تحلیل تأثیر رشد شهرنشینی بر تغییر کاربری زمین در شهر تهران با استفاده از رویکرد پویایی شناسی سیستم
محورهای موضوعی : جامعه شناسی
لیلا نصرالهی وسطی
1
(
استادیار گروه علوم اجتماعی- جامعه شناسی، دانشکده ادبیات، علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران ..Leila.nasrolahi@srbiau.ac.ir
)
محمدرضا جلیلوند
2
(
استادیار، دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشکدگان فارابی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران ایران (نویسنده مسول)
Email: rezajalilvand@ut.ac.ir
)
کلید واژه: شهرنشینی, کاربری زمین, برنامه ریزی شهری, مدلسازی, رویکرد سیستمی,
چکیده مقاله :
شهرنشینی سریع منجر به تغییر در کاربری زمین در مناطق شهری شده است. هدف این پژوهش بررسی تأثیر شهرنشینی بر تغییر کاربری در شهر تهران با استفاده از تفکر سیستمی است تا بتوان به درک بهتری از پیامدهای شهرنشینی دست یافت. شهر یک سیستم پیچیده، باز، و پویا است که بررسی آن مستلزم یک رویکرد میان رشته ای می باشد. روش پویایی شناسی سیستم، این الزامات را برای پرداختن به شهر فراهم می آورد. لذا مدلی دینامیکی طراحی شد که با استفاده از رویکرد پویایی شناسی سیستم مورد ارزیابی کمی قرار گرفت. این مطالعه نشان داد که با افزایش جمعیت شهر تهران، کاربری زمین های کشاورزی و باز به تدریج تا سال 1404 تغییر کرده و پیش بینی می شود که زمین های با کاربری ساخت و ساز افزایش خواهد یافت.
Rapid urbanization has led to changes in land use in urban areas. The purpose of this research is to investigate the impact of urbanization on land use change in Tehran using systemic thinking in order to gain a better understanding of the consequences of urbanization. The city is a complex, open, and dynamic system, the study of which requires an interdisciplinary approach. The system dynamics approach provides these requirements to address the city. Therefore, a dynamic model will be designed, which will be quantitatively evaluated using the system dynamics approach. This study showed that with the increase in the population of Tehran, the use of agricultural and open land gradually changed until 1404 and it is predicted that the land used for construction will increase. This is the first study that examines the relationship between the phenomenon of urbanization and land use change in Tehran metropolis and is innovative in this respect.
Chen, J., Gao, J. & Chen, W. (2016a). Urban land expansion and the transitional mechanisms in Nanjing, China, Habitat International, 53, 274-283.
6.Gandhi, S.J., Gorod, A. & Sauser, B. (2011). A case study: the New York city yellow cab system of systems, 2011 6th International Conference on System of Systems Engineering: SoSE in Cloud Computing, Smart Grid, and Cyber Security, IEEE, Albuquerque, NM, June P.p: 27-30.
7.Grogan, P.T. and De Weck, O.L. (2013), An integrated modeling framework for infrastructure system-of-systems simulation, Systems Conference (SysCon), 2013 International, IEEE, Orlando, FL, April P.p: 15-18.
8.Hashempour, H., Zhang, X. & Skitmore, M. (2019). Implications for sustainable land use in high-density cities: Evidence from Hong Kong, Habitat International, 50, P.p: 23-34.
12.Kasai, S., Li, N. & Fang, D. (2015). A system-of-systems approach to understanding urbanization-state of the art and prospect, Smart and Sustainable Built Environment, 4 (2), P.p: 154-171.
19.Mirmiran, A. (2012). Housing in mega cities- a systems engineering approach, International Journal for Housing Science and Its Applications, 36(2), P.p: 83-87.
20.Mohammadi, A., Shafii T, N. & Shakiba, A. (2018). The effects of urban creep on land use change in the suburbs of Tehran metropolis (a case study of the Tehran-Damavand axis), Environmental Sciences Quarterly, 17(4) P.p: 1-26.
21.Munroe, D. K., McSweeney, K., Olson, J. L., & Mansfield, B. (2014). Using economic geography to reinvigorate land-change science. Geoforum, 52, P.p: 12-21.
22.Mushfaghi, V., Hakit Nayini, G, & Habibi, M. (2018). investigating the relationship between land use changes and land prices in Tehran city with an emphasis on the approvals of the Article Five Commission, Geography and Environmental Planning, 30(4), P.p: 1-18.
23.Nasrolahi Vosta, L. & Aghayri Heer, T. (2016). Dynamic analysis of population and its economic consequences using a systemic approach, Journal of Social Development, 11(3), P.p: 167-194.
24.Nath, B., Ni-Meister, W. & Choudhury, R. (2021). Impact of urbanization on land use and land cover change in Guwahati city, India and its implication on declining groundwater level, Groundwater for Sustainable Development, 12, P.p: 100500.
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Chen, J., Gao, J. & Chen, W. (2016a). Urban land expansion and the transitional mechanisms in Nanjing, China, Habitat International, 53, 274-283.
6.Gandhi, S.J., Gorod, A. & Sauser, B. (2011). A case study: the New York city yellow cab system of systems, 2011 6th International Conference on System of Systems Engineering: SoSE in Cloud Computing, Smart Grid, and Cyber Security, IEEE, Albuquerque, NM, June P.p: 27-30.
7.Grogan, P.T. and De Weck, O.L. (2013), An integrated modeling framework for infrastructure system-of-systems simulation, Systems Conference (SysCon), 2013 International, IEEE, Orlando, FL, April P.p: 15-18.
8.Hashempour, H., Zhang, X. & Skitmore, M. (2019). Implications for sustainable land use in high-density cities: Evidence from Hong Kong, Habitat International, 50, P.p: 23-34.
12.Kasai, S., Li, N. & Fang, D. (2015). A system-of-systems approach to understanding urbanization-state of the art and prospect, Smart and Sustainable Built Environment, 4 (2), P.p: 154-171.
19.Mirmiran, A. (2012). Housing in mega cities- a systems engineering approach, International Journal for Housing Science and Its Applications, 36(2), P.p: 83-87.
20.Mohammadi, A., Shafii T, N. & Shakiba, A. (2018). The effects of urban creep on land use change in the suburbs of Tehran metropolis (a case study of the Tehran-Damavand axis), Environmental Sciences Quarterly, 17(4) P.p: 1-26.
21.Munroe, D. K., McSweeney, K., Olson, J. L., & Mansfield, B. (2014). Using economic geography to reinvigorate land-change science. Geoforum, 52, P.p: 12-21.
22.Mushfaghi, V., Hakit Nayini, G, & Habibi, M. (2018). investigating the relationship between land use changes and land prices in Tehran city with an emphasis on the approvals of the Article Five Commission, Geography and Environmental Planning, 30(4), P.p: 1-18.
23.Nasrolahi Vosta, L. & Aghayri Heer, T. (2016). Dynamic analysis of population and its economic consequences using a systemic approach, Journal of Social Development, 11(3), P.p: 167-194.
24.Nath, B., Ni-Meister, W. & Choudhury, R. (2021). Impact of urbanization on land use and land cover change in Guwahati city, India and its implication on declining groundwater level, Groundwater for Sustainable Development, 12, P.p: 100500.