ارزیابی مؤلفه‌های اصلی و الگوهای فضایی پایداری اجتماعی شهری در استان چهارمحال‌و‌بختیاری

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای

مجتبی اسماعیلی وردنجانی ¹ , نفیسه مرصوصی ² , رضا مختاری ملک آبادی ³ , اسماعیل علی اکبری ⁴

1 - دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا‌و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران
2 - دانشیار جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران.
3 - دانشیار جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران
4 - استاد جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران

تاریخ دریافت : 1399/05/07 تاریخ پذیرش : 1400/06/21 تاریخ انتشار : 1402/09/01

کلید واژه: تحلیل فضایی, پایداری اجتماعی شهری, تحلیل مؤلفه‌های اصلی, شهرهای استان چهارمحال‌وبختیاری,

چکیده مقاله :

امروزه چالش‌های اجتماعی از مهمترین موانع دستیابی به پایداری در شهرهای کشورهای در حال توسعه محسوب می‌گردند. از این‌روی شناخت و تحلیل جغرافیایی عوامل اثرگذار بر پایداری اجتماعی شهرها از جمله اهداف و اولویت‌های مهم برنامه‌ریزی‌های شهری و منطقه‌ای محسوب می‌گردد. این پژوهش با روش کمّی و پیمایشی و با استفاده از داده‌های ثانویه انجام شده است. در این پژوهش با بهره‌گیری از روش‌های شاخص روایی محتوایی و شاخص نسبت روایی محتوایی تعداد 19 شاخص عینی پایداری اجتماعی، گزینش و با استفاده از روش‌های تحلیل مؤلفه‌های اصلی، شاخص خودهمبستگی فضایی موران و روش درونیابی وزن‌دهی معکوس فاصله، پایداری اجتماعی شهرهای استان چهارمحال‌و‌بختیاری اندازه‌گیری و تحلیل گردید. یافته‌های پژوهش در بخش تحلیل مؤلفه‌های اصلی نشان می‌دهد 4 مؤلفه اصلی(ایمنی و امنیّت، بهداشت و سلامت، پویایی جمعیت و سواد و آموزش) با مجموع واریانس 125/65 درصد تبیین کننده همبستگی بین متغیرهای پژوهش برای سنجش و ارزیابی پایداری اجتماعی شهری در استان می‌باشد. همچنین نتایج شاخص خودهمبستگی فضایی موران با مقدار 06/0- بیانگر الگوی فضایی تصادفی پایداری اجتماعی شهری در سطح استان و معنی‌داری روابط فضایی 5 شهر در مؤلفه ایمنی و امنیت، 2 شهر در مؤلفه بهداشت و سلامت، 5 شهر در پویایی جمعیت، 1 شهر در مؤلفه سواد و آموزش و 4 شهر در شاخص ترکیبی پایداری اجتماعی می‌باشد. نتایج درونیابی فضایی پایداری اجتماعی شهرهای استان ضمن نشان دادن وضعیت نامناسب مؤلفه های اصلی اثرگذار بر پایداری اجتماعی شهری حاکی از توزیع فضایی متعادلتر مؤلفه‌های پویایی جمعیت و سواد و آموزش در سطح استان نسبت به سایر مؤلفه‌ها و شاخص ترکیبی پایداری اجتماعی شهری می‌باشد.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Today, social challenges are one of the most important obstacles to achieving sustainability in the cities of developing countries. Therefore, recognition and geographical analysis of the factors affecting the social sustainability of cities are among the important goals and priorities of urban and regional planning. This research has been done by quantitative and survey method and using secondary data. In this study, with using the content validity index and content validity ratio, 19 objective indicators of social sustainability were selected and social sustainability of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari cities measured and analyzed by using principal component analysis, spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I) and inverse distance weighting interpolation(IDW) methods. Findings of the research in the principal component analysis show that the 4 principal components (safety and security, health, population dynamism, literacy and education) with a total variance of 65.125%, explain the correlation between research variables to measure and evaluate the urban social sustainability of the province. Also, Morans Index with a value of -0.06 indicates the random spatial pattern of urban social sustainability in the province and the significance of spatial relationships of 5 urban centers in safety and security, 2 urban centers in health, 5 urban centers in population dynamics, 1 urban center in literacy and education and 4 urban centers in the composite index of social sustainability. The results of inverse distance weighting interpolation methode while showing the unfavorable situation of the principale components affecting urban social sustainability, indicate a more balanced spatial distribution of the components of population dynamism, literacy and education in the province than other components and the combined index of urban social sustainability.
Extended Abstract
 
Introduction
According to the UN reports, in 1900 only 10% of the world's population lived in cities, but in 2007 this reached 50% and it is estimated that by 2050 this will reach up to 72 %. In Iran, for the past half century, the differences and inequalities of cities have been increasing for various reasons, such as the centralized implementation of development programs, the noncompliance of resources with regional potentials, and the neglect of spatial planning. The product of this process has been the emergence of many social problems such as migration from deprived areas to rich and developed areas and deepening the gap and spatial duality between cities in the regions and ultimately creating many challenges in sustainability and especially social sustainability of cities. An example of such inequalities and spatial imbalances between cities can be seen in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province. So that there are challenges such as the expansion of marginalized and poor neighborhoods, high rates of injuries and social anomalies, declining quality of life, lack of minimum living facilities and services needed in cities, lack of spatial affiliation and sustainability of neighborhood with ethnic diversity without social cohesion and integration due to lack of social capital, increasing poverty and two-level divisions (poverty and richness) within cities. The existence of such social challenges in the cities indicates the need to pay more attention to the social sustainability of the cities of the province. Therefore, it is necessary to apply the approach of sustainable urban development in order to explain the situation of social sustainability and unsustainability of the cities, to carry out future plans to achieve social sustainability. In general, this study, with the aim of recognizing the social sustainability of the cities of the province, seeks to answer the following questions:
- Which factors and components explain the urban social sustainability in the province?
- What is the status and position of urban social sustainability in the province?
- What is the spatial distribution patterns of urban social sustainability in the province?
 
Methodology
This research in terms of purpose is applied researches and descriptive and analytical research in nature. And based on the data type, this is survey research and the method of data collection is documentary and secondary analysis. In order to select social sustainability indicators, after forming an evaluation group consisting of 25 experts on sustainability and urban management, 19 objective indicators were selected using the methods of Content Validity Index (CVI) and Content Validity Ratio (CVR). Also, in this study, by using the Principal Components Analysis (PCA) method, the social sustainability of the cities of the province has been measured. Then, using Moran Spatial Autocorrelation analysis (LMI) methods and Inverse Distance Weighted interpolation (IDW) method, the spatial patterns of urban social sustainability in the province were extracted and analyzed in the principal components and general index of urban social sustainability.
 
Results and Discussion
The results of the principal component analysis show that in the combined index of social sustainability, out of a total of 40 urban settlements in the province, 16 cities have a positive score and 24 cities have a negative score. The results of ranking the social sustainability of the cities of the province in the four social components show that in the first component (security and safety) the Chelgerd with a score of 1.712 has the highest and the Sardasht with a score of -1.453 have the lowest score. In the second component (health), Shahrekord with a score of 2.5388 has the highest and Kian with a score of -1.331 have the lowest score. In the third component (population dynamics), the Vardanjan with a score of 1.657 has the highest score and the Shahrekord with a score of -2.617 have the lowest score. In the fourth component (literacy and education), Shahrekord with a score of 1.238 has the highest score and Samsami with a score of -0.679 have the lowest score. Also, in the combined index of social urban sustainability, the city of Borujen with a score of 0.709 has the highest score and the Sardasht with a score of -0.965 have the lowest score. The results of using the Global Moran index with the value of Moran index (-0.06), Critical value (z-score: -0.55) at the significance level of (p-value: 0.58), shows the Random spatial pattern of urban social sustainability in the province. Also, the results of local Moran index show the significance of spatial relations of 7 urban centers (Nafch, Kian, Farsan, Chelgerd, Naqneh, Lordegan and Monj) in the first component (security and safety), 2 urban centers (Borujen and Shahrekord) in the second component ( Health), 5 urban centers (Boldaji, Gahroo, Naghan, Kaj and Lordegan) in the third component (population dynamics), 1 urban center (Bazoft) in the fourth component (literacy and education) and 4 urban centers (Dastena, Chelgerd, Lordegan and Naqneh) is in the combined index of urban social sustainability. The results of using the inverse distance weighted interpolation method show the unbalanced distribution of the principal components and the combined index of urban social sustainability in the province. In fact, the results indicate that the two components of population dynamics and literacy and education have a more balanced distribution in the province than other components.
 
Conclusion
Attention to the sustainability of cities and quantitative measurement and spatial representation of their sustainability is one of the important and key issues in urban planning and management. Accordingly, today, paying attention to the social sustainability of cities has become increasingly important due to its effectiveness and impact on other dimensions of sustainability. The results of this study indicate that there are many challenges in social sustainability in most cities of the province and unbalanced spatial distribution in the principal components and the combined index of urban social sustainability in the province. Therefore, due to the unfavorable situation of urban social sustainability in the province and also the inappropriate spatial distribution of social sustainability, suggestions to improve the levels of social sustainability in the cities of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province are presented as follows:
- Adopting policies to improve the levels of indicators affecting the security and safety component in the cities that located in western half of the province.
- Adopting policies to improve the levels of indicators affecting the health component in the cities that located in northern half of the province.
- Adopting policies to improve the levels of indicators affecting the population dynamics component in the cities of Sardasht, Monj, Shahrekord, Samsami and Saman.

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