ارائه مدلی نوین جهت ارزیابی تاب‎آوری شهر در مدیریت بحران
ُسید علی رضویان امرئی
1
(
دانشیار گروه مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه پیام نور، ص.پ. 19395-4697، تهران، ایران
)
غزاله گودرزی
2
(
دکتری شهرسازی، دانشکده شهرسازی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد تهران شمال، تهران، ایران.
)
مهکامه فتاحی
3
(
دکتری تخصصی شهرسازی، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، گروه شهرسازی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد تهران شمال، ایران
)
کلید واژه: ارائه مدل - تاب آوری شهری - مدیریت بحران - روش دلفی,
چکیده مقاله :
در جامعه امروزی که با افزایش پیچیدگی، عدم اطمینان و آسیب‌پذیری مشخص می‌شود، مفهوم تاب‌آوری به عنوان یک عامل تعیین‌کننده رفاه فردی و ثبات اجتماعی، اهمیت قابل توجهی را به خود اختصاص داده است. از سویی بحرانها همیشه امنیت افراد جامعه را تهدید مینمایند و با توجه به سطح وسیع خسارات و تلفات ناشی از آن در شهرها، نقش محوری در مطالعات علمی داشتهاند. پژوهش حاضر با روش بنیادی و نظری، رویکردی نوین برای ارزیابی تاب‌آوری نیروی انسانی در موقعیتهای بحرانی را معرفی مینماید و به درک و حمایت از ظرفیت افراد، در بازیابی خود حین و پس از بحران میپردازد. از این رو با ارزیابی‌های روان‌سنجی، مصاحبه‌های کیفی و مشاهدات رفتاری و ارائه سناریوهای بحران با استفاده از دیدگاه خبرگان، پس از سه دور مطالعه دلفی، مدل تاب‌آوری نیروی انسانی را بر اساس سه مولفه بنیادی انسان، فعالیت و فضا، همراه با 11 خرد تاب‌آوری تاثیرگذار استخراج نموده است. مبتنی بر نظرات خبرگان، نتایج این پژوهش بیانگر این بود که این مدل قابلیت اطمینان مناسبی برای ارزیابی تاب‌آوری نیروی انسانی را داشته و استفاده از این مدل میتواند به برآورد قابل قبولی از میزان تاب‌آوری و ایجاد نگرشی سودمند در بین مدیران شهری بیانجامد؛ علاوه بر این، پیامدهای عملی رویکرد نوین نشان‌دهنده پیشرفت قابل توجهی در زمینه ارزیابی تاب‌آوری است و به پژوهشگران و مدیران شهری، بینش‌های ارزشمندی را در مورد پیچیدگی‌های تاب‌آوری فردی و پیامدهای آن برای تاب‌آوری اجتماعی و شهری، ارائه می‌دهد تا با فرهنگ‌سازی به عنوان یکی از مباحث اصلی و کانونی مدیریت بحران به کنترل بحرانهای شهری کمک نمایند.
چکیده انگلیسی :
In today's society, characterized by increasing complexity, uncertainty, and vulnerability, the concept of resilience has gained significant importance as a determinant of individual well-being and social stability. On the other hand, crisis always threaten community safety, and due to the extensive levels of damage and casualties they cause in cities, they have played a pivotal role in scientific studies. This research introduces a novel approach to assessing human resilience in crisis situations using a foundational and theoretical method, focusing on understanding and supporting individuals' capacity in their recovery during and after crisis. Through psychometric assessments, qualitative interviews, behavioral observations, and crisis scenario presentations from experts' perspectives, after three rounds of Delphi studies, the Human Resilience Model based on three fundamental components—human, activity, and space—along with 11 detailed resilience sub-factors, has been developed. According to expert opinions, the results of this research indicate that this model provides a reliable capability for assessing human resilience. Its use can lead to an acceptable estimate of resilience levels and foster a beneficial mindset among urban managers. Furthermore, practical implications of this novel approach demonstrate significant progress in resilience assessment, providing valuable insights for researchers and urban managers regarding the complexities of individual resilience and its implications for social and urban resilience. This cultural shift positions crisis management as a cornerstone in controlling urban crisis.Urbanization and population growth in cities are increasingly global issues faced by many cities today (et al., 2012 Sterling). This situation has exposed cities to numerous challenges (Heping et al., 2021). Iran, located in southwestern Asia with a population of over 80 million, has identified approximately 32 out of 45 recognized natural disasters worldwide. Moreover, Iran ranks ninth globally in terms of casualties and fifth in terms of the diversity of crisis. The term resilience against crisis and disasters has been increasingly used for several years; however, despite its widespread use in various fields of science, a clear and transparent application of this concept has not yet been provided.
1. Ahmadi, S., Heidari, M., Bagherian, F., & Kashfi, A. (2016). Adolescence and Development of Meaning: Comparing the Sources and Dimensions of Meaning in Life in Adolescent Boys and Girls. Clinical Psychology Studies, 6(23), 149-177. doi: 10.22054/jcps.2016.4563.
2. Azini, K., Ghanbari Mohad, R., Rahimian, M. (2023), Investigating the effects of floods on the sustainable livelihood of rural households (case study of Abestan village, Khoram Abad city), Quarterly Journal of Geographical Studies of Mountainous Regions. Fourth year, number 1, pp. 140-281.
3. Biron, M., De Cieri, H., … & Sun, J. M. (2020). Structuring for innovative responses to human resource challenges: A skunk works approach Human Resource Management Review, (2020).
4. Davis, R. E. (2013). "Managing a Product-Harm Crisis." Walden University. Available at: https://philarchive.org/archive/DAVHDI-4.
5. Gonzalez-Herrero, A., & Pratt, C. B. (2021). "Crisis management: A systematic review of the literature." International Journal of Humanities and Social Science, 11(6), 1-12. Available at: https://www.ijhssnet.com/journals/Vol_10_No_6_June_2020/14.
6. Habibi, Arash, Serafrazi, Rahale, Izdiyar, Siddiqa. (2014) Presenting the theoretical framework of the Delphi technique in qualitative research. The
International Journal Of Engineering And Science (IJES), Volume ,3, Issue, 4 , Pages, 08-13, 2014 ,ISSN (e): 2319 – 1813 ISSN (p): 2319 – 1805. 7. Heping, X., Yanhui, Zh., Yiyan, Ch, Qi, Peng., Zhiyi, L., Jianbo, Zh. (2021). A case study of development and utilization of urban underground space in Shenzhen and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology incorporating Trenchless Technology Research. 107:103651, DOI: 10.1016/j.tust.2020.103651. 8. Klein RJT, Nicholls RJ, Thomalla FT.(2003). Resilience to natural hazards: how useful is this concept? Environ Hazards 5:35–45. doi: 10.1016/j.hazards.2004.02.001. 9. Lerni, M., Beliad, M. R., Iran Nejad, P., & Mohammadi Nejad Ganji, A. (2024). Designing an Organizational Resilience Education Model of Crisis Management of Universal Centers to Facing with Natural Hazards and Prevention from Psychological and Social Interventions (A Case Study of Universal Centers of Karaj City). Sociology of Education, 10(1), 54-63. doi: 10.22034/ijes.2024.2017648.1516. 10. Mahmodi, M., & Heidary Soreshjani, R. (2024). Structural modeling of the role of economic indicators on physical-infrastructural resilience of surface runoff (Case study: District 7 of Ahvaz). , 14(55), 205-220. doi: 10.30495/jupm.2022.28885.3982 11. Maleki, S., razavii, S. M., & Ramazanpour Asadieh, K. (2022). Measurement and Evaluation of Resilience to Earthquake Urban Areas (Case Study: Western District of Izeh City). , 12(47), 187-202. doi: 10.30495/jupm.2022.4231. 12. Mazrouei Nasrabadi S, Jan Nishari G. (2020), Human resources resilience strategies. Organizational resource management research. 11 (3):149-119. 13. Miadfar, Jafar. "Some 250 natural disasters strike Iran annually." Tehran Times, 2022. Available at: https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/489883/Some-250-natural-disasters-strike-Iran-annually 14. Pickett,S.T.A. Cadenasso,M. & McGrath,B. (2013). Resilience in ecology and urban design: Linking theory and practice for sustainable cities. Dordrecht, Netherlands: Springer 15. Shahmohammadi, M., & khezri, E. (2022). Providing a Strategic Model for Measuring National Resilience. Strategy, 31(2), 219-252. doi: 10.22034/rahbord.2022.160380. 16. Shirdel, Saeeda. "Resilience and mental health." Faculty of Behavioral Sciences and Mental Health, 1402. Available at: https:// sbsmh. iums.ac.ir/. 17. Silavi, I., Amirkhani, A. H., Gholamrezaei, D., & Darvish, H. (2023). Designing a Model of Human Resource Resilience in the Context of the Corona Crisis. Public Administration Perspective, 14(3), 61-87. doi: 10.48308/jpap.2023.103489 18. Sorour, R; Akbari, M; Mosavi, S, Ch & BoostanAhmadi, V. (2018). Prioritization of sustainable development components in order to revive worn tissues, Case study: Julfa neighborhood of Isfahan. Geographical Journal of the Land. Vol 15, No 57, pp 89-104. 19. Sterlacchini, S. Bordogna, G. Cappellini, G & Voltolina, D. (2018). SIRENE: A Spatial Data Infrastructure to Enhance Communities’ Resilience to Disaster-Related Emergency. International Journal Disaster Risk Science, 9, pp 129-142. 20. Thilo, L. (2011). urban resilience and new institutional theory – A happy couple for urban and regional studies. 21. UN. (2016). Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals. United Nations Economic and Social Council, Report of the Secretary-General. E 75. 22. UNDP Drylands Development Centre )2013(, Community Based Resilience Analysis (CoBRA): Conceptual Framework and Methodology. 23. UNDRR. (2015). Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 24. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR). (2015). "Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030."Available at: https:// www. unisdr.org/ files/ 43291_ sendaiframeworkfordrren 25. Wiener S and Lee C-Y (2020) Multi-Talker Speech Promotes Greater Knowledge-Based Spoken Mandarin Word Recognition in First and Second Language Listeners. Front. Psychol. 11:214. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2020.00214 26. Xuecai, X., & Deyong, G. "Human factors risk assessment and management: process safety in engineering", Process safety and environmental protection, 113, (2018), pp. 467–482.