تحلیل اثرات و عوامل کاهش مصرف انرژی در توسعه پایدار شهری(مورد مطالعه، شهر شیراز)

محورهای موضوعی : برنامه ریزی شهری

پیمان افروزه ¹ (کارشناس ارشد تکنولوژی ساختمان، سازمان نظام مهندسی استان فارس، شیراز، ایران)
محمدرضا قربانی پارام ² (استادیار گروه معماری و مدیریت شهری، واحد دماوند،دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران)

تاریخ دریافت : 1402/02/02 تاریخ پذیرش : 1402/06/21 تاریخ انتشار : 1403/02/10

کلید واژه: مصرف بهینه, شهر شیراز, توسعه پایدار, انرژی,

چکیده مقاله :

انرژی یکی از شاخص‌های مهم و موثر در راستای توسعه پایدار شهری است؛ چرا که توسعه پایدار با هدف تامین نیازهای انسانی، در راستای حفظ محیط زیست تلاش می‌نماید. بنابراین نمی‌توان از رابطه و اثرات مدیریت بهینه انرژی در بخش‌های مختلف شهری چشم پوشی نمود. در این پژوهش هدف بررسی اثرات و عوامل کاهش مصرف انرژی در توسعه پایدار شهر شیراز است. روش تحقیق توصیفی–تحلیلی و مبتنی بر داده‌های میدانی است. ابزار گردآوری داده‌ها پرسش‌نامه است. جامعه آماری را شهروندان شهر شیراز به تعداد 1565572 نفر تشکیل داده‌اند. بر اساس فرمول کوکران حجم نمونه به تعداد 384 نفر تعیین شد. همچنین برای شناخت و تحلیل عوامل کاهش مصرف انرژی در شهر شیراز از 21 کارشناس مرتبط جهت مصاحبه استفاده شد. روایی ساختاری و محتوایی پرسش‌نامه تایید و همچنین پایایی نیز با آلفای کرونباخ بالای 70/0 تایید شد. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که عوامل کاهش مصرف انرژی در توسعه پایدار شهری شامل 20 شاخص بوده است که در مجموع از طریق تحلیل عاملی در 5 دسته شامل کالبد و فرم شهری( 05/39)، گسترش خدمات عمومی شهری(25/21)، استفاده از انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر(92/10)، ارتقای شاخص‌های اجتماعی(55/8) و سازگاری اقلیمی(25/7) شناخته شدند. همچنین بر اساس تحلیل محتوا، کاهش مصرف انرژی در توسعه پایدار شهری، 12 تاثیر عمده دارد که با استفاده از مدلسازی معادلات ساختاری، این تاثیرگذاری برابر با 76/0 می‌باشد. نتایج مدلسازی نشان می‌دهد که بیشترین تاثیرگذاری کاهش مصرف انرژی بر توسعه پایدار شهری مربوط به بهبود الگوی مصرف با مقدار اثرکل 88/0 و سپس حفظ محیط زیست با اثر 85/0، افزایش منابع سرمایه‌گذاری شهری با اثر 83/0 و همچنین مصرف بهینه انرژی در بخش ساختمان با اثرکل 82/0 بوده است.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Energy is one of the important and effective indicators in the direction of sustainable urban development; Because sustainable development aims to meet human needs and strives to preserve the environment. Therefore, it is impossible to ignore the relationship and effects of optimal energy management in different parts of the city. The purpose of this research is to investigate the effects and factors of reducing energy consumption in the sustainable development of Shiraz city. The research method is descriptive-analytical and based on field data. The data collection tool is a questionnaire. The statistical population consists of 1,565,572 citizens of Shiraz. Based on Cochran's formula, the sample size was determined to be 384 people. Also, 21 related experts were used for interviews to identify and analyze the factors of reducing energy consumption in Shiraz city. The structural and content validity of the questionnaire was confirmed as well as the reliability with Cronbach's alpha above 0. 70. The results show that the factors of reducing energy consumption in sustainable urban development include 20 indicators, which are in total through factor analysis in 5 categories including urban body and form (39. 05), expansion of urban public services (21. 25), use Renewable energy (10. 92), improvement of social indicators (8. 55) and climate adaptation (7. 25) were recognized. Also, based on the content analysis, reducing energy consumption in sustainable urban development has 12 major effects, which using structural equation modeling, this effect is equal to 0. 76. The modeling results show that the most effective reduction of energy consumption on sustainable urban development is related to the improvement of the consumption pattern with a total effect value of 0. 88, followed by environmental protection with an effect of 0. 85, an increase in urban investment resources with an effect of 0. 83, and consumption Optimum energy in the building sector with a total effect of 0. 82. Extended Abstract Introduction: The formation, maintenance and development of a city based on the sustainable development approach requires various indicators. In fact, due to the nature of integration and correlation of various indicators in the sustainable development approach, one cannot hope for the realization of sustainable development in a city except in the shadow of attention and planning based on various economic, social and environmental indicators. In this regard, one of the indicators that has a wide connection with sustainable development and preservation of the environment and various resources is the energy index. Today, with the expansion of population, urbanization and large industries, a large part of energy is consumed in cities. In many cases, the amount of energy consumption in different parts of the city is more than the standard amount, and this issue has created many challenges. Considering the importance of the subject, exploration in various sectors of sustainable urban development and energy consumption is very important and undeniable. A large part of the sustainable development of Iranian cities can be realized by reducing energy consumption; Because energy and its optimal consumption play an important role in different parts of the development of cities. This impact can be seen in various fields of services, environmental management, urban traffic, construction management and buildings, etc. In this research, the aim is to identify and then analyze the effects and factors of reducing energy consumption in sustainable urban development, which was investigated in the case of Shiraz. The city of Shiraz has a special geographical, service, tourism and industrial position, and its multiple role-playing causes the effects of reducing energy consumption in the development of this city to be known and the related factors to be identified. Methodology: The research method is descriptive-analytical in nature and practical in terms of purpose. The statistical population of the study included the citizens of Shiraz and experts familiar with the subject. The population of this city was equal to 1565572 people according to the latest statistics available to the researcher and based on the population and housing census of 2015. Based on Cochran's formula, the statistical sample was calculated as 384 people and the sampling method was random. A statistical sample of 21 experts was also selected. Data collection methods are in two forms: library (documents) and field (survey). The tools of data collection were questionnaires and interviews. The interview method has been used to identify the factors of reducing energy consumption in sustainable urban development and in order to prepare a questionnaire. The structural and content validity of the questionnaire was confirmed through the elite community, and reliability was also confirmed with Cronbach's alpha above 0. 70. For analysis, the data are summarized, coded and categorized and finally processed to provide the basis for analyzes and connections between these data in order to answer the questions. SPSS and AMOS software were used for data analysis. Quantitative methods were used to measure and analyze the data, which included structural equation modeling and factor analysis. In the method of structural equations, based on the drawn model based on theoretical foundations, various indicators have been placed in the model and the effectiveness of each of the resilience indicators has been determined. Results and discussion: The measurement of sustainable urban development indicators through the T-Tech test shows that except for a few employment indicators of citizens with a significance level of 0. 222; Access of citizens to technology and technology with a significance level of 0. 071 and participation of citizens in city management with a significance level of 0. 055, other indicators were significant at a level less than 0. 05 and equal to 0. 000. Examining the significance direction according to the average indicates that sustainable development indicators include quality of life (2. 882), youth employment (2. 078), economic efficiency (2. 291), poverty reduction (2. 289), improvement of lifestyle Life and consumption pattern (2/085), participation of citizens in city management (2/752), use of clean energy (solar and. . ) (2/205), prevention of excessive city growth (2/362) Preservation of historical and cultural monuments (2/057), preventing the destruction of the city's environment (1/966), air pollution management (2/151) and appropriate distribution of uses (2/640) are in a weak state and this Indicators need serious planning. Also, the result shows that the three indicators of citizens' access to technology and technology with an average of 3. 114, citizens' access to appropriate education with an average of 3. 323 and access to appropriate medical and health centers with an average of 3. 625 are in an average situation and In fact, compared to other indicators of sustainable development in Shiraz, they have more suitable conditions. The results show that the factors for reducing energy consumption in sustainable urban development included 20 indicators. At the level of variables, the highest factor loading was related to the building density factor with a value of 0. 926. Also, two factors of using intelligent energy consumption control systems with a factor load of 0. 920 and using wind energy with a factor load of 0. 910 are known in the second and third ranks. These 20 indicators in total through factor analysis in 5 categories including urban body and form (39/05), expansion of urban public services (21/25), use of renewable energy (10/92), improvement of social indicators (55) 8. ) and climate adaptation (7. 25) were categorized. Also, based on the content analysis, reducing energy consumption in sustainable urban development has 12 major effects, which using structural equation modeling, this effect is equal to 0. 76. In total, it can be said that the 12 examined indicators, including the prosperity of production and economic activities, reducing urban pollution, reducing household expenses, improving the quality of urban life, improving the consumption pattern, increasing access to services, reducing greenhouse gases and etc. can be effective in improving sustainable urban development. Examining the effectiveness of 12 indicators in sustainable urban development shows that the total effect value is 0. 76, and in total, the reviewed indicators can explain about 76% of the variance, role-playing and positive effects in the sustainable urban development of Shiraz. According to the results of this model, the most effective is related to the improvement of the consumption pattern with an explanation of 0. 88. The urban environment preservation index has an explanatory power of 0. 85, the increase of investment has an explanatory power of 0. 83, the optimal energy consumption in the building sector has an explanatory power of 0. 82, and the reduction of household expenses also has an explanatory power of 0. 79 in the field of improving sustainable urban development. Conclusion:  In general, it can be concluded that optimal energy consumption and its reduction can be effective in the sustainable development of Shiraz city, and this influence is realized through different patterns and indicators. Also, the result shows that the effects and factors of reducing energy consumption in various economic, social and environmental dimensions show their effectiveness and therefore affect various dimensions of sustainable urban development. Considering these points, the important role of optimizing energy consumption in the development of Shiraz cannot be ignored. In this regard, it is suggested that 1- local (traditional) patterns should be emphasized in order to reduce energy consumption in the buildings of this city in terms of architecture, form, etc. 2- In order to reduce energy consumption in the building sector and achieve sustainable development, it is suggested Incentive schemes for citizens can be strengthened in order to optimize energy consumption. 3- It is suggested that the costs of reducing the optimal energy consumption should be spent in the urban services sector so that citizens can see the results of their optimal consumption in the energy sector. 4- It is suggested that in order to optimize energy consumption and sustainable development of the city Shiraz, the smart infrastructure sector of this city should be upgraded. 5- It is suggested that suitable financial and credit facilities for citizens to use solar energy should be emphasized and planned. 6- It is suggested that the educational dimension related to energy consumption at the level of Shiraz city neighborhoods and in public places. be explained to the citizens.

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