بررسی عوامل موثر بر تاب آوری اجتماعی – اقتصادی شهرها در مواجهه با اپیدمی ها (مطالعه موردی: شهر شیراز)
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی و پژوهشی پژوهش و برنامه ریزی شهریمحمدرضا زمانی 1 , فرشته احمدی 2 * , زینب طالبی 3
1 - دانشجوی دکتری، گروه شهرسازی، مرکز تحقیقات افق های نوین در معماری و شهرسازی، واحد نجف آباد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، نجف آباد، ایران
2 - استادیار، گروه شهرسازی، مرکز تحقیقات افق های نوین در معماری و شهرسازی، واحد نجف آباد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، نجف آباد، ایران
3 - استادیار، گروه شهرسازی، مرکز تحقیقات افق های نوین در معماری و شهرسازی، واحد نجف آباد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، نجف آباد، ایران
کلید واژه: تاب‌آوری اجتماعی, تاب‌آوری اقتصادی, اپیدمی, شهر شیراز, مدل SOAR,
چکیده مقاله :
مقدمه: امروزه شهرها به عنوان محل سکونت و فعالیت های انسانی همواره در معرض انواع مخاطرات طبیعی و انسانی قرار دارند. یکی از مهمترین این مخاطرات شیوع اپیدمی‌ها می باشد که در صورت عدم تاب آوری سیستم‌های شهری می‌تواند خسارات جبران ناپذیری را برای جوامع شهری بار آورد. در این راستا هدف پژوهش پیش رو بررسی مهمترین عوامل موثر بر تاب آوری اجتماعی – اقتصادی شهرها در برابر اپیدمی‌ها و ارائه استراتژی‌های لازم در زمینه ارتقاء آنها می‌باشد. روش: پژوهش پیش رو از نظر هدف توصیفی – تحلیلی و از نظر نتایج کاربردی بوده و برای تحلیل نتایج از روش‌های کمی استفاده می‌گردد. بدین منظور پس از استخراج گویه های مرتبط با تاب آوری اجتماعی و اقتصادی در مواجهه با اپیدمی ها با استفاده از تحلیل عاملی اکتشافی گویه‌های مرتبط با تاب‌آوری اجتماعی و اقتصادی دسته بندی شده و به تعدادی عامل تقلیل می‌یابد و با استفاده از آزمون T تک نمونه‌ای در نرم افزار SPSS وضعیت آنها در شهر شیراز مورد سنجش قرار می‌گیرد. با استفاده از مدل استراتژیک SOAR استراتژی‌های لازم برای ارتقاء تاب آوری شهر شیراز تدوین و با استفاده از تکنیک QSPM اولویت بندی می گردد. یافته ها: بر اساس نتایج به دست آمده، از 15 گویه تاب آوری اجتماعی چهار و از 9 گویه تاب آوری اقتصادی دو عامل استخراج گردید. در بین این عوامل تنها عامل "آگاهی" مرتبط با تاب‌آوری اجتماعی در شهر شیراز در وضعیت نسبتاً مطلوبی قرار داشت و سایر عوامل وضعیت مناسبی در شهر شیراز نداشتند. در نهایت با استفاده مدل SOAR بر اساس نظرات ذینفعان شهری هفت استراتژی اصلی برای بهبود تاب آوری اجتماعی و اقتصادی در برابر اپیدمی‌ها تدوین و با استفاده از مدل QSPM اولویت بندی می‌گردد. نتیجه گیری: در بین استراتژی های استخراج شده، استراتژی "تقویت کارایی و کارآمدی با آموزش تخصصی مدیران شهری و ایجاد شفافیت جهت نظارت عمومی" و بعد از آن استراتژی " تقویت پایداری و ثبات اقتصادی و افزایش نرخ اشتغال با ارائه آموزش های مهارت محور" و "ایجاد محلات خودکفا و همبسته با تقویت همبستگی و انسجام اجتماعی"بیشترین امتیاز را به دست آوردند و باید بیش از پیش مورد توجه قرار گیرند.
Introduction: Today, cities as places of residence and human activities are always exposed to all kinds of natural and human hazards. One of the most important risks is the spread of epidemics, which can cause irreparable damage to urban communities if urban systems are not resilient. In this regard, the upcoming research aims to investigate the most important factors affecting the socio-economic resilience of cities against epidemics and to provide the necessary strategies for their improvement. Method: The upcoming research is descriptive-analytical in terms of purpose and practical in terms of results, and quantitative methods are used to analyze the results. For this purpose, after extracting items related to social and economic resilience in the face of epidemics, using exploratory factor analysis, the items related to social and economic resilience are categorized and reduced to several factors, and using Their situation in Shiraz city is measured by single-sample T-test in SPSS software. By using the SOAR strategic model, the necessary strategies to improve the resilience of Shiraz City are developed and prioritized using the QSPM technique. Results: Based on the obtained results, four factors were extracted from 15 social resilience items, and two factors were extracted from 9 economic resilience items. Among these factors, only the "awareness" factor related to social resilience was in a relatively favorable condition in Shiraz city, and other factors were not in a suitable condition in Shiraz city. Finally, using the SOAR model, based on the opinions of urban stakeholders, seven main strategies to improve social and economic resilience against epidemics are formulated and prioritized using the QSPM model. Conclusion: Among the extracted strategies, the strategies "Strengthening efficiency and effectiveness with specialized training of urban managers and creating transparency for public supervision" and after that the strategy "Strengthening stability and economic stability and increasing the employment rate by providing skill-based training" and "Creating Self-sufficient and connected neighborhoods by strengthening solidarity and social cohesion gained the most points and should be given more attention.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Today, cities as places of residence and human activities are always exposed to all kinds of natural and human hazards. One of the most important risks and crises that cities have faced in different historical periods is the spread of epidemics or epidemics. Such diseases have appeared in various historical periods in other parts of the world, have affected human societies in different ways, and have caused significant damage. One of these epidemics is the Covid-19 epidemic, which the whole world has been facing recently. In addition to its adverse effect on people's health, this epidemic has had many adverse effects on almost all aspects of human life, including economic and social effects. Although several years have passed since the outbreak of this disease and after general vaccination around the world, the spread of the disease has subsided, there is still a concern that we will face similar epidemics in the future. Considering that cities and citizens are always exposed to various risks, including epidemics, and there is a possibility of the spread of such phenomena at any time, the lack of resilience of cities can cause irreparable damage to urban communities. Therefore, it is necessary to know the main factors and indicators affecting the economic and social resilience of cities against epidemics, so that by adopting specific strategies in the field of improving these factors and indicators, possible damages and losses can be reduced and in time Shorter survived these crises safely and returned to favorable conditions.
Methodology
The upcoming research is descriptive-analytical research that is practical in terms of results. For this purpose, by reviewing the research literature and conducting research, the items related to social resilience and economic resilience were identified. After that, the items corresponding to the epidemics were evaluated using their content validity index (CVI) and finally, some items were approved by getting the necessary points from the experts. Exploratory factor analysis is used to examine the structure of approved items and reduce them to several main factors so that 9 economic resilience items and 15 social resilience items are categorized into several factors. To measure the status of the factors related to the economic resilience and social resilience of Shiraz against epidemics, the one-sample T-test is used. In the following, using the SOAR strategic model and taking into account the strengths, upcoming opportunities, ideals, and expected results, specific strategies will be formulated to improve urban economic and social resilience in the face of epidemics. After defining the strategies, the score of each one is determined using the QSPM technique and prioritized based on it.
Results and discussion
Regarding economic resilience items, only two factors are extracted for the number of 9 items of this concept. The first factor is related to economic support and skills, on which 5 items are loaded, and the second factor, which is related to economic structural features, contains 4 other items. For social resilience, using the above method, 4 factors were extracted for 15 items. According to the items, these factors can be called 1- social capital, 2- awareness, 3- skill and knowledge, and 4- attitude. The results of the T-test show that the factors of economic resilience in Shiraz City are lower than the average and are not very favorable. In the case of social resilience, only the factor of awareness is in a relatively favorable situation, and the factors of social capital, skill, knowledge, and attitude have an unfavorable situation compared to the average value and do not have favorable conditions. After identifying the strengths, opportunities ideals, and expected results and using them and using the SOAR model, strategies are presented to promote the economic and social resilience of the city of Shiraz in the face of epidemics. The seven main strategies are presented below:
- Educating citizens to empower them to attract their effective participation and strengthen non-governmental organizations
- Creating self-sufficient and interconnected neighborhoods by strengthening solidarity and social cohesion
- Strengthening economic stability and increasing the employment rate by providing skill-based training
- Fast and transparent provision of services to citizens with the realization of a smart city as much as possible
- Strengthening efficiency and effectiveness with specialized training of city managers and creating transparency for public supervision
- More rule of law with more awareness of citizens about citizenship rights and creating transparency
- Reducing financial and economic corruption by creating transparency and realization of smart city and public supervision
Conclusion
In this research, by studying the literature on the subject, items for social and economic resilience were formulated separately. These items were reduced to several factors for each of these two dimensions of resilience using exploratory factor analysis. Based on this, the factors of social capital, awareness, skills knowledge, and attitude related to social resilience and the factors of economic support and skills as well as the characteristics of the economic structure of the city related to economic resilience were determined. According to the obtained results, among these factors, only the awareness factor was in a favorable situation. The main reason for the suitability of this factor is the existence of social networks the access of citizens to them and awareness of issues related to epidemics. Other factors related to social and economic resilience were not very favorable in Shiraz City. Using the SOAR model, seven main strategies were determined to promote the social and economic resilience of Shiraz, and finally, these strategies were prioritized using the QSPM matrix. Based on this, the strategy of "Strengthening efficiency and effectiveness with specialized training of city managers and creating transparency for public supervision" and after that the strategy of "Strengthening stability and economic stability and increasing the employment rate by providing skill-based training" got the most points and They should be given more attention
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