آینده‌پژوهی ظرفیت پیوندهای روستایی - شهری برای بازساخت اقتصادی فضای روستایی (مطالعه موردی: سکونتگاههای روستایی استان قم)
محورهای موضوعی : مطالعات برنامه ریزی روستایی و عشایری
ناصر شفیعی ثابت
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سوگند خاکسار
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1 - گروه جغرافیای انسانی و آمایش، دانشکده علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران
2 - گروه جغرافیای انسانی و آمایش، دانشکده علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران
کلید واژه: پیوندهای روستایی ـ شهری, تحولات فضایی, اقتصاد روستایی, استان قم,
چکیده مقاله :
امروزه در بسیاری از کشورهای جهان، از جمله ایران، به دلیل وجود ظرفیت‌های فراوان آشکار و پنهان در تعامل دو سویه مراکز روستایی و شهری در پهنه منطقه‌ای، دولت‌ها همواره ایجاد پیوندهای روستایی-شهری را مد نظر داشته‌اند؛ اما با وجود این، در کشور ما آنطور که باید از ظرفیت این پیوندها استفاده نشده است. پژوهش حاضر با رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی و با استفاده از روش سناریونویسی، به تحلیل وضعیت آینده ظرفیت پیوندهای روستایی-شهری و بازسازی اقتصادی فضای روستایی استان قم پرداخته است. این پژوهش که از نظر هدف کاربردی است، با توصیف و تحلیل اطلاعات به دو روش پرسشنامه‌ای و اسنادی تدوین شده است. برای تجزیه و تحلیل داده‌ها از نرم‌افزارهای میک مک و سناریو ویزارد استفاده شد و غربالگری و اعتبارسنجی شاخص‌ها و پیش‌بینی آینده در چارچوب تصمیم‌گیری در مورد ظرفیت پیوندهای روستایی-شهری برای بازسازی فضای اقتصادی روستای استان قم انجام شد. محدوده جغرافیایی این پژوهش استان قم است. یافته‌های این تحقیق نشان داد که 20 پیشران به عنوان ظرفیت‌های اصلی پیوندهای روستایی-شهری و بازسازی اقتصادی منطقه روستایی در محدوده مورد مطالعه مؤثر بوده‌اند و بر اساس این پیشران‌ها، سناریونویسی ارائه شد. از جمله مهم‌ترین عوامل کلیدی در رتبه‌بندی نهایی این تحقیق، می‌توان به اهمیت افزایش کیفیت و دسترسی جاده‌های بین شهر و روستا، مشارکت و سرمایه‌گذاری مناطق شهری در فعالیت‌های روستایی، گسترش خدمات حمل و نقل عمومی روستایی-شهری و احداث واحدهای صنعتی و کارگاهی شهری در روستاها اشاره کرد. در این تحقیق با شناسایی مهم‌ترین نیروهای پیشران، از رویکرد برنامه‌ریزی با روش سناریونویسی استفاده شد. بهترین و ایده‌آل‌ترین شرایط ممکن به عناصر پیشران مانند کیفیت و دسترسی جاده‌های بین شهر و روستا، مشارکت و سرمایه‌گذاری شهرها در فعالیت‌های روستایی و غیره اشاره دارد که مثبت خواهد بود.
Today, in many countries of the world, including Iran, due to the many open and hidden capacities in the two-way interaction of rural and urban centers in the regional area, the governments have always considered the establishment of rural-urban linkages.; But despite this, the capacity of these linkages has not been utilized as much as it should be in our country. The current research, with a future research approach using the scenario writing method, has analyzed the future state of the capacity of rural-urban linkages and the economic reconstruction of the rural space in Qom province. This research, which is practical in terms of purpose, has been compiled by describing and analyzing information in two ways, questionnaire and documents. To analyze the data, Mic Mac software and Scenario Wizard were used, and screening and validation of indicators and future forecasting were carried out in the context of decision-making about the capacity of rural-urban linkages to rebuild the economic atmosphere of the village of Qom province. The geographical scope of this research is Qom province. The findings of this research showed that 20 drivers were effective as the main capacities of rural-urban linkages and economic reconstruction of the rural area in the study area, and based on these drivers, scenario writing was presented. Among the most important key factors in the final rating of this research, are the importance of increasing the quality and accessibility of the roads between the city and the village, the partnership and investment of urban areas in rural activities, the expansion of rural-urban public transportation services and He pointed out the construction of urban industrial and workshop units in the villages. In this research, by identifying the most important driving forces, the planning approach with the scenario writing method was used. The best and most ideal possible conditions refer to the driving elements such as the quality and accessibility of the roads between the city and the village, the partnership and investment of the cities in rural activities, etc. will be positive.
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