خوانش و اولویت‌بندی مولفه‌های تأثیرگذار بر تحقق‌پذیری شهر امن در پهنۀ مرکزی شهر تهران

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی و پژوهشی پژوهش و برنامه ریزی شهری

حافظ مهدنژاد ¹ , وحید بارانی ² , فریاد پرهیز ³

1 - استادیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامهریزی شهری، دانشگاه سیدجمال الدین اسدآبادی، اسدآباد، ایران
2 - استادیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه علوم انتظامی امین، تهران، ایران.
3 - دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، رئیس اداره مطالعات شهرسازی و معماری شهرداری اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران.

تاریخ دریافت : 1399/10/19 تاریخ پذیرش : 1401/02/03 تاریخ انتشار : 1402/05/01

کلید واژه: شهر تهران, احساس امنیت, شهر امن, شاخص‌های کالبدی, بافت های فرسوده,

چکیده مقاله :

بافت های فرسوده به خاطر ویژگی های اجتماعی، اقتصادی، فرهنگی و کالبدی-محیطی، به شدت مستعد وقوع جرم و بزهکاری هستند. بر همین مبنا، هدف پژوهش حاضر خوانش و اولویت­بندی مولفه­های تأثیرگذار بر تحقق پذیری شهر امن در بافت­های فرسوده شهری در پهنۀ مرکزی شهر تهران است. جامعۀ آماری شامل ساکنان بافت­های فرسودۀ مناطق 11 و 12 شهر تهران، است که حجم نمونه بر اساس فرمول کوکران، 400 نفر است. از روش­های تحلیل عاملی تائیدی، بارتلت، آزمون کالموگروف- اسمیرنف، ماتریس ضرایب همبستگی و تحلیل مسیر، برای تحلیل داده­ها استفاده گردید. از نرم‌افزار LISREL8.8 برای تحلیل داده­ها استفاده گردید. بر اساس نتایج آزمون­های کیسر/ مییر/ الکین (برابر 66/0)، کفایت تعداد نمونه تایید و بر مبنای آزمون معناداری بارتلت (001/0P< ؛ 105 =df ؛ 040/738 =X2) فرضیه‌ نبود همبستگی بین متغیرها رد شده است. بر اساس یافته­های پژوهش، توزیع کلیه روابط موجود در مؤلفه­ها و متغیرهای پژوهش نرمال است. میزان آمارۀ T برای متغیرهای پژوهش مشتمل بر احساس امنیت، نورپردازی، معابر، الگوی فعالیت­ها و کاربری­ها، کیفیت محله­های مسکونی، فرم فضا، هویت شهروندان، تراکم جمعیت، نظارت اجتماعی، اشتغال و مسکن به ترتیب برابر با 52/10، 29/8،  18/5، 62/9، 79/8، 88/9، 29/10، 11/7، 56/4، 61/9 و 69/8 است. با عنایت به مقدار آمارۀ T و سطح معناداری مناسب آنها(001/0)، این متغییرها بر تحقق­پذیری شهر امن در بافت­های فرسوده شهری در پهنۀ مرکزی شهر تهران تأثیر بارزی دارند.  بر اساس مدل تحلیل مسیر، مولفه احساس امنیت با ضریب 20/0 بیشترین تأثیر را داشته و پس از آن مولفه­های نورپردازی، معابر، الگوی فعالیت­ها و کاربری­ها، کیفیت محله­های مسکونی، فرم فضا، هویت شهروندان، تراکم جمعیت، نظارت اجتماعی و اشتغال با ضریب به ترتیب با ضریب 15/0،  14/0، 10/0،  09/0، 07/0،  06/0، 05/0، 03/0  و 04/0  در اولویت­های بعدی قرار دارند.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Worn tissues are highly prone to crime due to their social, economic, cultural and physical-environmental characteristics. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is Influential components prioritization on inhabitants security of urban worn textures in Central area of Tehran. The present study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of method. The statistical population includes the worn tissues residents in the 11th and 12th districts of Tehran.The sample size is estimated at 400 based on the Cochran's formula. Various methods have been used for analysis for the safety assesment of residents such as confirmatory factor analysis, Bartlett, Kalmogorov-Smirnov test, correlation coefficient matrix and path analysis. LISREL8.8 software is used for data analysis. The results of Kiser / Meyer / Alkin (KMO) sampling adequacy tests are equal to 0.66. As a result, the adequacy of the number of samples is confirmed. Based on Bartlett significance test (P <0.001; df = 105; X2 = 040/740), is rejected the hypothesis of no correlation between variables
The research findings has indicate that based on the results of Kalmogorov-Smirnov test, the distribution of all relationships is normal in the components and variables of the research. The amount of T-statistics for research variables including feeling of security, lighting, passages, pattern of activities and uses, quality of residential areas, form of space, citizen identity, population density, social monitoring, employment and housing are equal to 10.52, 8/29 , 5/18, 9/62, 8/79, 9/88, 10/29, 7/11, 4/56, 9/61 and 8/69 respectively. These variables have a significant effect on the security of worn textures residents in the central area of Tehran, considering the value of T-statistics and their appropriate level of significance (0.001). According to the route analysis model, the component of feeling safe had the most effect with a coefficient of 0.20. Then, components have had the greatest impact such as Lighting(with a coefficient of 0.15), passages(0.14), pattern of activities and uses(0.10), quality of residential areas(0.09), form of space(0.07), identity of citizens(0.06), population density(0.05), social monitoring(0.03) and finally employment(0.04).

منابع و مأخذ:

1. Anuar, A. N. A., Bookhari, S. N., & Aziz, N. A. (2012). The Effectiveness of Safe City Programme as Safety Basic in Tourism Industry: Case Study in Putrajaya, in Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, Vol 42, No. 2, pp. 477–485.


2. Brantingham, P., & Brantingham, P. (1995). Criminality of Place. Crime Generators and Crime Attractors. European Journal of Criminal Policy and Research, Vol 3, No. 3, pp. 5–26.


3. Brantingham, P., Brantingham, P., &W. Taylor. (2005). Situational Crime Prevention  as  a  Key  Component  in  Embedded  Crime  Canadian Journal of Criminology and Criminal Justice, Vol 47, No. 2, pp. 271–92.


4. Brunet, J. (2002).  Discouragement of Crime through Civil Remedies:   An   Application   of   a   Reformulated   Routine   Activities Theory. Western Criminology Review, Vol 4, No. 1, pp. 68–79.


5. Chalom, M., Leonar, L., Vanderschueren, F., & C. Vezina. (2001). Urban Safety and Good Governance: The Role of the Police. Nairobi: UNCHS (Habitat).


6. Cho, J. T., & J. Park. (2017). Exploring the Effects of CCTV upon Fear of Crime: A Multi-Level Approach in Seoul. International Journal of Law, Crime and Justice, Vol 49, No. 1, pp. 35–45.


7. Eizamly, N. U. E. N., & Anuar, F. I. (2020). The safe city programme strategies and sustainability in urban tourism environment, Journal of Tourism, Hospitality & Culinary Arts, Vol 12, No. 1, pp. 128-135.


8. European Forum for Urban Security (EFUS). (2012). Democracy and    cities:    The    manifesto    of    Aubervilliers and Saint-Denis.  http://efus.eu/en/resources/publications/efus/3964/ (accessed June 30, 2016).


9. Felson, M., & Clarke, R. V. (1998). Opportunity Makes the Thief. Practical Theory for Crime Prevention. Police Research Series, paper 98. London: Home Office, Policing and Reducing Crime Unit Felson and Clarke.


10. Fittered, J., Nelson, T. A., & Nathoo, F. (2015). Predictive Crime Mapping. Police Practice and Research: An International Journal, Vol 16, No. 2, pp.  121–35.


11. Ismagilova, E., Hughes, L., Dwivedi, Y. K., & K.R. Raman. (2019). Smart Cities: Advances in Research — an Information Systems Perspective. International Journal of Information Management, Vol 47, No. 1, pp. 88–100.


12. Jong, W., & Strikwerda, L. (2020). Controlling risks in the safe city: The rise of pre-emptive practices in law enforcement, public surveillance and mental health and addiction care (1970–2020), Urban Studies, Vol 58, No. 12, pp. 2514–2530.


13. Lacinak, M., & J. Ristvej. (2017). Smart City, Safety and Security, in Procedia Engineering, Vol 192, No. 1, pp. 522–527.


14. Lim, S. B., Kong, Y. C., Abdul Rashid, M. F., & Abdul Malek, J. (2020). A Framework of Challenges Facing the Safe City Programme in Kuala Lumpur, Planning Malaysia , Vol 18, No. 4, pp. 47-61.


15. Mardizadeh, S.H.(2019). The effect of physical factor on citizens' sense of security in the traditional Shadegan market. Cultural Sociology Quarterly, Vol 1, No. 2, pp.16-31[In Persian].


16. Matijosaitiene ,I., Zhao, P., Jaume , S., & Gilkey Jr, J. W. (2019).Prediction of Hourly Effect of Land Use on Crime, ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf, Vol 8, No. 16, pp. 1-13.


17. Melossi, D. (2003). In a Peaceful Life.  Migration and the Crime of Modernity in Europe/Italy.  Punishment  and  Society,  Vol 5, No. 4, pp. 371–97


18. Morelle, M., & J. Tadie. (2011). the Making of Urban Security. Introduction. Justice Spatiale / Spatial Justice, 4 [online].


19. Mosher, J., & Brockman, J. (2010). Introduction. In Constructing Crime. Contemporary Processes of Criminalization, edited by J.  Mosher and J.  Brockman, 1–16.  Vancouver:  University of British Columbia Press.


20. Nemati Nia, L., Madani, S., Babaei, M. (2020). Mental perception of Tehran citizens about feeling insecure in defenseless urban spaces, Studies and Social Research in Iran, Vol 9, No. 33, pp. 103-129[In Persian].


21. Raj, P., & Anupama C. R. (2015). Chapter 3: The Role and Relevance of Software-Defined Cloud Infrastructure, in Intelligent Cities: Enabling Tools and Technology, CRC Press, Taylor & Francis Group, Boca Raton, US.


22. Risdiana, D. M., & Susanto, T. D. (2019). The Safe City: Conceptual Model Development - A Systematic Literature Review, Procedia Computer Science, Vol 161, No. 2, pp. 291–299.


23. Ristvej, J., Lacinak, M., & Ondrejka, R .(2020).On Smart City and Safe City Concepts, Mobile Networks and Applications, Vol 25, No. 1, pp. 836–845.


24. Shukla, A. B. (2015). Validating the Theories of Urban Crime in the city of Raipur. Journal of Engineering (IOSRJEN), Vol 5, No. 8, pp. 15-24.


25. Sjoberg, I., & Nygren, K. G. (2020). Contesting city safety - exploring (un)safety and objects of risk from multiple viewpoints, Journal of Risk Research, Vol 1, No. 1, pp. 1-15


26. Townsend, A. (2015). Cities of Data:  Examining the New Urban Science. Public Culture, Vol27, No. 2, pp. 201–12.


27. Tulumello, S. (2017). Toward a Critical Understanding of Urban Security within the  Institutional Practice of Urban  Planning: The Case of the  Lisbon Metropolitan Area, Journal of Planning Education and Research, Vol 37, No. 4, pp. 397 –410.


28. Vitalij, F., Robnik, A., & Alexey, T. (2012). Safe City - An Open and Reliable Solution for a Safe and Smart City. Elektrotehniski Vestnik/Electrotechnical Review, Vol 79, No. 5, pp. 262–267.


29. Vivo-Delgado, G., & Castro-Toledo, F. J. (2020). Urban security and crime prevention in smart cities: a systematic review, International e-Journal of Criminal Sciences, Vol 1, No. 2, pp. 1-23.


30. Wereda, W., Moch, N., & Wachulak, A. (2022). The Importance of Stakeholders in Managing a Safe City. Sustainability, Vol 14, No. 244, pp. 1-17.


31. Yigitcanlar, A. T., & M. Foth. (2018). Can Cities Become Smart Without Being Sustainable? A Systematic Review of the Literature. Sustainable Cities and Society. Vol 45, No. 1, pp. 348-365.


32. Zare Shahabadi, A., Foundation, L., & Gholami, M. (2020). Investigating the relationship between the right to the city and the feeling of social security among the citizens of Yazd, Vol 10, No. 39, pp. 109-124[In Persian].


33. Ziari, K., Shahsavari, M. S., Najafi, I. (2019). Assessing the effect of Islamic context on the sense of security based on the principles of the second generation CPTED (Case study: Fahadan neighborhood of Yazd), Journal of Planning Studies for Human Settlements, Vol 14, No. 47, pp. 275-292[In Persian].


34. Zywiołek, J., & Schiavone, F. (2021). Perception of the Quality of Smart City Solutions as a Sense of Residents’ Safety. Energies, Vol 14, No. 2, pp. 1-16.