تحلیلی بر خوانش اجتماعات تاب‌آور در برابر بحران زلزله (مطالعه موردی: کلانشهر تبریز)
محورهای موضوعی : برنامه ریزی شهریامیر بخشی زاده 1 , اکبر عبدالله زاده طرف 2 , نورمحمد منجزی 3
1 - دانشجوی دکتری شهرسازی، واحد اهواز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اهواز، ایران
2 - استادیار گروه شهرسازی، واحد تبریز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تبریز، ایران.
3 - استادیار، گروه شهرسازی، دانشگاه صنعتی جندی شاپور دزفول، دزفول، ایران
کلید واژه: "آینده‌پژوهی", " زلزله", "تاب‌آوری", "طرح‌های توسعه", "کلانشهر تبریز",
چکیده مقاله :
پرسمان و انگاره نوشتار حاضر آمیزه‌ای است از نگرش پیشران‌های اجتماعی تاب‌آور در برابر بحران زلزله؛ امری که با فزونی جمعیت شهرنشینی و توسعه شهری رنگ می‌گیرد تا از این طریق سازمان‌های متولی مدیریت شهری در برابر مدیریت بحران زلزله مورد توجه قرار دهند. در حالی ابعاد این مساله گسترش روزافزون یافته است که یکی از ویژگی‌های آن درگیری گفتمان پیشران‌های دخیل در سامان دادن به این پدیده است که خود بر دامنه اهمیت آن افزوده است؛ بنابراین هدف پژوهش کاربست این انگاره بر منصه جغرافیایی کلانشهر تبریز بوده است، تا از این رهگذر بتواند با شناسایی پارامترهای مؤثر بر تاب‌آوری منطقه در برابر خطر زلزله به آسیب‌شناسی زمینه‌های دسترسی به آن بپردازد. پژوهش حاضر بر اساس هدف در زمره تحقیقات کاربردی، به لحاظ ماهیت و روش از نوع تحقیقات توصیفی- تحلیلی می‌باشد. جامعه آماری پژوهش حاضر شامل کارشناسان حوزه مدیریت بحران و تاب‌آوری شهری است که بر اساس نظرات 35 متخصص در دسترس و آشنا با مدیریت بحران و تاب‌آوری شهری پرسشنامه نهایی وارد نرم‌افزار میک‌مک (Micmac) می‌گردد و از روش سوات در جهت شناسایی نقاط کلیدی شناخت عوامل در جهت رسیدن بر تاب‌آوری اجتماعی در پهنه‌های مستعد شناسایی‌شده کلانشهر تبریز استفاده می‌شود. نتایج تحقیق نشان داد که امر دانش و آگاهی اجتماعی، آموزش و مهارت و قابلیت و دسترسی به خدمات مهم‌ترین پیشران‌های موثر بر خلق اجتماعات تاب آور شهر تبریز می‌باشند. استفاده از توان آگاهی در جهت مشارکت مرمی برای مقابله با سوانح طبیعی مانند زلزله و افزایش تا‌ب‌اوری بسیار مهم است. چرا درصورتی‌که افراد از آگاهی و مهارت کافی برخوردار و توانمند شده باشند، می‌توان امیدوار بود که هنگام وقع زلزله خواهند توانست با واکنش و رفتار مناسب، جان خود و نزدیکان را حفظ و کمتر دچار آسیب جانی، مالی و روحی شوند.
The question and idea of the present article is a mixture of the attitude of resilient social drivers against the earthquake crisis; A matter that is colored by the increase in the population of urbanization and urban development, so that in this way the organizations in charge of urban management pay attention to the management of the earthquake crisis. At the same time, the dimensions of this problem have been expanding, and one of its characteristics is the conflict between the drivers involved in organizing this phenomenon, which has increased its importance; Therefore, the aim of the research was to apply this concept to the geographical context of Tabriz metropolis, so that by identifying the parameters that affect the resilience of the region against the risk of earthquake, it can analyze the path of access to it. Based on the purpose, the current research is in the category of applied research, in terms of its nature and method, it is a descriptive-analytical research. The statistical population of the current research includes experts in the field of crisis management and urban resilience, based on the opinions of 35 experts who are available and familiar with crisis management and urban resilience, the final questionnaire is entered into the Micmac software and the SWAT method is used to identify the key points of knowing the factors in It is used to achieve social resilience in the identified susceptible areas of Tabriz metropolis. The results of the research showed that knowledge and social awareness, education and skills, and ability and access to services are the most important drivers for creating resilient communities in Tabriz. It is very important to use the power of awareness in the direction of active participation to deal with natural disasters such as earthquakes and increase resilience. Why, if people have enough knowledge and skills and are empowered, we can hope that when an earthquake occurs, they will be able to save their lives and those of their loved ones by reacting and behaving appropriately, and will suffer less physical, financial and emotional damage.Extended AbstractIntroduction: Tabriz city is located in the danger zone of high earthquakes, such as the uncoordinated and unprincipled growth of these cities, especially in the last few decades, construction in the boundaries of faults and prone areas, tectonic instabilities, the design and implementation of buildings and facilities and vital arteries disproportionate to the intensity of earthquakes. These cities have increased their vulnerability to earthquakes. The northern fault of Tabriz city, which is known as one of the most dangerous faults of Tabriz city, which passes through the north of Tabriz city and an area of Tabriz city, has caused the high risk of this region compared to the southern regions. This fault is one of the most fundamental tectonic structures in the northeast of Lake Urmia. Although several studies have been done on the earthquakes of Tabriz city in the past, but considering the population of Tabriz city which is more than 160,000 people and the industrial position of this city in the country of Iran, which has caused its rapid growth and development, the earthquake risk of this region should be investigated. It seems necessary in order to obtain more accurate results. Clarifying that today's changes will affect tomorrow's events is a reflection of future-research activities; Therefore, by knowing these developments and planning not to be surprised by the terrible storm of the earthquake crisis, it is possible to take the lever of management and control of the future and instead of facing a fixed future based on past trends, in order to achieve a desirable future with The resilience approach took a step forward. Research materials and methods: Based on the purpose, the current research is in the category of applied research, in terms of its nature and method, it is a descriptive-analytical research.Methodology: is based on the resilience approach against the earthquake crisis with a future-research, analytical-exploratory approach, which will be done by using a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. In this study, to collect primary information for documentary studies (library through reading books, theses, doctoral dissertations) and field observation and interviews with experts; Elites and subject matter experts will be used. The statistical population of the current research includes experts in the field of crisis management and urban resilience, in this regard, there is no explicit rule about the number of experts, and depending on the purpose of Delphi, the scope, the time of data collection, and the availability of resources, the number The participants are usually estimated to be between 15 and 50 people, and in the current research, 35 experts who are available and familiar with crisis management and urban resilience will be used. It is used to identify the key factors affecting the resilience of Tabriz metropolis. In this step, the factors extracted in the previous step are placed in a table two by two and are given to the panel members to value the effective factors based on specific numbers. Finally, the final questionnaire is entered into the Micmac software and based on The given scores are analyzed and key factors are extracted; And the SWAT method is used to identify the key points of knowing the factors in order to achieve social resilience in the identified susceptible areas of Tabriz metropolis. In the current research, after collecting the effective factors against the earthquake risk of Tabriz city using the environmental survey method and studying various sources, these factors were given to the members of the Delphi panel (consisting of 35 experts in the relevant field) in the form of a questionnaire in two rounds. Thus, in the first round, they were asked to determine the importance of each of the variables in the subject of the current research based on the Likert scale (5 degrees) and they were also asked to add their desired variables to the list in addition to the existing variables. do After examining the answers given in the first round of the Delphi panel, finally 87 variables were identified in 14 dimensions. In the second round of the Delphi panel, in order to finally confirm the variables for the analysis and continuation of the research, the factors confirmed in the first round in the form of a questionnaire They have been given to the relevant experts to re-score them. The results of the questionnaires in the second round were such that all the factors in the second round have been approved to continue the work by the experts of the Delphi panel. The factors and factors of the research have been mentionedResults and discussion: The results of the research showed that knowledge and social awareness, education and skills, ability and access to services are the most important drivers for creating resilient communities in Tabriz. Therefore, it is very important to adopt community-oriented crisis management solutions, empower citizens and use the power of awareness in order to actively participate in dealing with natural disasters such as earthquakes and increasing resilience. Why, if people have enough awareness and skills and are empowered, we can hope that when an earthquake occurs, they will be able to save their lives and those of their loved ones by reacting and behaving appropriately, and will suffer less physical, financial, and emotional damage. On the other hand, it should be kept in mind that the failure of modernization policies in the form of large-scale plans and re-reading the role of local communities in planning, along with the emergence of participatory paradigms in planning, necessitates the need to pay attention to individual and local measures. The emphasis of international assemblies on creating resilient communities and emphasizing the role of the local government in realizing this issue marks the beginning of a movement from the bottom up. These measures range from educating residents to formulating building regulations at local levels.Conclusion: The state of resilience of Tabriz city against the risk of earthquake is in a conservative position and it should be planned and improved by reducing the weak points and taking advantage of the opportunities; In this regard, the following strategies are suggested
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