عوامل کلان اقتصادی، بیکاری و کسری بودجه؛ اثرات آستانه ای توسعه پایدار محیط زیست برای سیاست بازار انرژی
محورهای موضوعی : اقتصاد محیط زیستمحمد تقی زاده 1 , مرجان دامن کشیده 2 * , هوشنگ مومنی وصالیان 3 , مجید افشاری راد 4
1 - گروه اقتصاد، واحد تهران مرکزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.
2 - گروه اقتصاد، واحد تهران مرکزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران. *(مسوول مکاتبات)
3 - گروه اقتصاد، واحد تهران مرکزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.
4 - گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران .
کلید واژه: عوامل کلان اقتصادی, بیکاری, کسری بودجه, قیمت نفت, پایداری توسعه محیط زیست مدل رویکرد آستانهای.,
چکیده مقاله :
زمینه و هدف: امروزه نقش انكارناپذير توسعه محيط زيست در فعاليتهاي اقتصادي جوامع بشري سبب شده تا اصطلاح توسعه پايدار محیط زیست در ادبيات جهاني مطرح گردد. توسعه پايدار درك درست از تعامل در نظام به هم پيوسته فرايندهاي اقتصادي، اجتماعي زيست محيطي است. هدف مقاله حاضر بررسی عوامل کلان اقتصادی، بیکاری و کسری بودجه؛ اثرات آستانه ای توسعه پایدار محیط زیست برای سیاست بازار انرژی می باشد.
روش بررسی: برای این پژوهش از مدل با رویکرد آستانهای حد ملایم (STR) بر اساس داده‌های سالانه کشور ایران طی دوره 2022-1990 استفاده شد.
یافته ها: نتایج برآورد قسمت غیرخطی مدل نشان از این دارد که توسعه پایدار محیط زیست در مدل اول و سوم منجر به افزایش میزان صادرات نفت خام ایران و نرخ بیکاری شده است. در مدل دوم نیز، توسعه پایدار محیط زیست منجر به کاهش 4% کسری بودجه شده است. همچنین نتایج نشان از وجود رابطه مثبت متغیرهای اندازه دولت بعنوان شاخص ثبات سیاسی و اثرات سیاسی تحریم با میزان صادرات نفت خام ایران، کسری بودجه و بیکاری دارد. بطوریکه به ازای یک درصد افزایش در اندازه دولت و اثرات سیاسی تحریم، به ترتیب؛ 5%، 4% و 3% میزان صادرات نفت خام ایران، کسری بودجه و بیکاری افزایش داشته است.
بحث و نتیجه گیری: مطابق نتایج انتظار می‌رود دولت‌ها اقدام جدی را با اتخاذ تدابیر مناسب از جمله توسعه سرمایه‌گذاری خارجی جهت بستر سازی مناسب برای بهبود توسعه پایدار محیط زیست، نظارت دقیق بر اعتبارات اشتغال‌زایی و تسهیلات بر بخش خصوصی، زمینه‌سازی برای تشویق سرمایه‌گذاری بخش خصوصی و خارجی، از طریق ثبات سیاست‌ها و اندازه دولت و به‌طور‌کلی رفع موانع فضای کسب‌و‌کار در تعدیل نرخ بیکاری و کاهش کسری بودجه در راستای بهبود توسعه پایدار محیط زیست را به عمل آورند. همچنین توسعه بازار‌ها و واسطه‌های مالی با از بین بردن نا‌کارایی‌های بازار سرمایه و فراهم کردن فرصت‌های بیشتر برای افراد کم‌درآمد در جهت استقراض و ایجاد فرصت سرمایه‌گذاری برای افراد می‌تواند در زمینه بهبود نرخ بیکاری مفید باشد.
ی مفید باشد.
Background and Objective: Today, the undeniable role of environmental development in the economic activities of human societies has caused the term sustainable environmental development to be brought up in world literature. Sustainable development is a correct understanding of interaction in the interconnected system of economic, social and environmental processes. The purpose of this article is to examine macroeconomic factors, unemployment and budget deficit; Threshold effects of sustainable environmental development for energy market policy.
Material and Methodology: For this research, the model with the mild threshold approach (STR) was used based on the annual data of Iran during the period of 1990-2022.
Findings: The estimation results of the nonlinear part of the model show that the sustainable development of the environment in the first and third models has led to an increase in Iran's crude oil export and unemployment rate. In the second model, the sustainable development of the environment has led to a 4% decrease in the budget deficit. Also, the results show that there is a positive relationship between government size variables as an indicator of political stability and the political effects of sanctions with Iran's crude oil export, budget deficit and unemployment. So that for a one percent increase in the size of the government and the political effects of sanctions, respectively; 5%, 4% and 3% of Iran's crude oil export, budget deficit and unemployment have increased.
Discussion and Conclusion: According to the results, governments are expected to take serious action by adopting appropriate measures, including the development of foreign investment to create a suitable platform for improving the sustainable development of the environment, careful monitoring of job creation credits and facilities for the private sector, and laying the groundwork to encourage private sector investment. and foreign, through the stability of policies and the size of the government and in general, removing the obstacles of the business environment in adjusting the unemployment rate and reducing the budget deficit in order to improve the sustainable development of the environment. Also, the development of markets and financial intermediaries by eliminating the inefficiencies of the capital market and providing more opportunities for low-income people to borrow and create investment opportunities for people can be useful in improving the unemployment rate.
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