سناریوهای آینده رفتار مصرف‌کننده ورزشی
محورهای موضوعی : علوم ورزشی و سلامتمحمد زرگرزاده اصفهانی 1 , شیوا آزادفدا 2 * , محمد رحیم عیوضی 3 , علی اصغر درودیان 4 , عظیم علیزاده 5
1 - گروه تربیت بدنی، واحد تهران شمال، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.
2 - گروه تربیت بدنی، واحد تهران شمال، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.
3 - گروه آینده پژوهی، دانشکده حکمرانی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.
4 - گروه تربیت بدنی، واحد تهران شمال، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.
5 - پژوهشگاه علوم و معارف دفاع مقدس،تهران،ایران.
کلید واژه: آیندهپژوهی, درآمدزایی, رفتار مصرف‌کننده.,
چکیده مقاله :
آشنایی با عوامل موثر بر رفتار مصرف کنندگان به شرکت ها و سازمان ها کمک می کند تا راهکارهای بازاریابی خود را بهبود بخشند. هدف این پژوهش سناریوهای آینده رفتار مصرف‌کننده ورزشی بود. این پژوهش از لحاظ راهبرد هدفگذاری کاربردی و روش آن توصیفی - تحلیلی و براساس روشهای آینده پژوهی، تبیینی میباشد. جامعه آماری این پژوهش را اساتید حوزه بازاریابی ورزشی که در حوزه رفتار مصرف‌کننده فعالیت علمی و اجرایی داشتند، تشکیل میدهند. انتخاب این افراد به صورت هدفمند بود و تعداد آنها برابر با 20 نفر بود. جهت شناسایی موضوعات مؤثر بر پیشران های مطلوب در آینده رفتار مصرف‌کننده ورزشی مصاحبه با صاحبنظران استفاده شد و مبتنی بر آن تعداد 24 مؤلفه نهایی در ارتباط پیشران های مطلوب در آینده رفتار مصرف‌کننده ورزشی گردید. نتایج بدست آمده نشان داد که 24 عامل بهعنوان پیشران های مطلوب در آینده رفتار مصرف‌کننده ورزشی هستند. براساس یافتههای متغير "شرایط اقتصادی جامعه"، "هوشمندسازی توسعه سبد خرید مشتریان متناسب با بودجه پیشنهادی"، "ساخت مدل علت و معلولی محل مناسب برای عرضه محصولات ورزشی"،" نحوه و سبک زندگی افراد "جزء پیشرانهای مطلوب در آینده رفتار مصرف‌کننده ورزشی میباشند چرا که هم اهمیت و عدم قطعیت بالایی را برای خود ثبت کرده بودند. براین مبنا این سناریوها بررسی تأثیر شرایط اقتصادی و فناوری بر رفتار مصرف‌کننده ورزشی را در بر می‌گیرند. در سناریوهای مختلف، شکوفایی اقتصادی، رکود، هوشمندسازی و بحران اقتصادی تأثیرات متفاوتی بر تقاضا، انتخاب محصولات و سبک زندگی ورزشی افراد دارند، که فرصت‌ها و چالش‌هایی برای برندها ایجاد می‌کند.
Given the rapid and continuous changes in the world of sports and the increasing competition in the sports products market, understanding sports consumer behavior and predicting it in the future is of particular importance. In recent years, various factors such as economic changes, technological advances, social changes and new lifestyles have had significant impacts on how people buy, consume and participate in sports activities. Especially considering the global trends in developing and promoting healthy lifestyles and physical activities, sports consumer behavior has become one of the key topics in sports marketing. This behavior is influenced by drivers such as the economic conditions of the society, the smartization of purchasing processes, changes in lifestyle and also various environmental factors, all of which can affect purchasing decisions and participation in sports. In this regard, accurate prediction of future changes in sports consumer behavior can help brands and companies to design and implement their marketing strategies effectively. Since many of these drivers are highly uncertain, identifying and analyzing them correctly can help organizations prepare for future challenges and opportunities. This study aims to simulate future scenarios in sports consumer behavior in order to gain a better understanding of the factors influencing future changes in this behavior and how sports markets will respond (Bard, 2018). Given that futures studies are completely different from the past and present and are not necessarily a continuation of past trends. In this study, the intention is to redefine the process of consumer behavior in the field of sports, based on the country's social, cultural, and geopolitical capabilities, by recognizing the effective spaces of the future, and to formulate a futures study approach in different dimensions, relying on a new perspective on planning. This research is explanatory in terms of its applied goal-setting strategy and its method is descriptive-analytical and based on future research methods. The statistical population of this research consists of professors in the field of sports marketing who had scientific and executive activities in the field of consumer behavior. These individuals were selected purposefully and their number was equal to 20 people. In order to identify the issues affecting the desired drivers in the future of sports consumer behavior, interviews with experts were used, and based on that, 24 final components were identified in relation to the desired drivers in the future of sports consumer behavior. The results obtained showed that 24 factors are the desired drivers in the future of sports consumer behavior. In addition, in the continuation of the research, the extracted variables and indicators were examined and analyzed using the method of interaction analysis in the Mi'kmaq environment. For this purpose, a 24x24 matrix consisting of 24 indicators (which were a summary of the key components in the research topic) was used to determine the status of each of them (in terms of influence, influenceability, and mutual relationships) in the system. The first step in analyzing the results of the Mikmak is to identify the characteristics of the direct influence of the factors. The results of the analysis were calculated based on calculating two rounds of statistical rotation of the data in the 24x24 matrix. Accordingly, out of a total of 471 influence and influence relationships evaluated in Table 2, 105 relationships had a value of zero (no influence), 176 relationships had a value of 1 (low influence), 229 relationships had a value of 2 (medium influence), and 68 relationships had a value of 3 (strong influence). The matrix filling coefficient is 69.75, which indicates a relatively high and dispersed effect of the factors. What is clear from the state of the dispersion plane of variables affecting the future of sports consumer behavior is the state of instability of the system. Most of the variables are scattered around the diagonal axis of the plane. Except for a few cases that show a high impact on the system, the rest of the variables have an almost similar status to each other. The results showed that 8 factors are located in the southwestern part of the impact matrix - digitalization and online sales of sports products and services, the level of attention to reference groups, the demographic composition of the society, reform of the system and structure of the sports industry, merchandising (commercial sale of products produced by clubs), the spread of unpredictable events such as Corona, the implementation of e-commerce requirements, and the per capita proportion of sports space and society. The four variables "economic conditions of the society", "smartening the development of the customer shopping cart in accordance with the proposed budget", "building a cause-and-effect model of the appropriate place for the supply of sports products", "the lifestyle of individuals" have the greatest impact and the greatest impact. Accordingly, the realization of each of the main scenarios depends on changes in these variables, so the four mentioned components are identified in this research as driving forces. These driving forces, as confirmed by research experts, have a relatively high importance and uncertainty in the research subject due to their high impact and impact, and can be considered as the main uncertainties of the research for the next stage. Finally, it can be stated that the future of consumer behavior in the field of sports is strongly influenced by technology, social, cultural and economic changes. Some of the trends that may be observed in the field of sports and consumer behavior in the future are:
Digitalization trend: With the development of new technologies, consumers are looking for new ways to access sports products and services. Therefore, online stores, digital sports brands and online sports platforms can play a significant role in consumer behavior in the future.
Attention to health and sports: With the increasing awareness of the importance of sports for health, the demand for sports products and services is likely to increase in the future. Brands that respond to these needs appropriately may be more successful.
Sustainability and responsibility: In the future, consumers may pay more attention to brands that pay attention to protecting the environment, using original and sustainable materials, and supporting local communities.
Shopping experience: The shopping experience plays a significant role for consumers in the field of sports. In the future, brands that are able to create a unique and special shopping experience for their customers are likely to be more successful.
Changing time patterns: As time and work patterns change, consumers may be looking for new ways to engage in physical activity. Brands that can respond appropriately to these changes are likely to be more successful.
ایزدی، فرناز؛ احمدی، عاطفه؛ چاره¬جو، فرزین (1400). آینده¬پژوهی توسعه استان کردستان، مسائل و چالش¬های پیش¬روی آن. تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی، 21(62)، ص 279-261.
رضایان قیه¬باشی، احد؛ مرزبان، احسان؛ جهانشاهی، امید (1399). سناریوهای سرگرمی در سیمای جمهوری اسلامی ایران در افق 1404. پژوهش¬های ارتباطی، 27(3)، ص 179-149.
رضایی قادی، مهدی.؛ رفیع، حسین (1400). بررسی کاربردهای آینده¬پژوهی در سیاست¬گذاری عمومی. سپهر سیاست، 8(27)، ص 102-85.
عبدالملکی، حسین؛ میرزازاده، زهراسادات؛ علی دوست قهفرخی، ابراهیم (1396). رتبه‌بندی عوامل مؤثر بر رفتار مصرف‌کنندگان محصولات ورزشی با استفاده ازAHP . مدیریت ورزشی، 9(3)، ص 471-488.
قاسمی، حمید؛ عسگرشمسی، میثم (1398). تحلیل محتوای پژوهش‌های مدیریت فروش و رفتار مصرف‌کننده ورزشی در ایران. مطالعات رفتار مصرف‌کننده، 6(1)، ص 267-286.
محمدی فر، یوسف؛ پورجمشیدی، حدیث (1400). پیشایندهای توسعه رفتار مصرف‌هوشمندانه. مطالعات رفتار مصرف‌کننده، 8(1)، ص 158-173.
Anderson, D.F., Fink, J.S. & Trail, G.T. (2022). Environmental factors associated with spectator attendance and sport consumption behavior: gender and team differences. Marketing Quarterly, 11(1), p. 8-19.
Asadnia, A., CheshmehSohrabi, M., Shabani, A., Asemi, A. & Demneh, M.T. (2022). Future of information retrieval systems and the role of library and information science experts in their development. Journal of Librarianship and Information Science, 55(1), p.1-14.
Hecox, M.G. (2017). Strategic Alliances in the sport industry: a case review of Reebok International and the NFL. Sport Marketing in the New Millennium.
Huang, W.L., Hu, P., Tsai, S. & Chen, X.D. (2020). The business analysis on the home-bias of E-commerce consumer behavior. Electronic Commerce Research, 21(3), p.1-25.
Humphreys, B.R. (2018). The size and scope of the sports industry in the United States. IASE/NAASE Working Paper Series, no. 1, p. 08-11.
Linn, M. (2008). Library strategies: planning strategically and strategic planning. Emerald Group Publishing.
Sawyer, S. & Carmel, E. (2022). The multi-dimensional space of the futures of work. Information Technology & People. DOI:10.1108/ITP-12-2020-0857
Wootton, S. & Horne, T. (2020). Strategic thinking. British Library Cataloguing-in-publication Data.