی به منابع شناسایی شدند. نتایج تحلیل فازی نشان داد که از میان 46 شاخص اولیه، 27 شاخص توسط خبرگان تأیید و وارد مدل نهایی شدند. در بخش کمّی، نتایج مدل PLS نشان داد که همه ابعاد سرمایه اجتماعی تأثیر مثبت و معناداری بر تاب‌آوری اقتصادی دارند (ضریب تأثیر کل: 0.788). در این میان، اعتماد اجتماعی بیشترین اثر را بر تاب‌آوری اقتصادی داشته است (316/0β=) یافته‌ها بیانگر آن است که سرمایه اجتماعی می‌تواند همچون زیرساختی نرم، نقش بنیادینی در افزایش توان انطباق‌پذیری و بازیابی اقتصادی شهر زنجان در برابر مخاطرات ایفا کند.
چکیده انگلیسی :
In recent decades, the intensity and complexity of natural and human-induced hazards have increasingly exposed cities to a wide range of challenges, including high population density, deteriorating infrastructure, weak risk management systems, and a lack of institutional resilience. In this context, urban economic resilience—recognized as a key dimension of sustainability—refers to the capacity of cities to withstand, adapt to, and recover from economic shocks.This study aims to examine the role of social capital in enhancing the economic resilience of the city of Zanjan. The research employs a mixed-methods approach, consisting of a qualitative phase using the Fuzzy Delphi method involving 20 experts, and a quantitative phase utilizing Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling(PLS-SEM).In the qualitative phase, components of social capital were identified across four main dimensions: social trust, social cohesion,social awareness, and social networks. Meanwhile, components of economic resilience were classified into three main dimensions: diversity and sustainability of the economic structure, institutional capacity and financial governance, and infrastructure and access to resources. The results of the fuzzy analysis revealed that, out of an initial set of 46 indicators, 27 were validated by experts and included in the final model. In the quantitative phase, the PLS-SEM results indicated that all dimensions of social capital had a positive and statistically significant effect on economic resilience (overall impact coefficient: 0.788). Among them, social trust had the greatest influence on economic resilience (β = 0.316).
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