نقش بهرهوری کل عوامل تولید در حوزه ساخت و ساز در کشورهای ایران و آذربایجان
محورهای موضوعی : مدیریت بازرگانی
1 - فارغ التحصیل دکتری اقتصاد دانشگاه معماری و عمران جمهوری آذربایجان، گروه مدیریت و اقتصاد عمومی، باکو، جمهوری آذربایجان
2 - پروفسور اقتصاد عمومی دانشگاه معماری و عمران جمهوری آذربایجلن، گروه مدیریت و اقتصاد عمومی، باکو، جمهوری آذربایجان
کلید واژه: بهره وری کل عوامل تولید, قیمت مسکن, روش خودتوضیح برداری با وقفه های گسترده,
چکیده مقاله :
اهمیت روزافزون بازار دارایی‌ها، بررسی مداوم بازار مسکن و مستغلات را ضروری می‌سازد. نوسان های متغیرهای اقتصادی در بخش‌های مختلف به‌ویژه نوسان بازار دارایی‌ها پدیده متداول در اغلب کشورها بشمار می‌رود، به‌طوری که اقتصاد گاهی به اوج و زمانی به نقطه حضیض می‌رسد. در این میان، یکی از اجزای مهم بازار دارایی‌ها و سرمایه، بازار مسکن است. در این پژوهش به بررسی تأثیر بهرهوری کل عوامل تولید بر شاخص حوزه ساخت و ساز قیمت مسکن) در کشورهای ایران و جمهوری آذربایجان طی دوره زمانی 1377 تا 1393 با لحاظ داده‌های فصلی پرداخته شده است. برای برآورد تأثیر متغیرها، از روش خودتوضیح برداری با وقفه های گسترده بهره گرفته شده است. نتایج برآوردها حاکی از آن است که، بهرهوری کل عوامل تولید در کوتاه مدت و بلندمدت دارای تأثیر مثبتی بر شاخص حوزه ساخت و ساز (قیمت مسکن) در کشورهای ایران و آذربایجان می‌باشد. همچنین متغیرهای میزان تسهیلات اعطایی سیستم بانکی، کل مخارج تولید مسکن، تورم و شهرنشینی نیز که به عنوان متغیرهای کنترلی وارد مدل شده بودند، دارای تأثیر مثیت معنی دار بر قیمت مسکن در کشورهای مزبور می باشند.
The constant importance of assets market necessitates continual investigation of housing and real estate market. Economical fluctuations variables in different sections in particular in assets market are a common phenomenon in most of the countries. Economy may once reach the highest point and yet the lowest in another. One of the most important parts of assets is housing estate. This study is about to investigate the effect of total factor inputs productivity on building construction price index in Iran and Azerbaijan countries in a span of time between 1998-2014 based on quarterly measures. To assess the effects of the variables auto regression distributed lag method was used. The results indicated that, total factor inputs on building construction price index in the short and long run has positive impact on the field of building price index in both Iran and Azerbaijan countries. The credit facilities granted by the banking system, total housing production costs, inflation and urbanity acted as control variables had significant and positive impact on the housing price in both of countries. Which were entered into the model as control variables, have had significant and positive impact on the housing price in such countries.
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Memarian, E., Yadollahzadeh Tabari, N., & Ahsani, A. (2015), The Effect of Macroeconomic Factors on Housing Prices in Isfahan. 2nd International Conference on Modern Research in Management, Economics and Humanities, (In Persian).
Nagi Meydani, A. A., Fallahi, M. A., & Zabihi, M. (In Persian). The Dynamic Effect of Macroeconomic Factors on Housing Price Volatility in Iran. Journal of Knowledge and Development, 31, 160-186.
Nofersti, M. (1999), Unitroot and Cointegration in Econometrics. Tehran: Resa Publishers, (In Persian).
Oikarinen, E. (2007), Studies on Housing Price Dynamics. Turku School of Economics.
Penn World TableVersion 9.0. (2016), Center for International Comparrisons of Production, Income and Prices at the Univercity of Pennsylvania. Retrieved from http://www. Ggdc.net/pwt.
Rezayi, M. (2014), The Effect of GDP Growth on the Housing Market. The Context of Iran's Economic Outlook, (In Persian).
Sagafi, P. (2015), The Effect of Institutional Factors on Total factor Productivity in Selected Developing Countries. Master's Thesis, Tabriz: Islamic Azad University, (In Persian).
Tashkini, A. (2005), Applied Econometrics with Microfit. Tehran: The Dibagaran Publishers (In Persian).
_||_Ahmad, H., Ilyas, M., Mahmood, T., & Afzal, M. (2010), Exploring the Effect of Total Factor Productivity Growth on Future Output Growth: Evidence from a Panel of East Asian Countries. Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 1, 105-122.
Alipour Nazari, N. (2015), The Effect of Knowledge Economy on the Development of Stock Markets in Selected Developing Countries. Master's Thesis, Tabriz: Islamic Azad University, (In Persian).
Awan, A. G., & Alam, A. (2015), Impact of Agriculture Productivity on Economic Growth: A Case Study of Pakistan. Industrial Engineering Letters, 7, 27-33.
AzƏrbaycan Respublikasinin. (2016), Retrieved from http://www.cbar.az/.
Central bank. (2016), Economic Time Series Database. Retrieved from http://www.tsd.cbi.ir/, (In Persian).
Central bank. (2015), Economic Research Collection, (In Persian).
Dornbusch, R., & Fischer, S. (1994), Macroeconomics. McGraw-Hill.
Dupor, B. (2005), Stabilizing Non-Fundamental Asset Price Movements under Discretion and Limited Information. Journal of Monetary Economics, 52, 727-747.
Ghaderi, J., & Izadi, B. (In Persian). The Effect of Economic and Social Factors on Housing Prices in Iran (1971-2012). Journal of Urban Economics, 1, 73-93, (In Persian).
Hayes, K. J., Slottje, D. J., Nieswiadomy, M. L., & Wolff, E. N. (1994), The Relationship between Productivity Changes and Poverty in the United States. Journal of Income Distribution, 1.
Heideken, V. Q. V., & Finocchiaro, D. (2012), Do Central Banks React to House Prices? Research Department. Gentral Benk Of Sweden, 21.
Khani, B. (2014), Productivity and Importance in Organizations. Tabriz: Firoozkooh Branch, (In Persian).
Khobazzadeh Abarghuyi, M. E., & Nafisi, S. (2012), The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Housing Prices with Using Panel Data. The First International Conference on Econometrics, (In Persian).
Memarian, E., Yadollahzadeh Tabari, N., & Ahsani, A. (2015), The Effect of Macroeconomic Factors on Housing Prices in Isfahan. 2nd International Conference on Modern Research in Management, Economics and Humanities, (In Persian).
Nagi Meydani, A. A., Fallahi, M. A., & Zabihi, M. (In Persian). The Dynamic Effect of Macroeconomic Factors on Housing Price Volatility in Iran. Journal of Knowledge and Development, 31, 160-186.
Nofersti, M. (1999), Unitroot and Cointegration in Econometrics. Tehran: Resa Publishers, (In Persian).
Oikarinen, E. (2007), Studies on Housing Price Dynamics. Turku School of Economics.
Penn World TableVersion 9.0. (2016), Center for International Comparrisons of Production, Income and Prices at the Univercity of Pennsylvania. Retrieved from http://www. Ggdc.net/pwt.
Rezayi, M. (2014), The Effect of GDP Growth on the Housing Market. The Context of Iran's Economic Outlook, (In Persian).
Sagafi, P. (2015), The Effect of Institutional Factors on Total factor Productivity in Selected Developing Countries. Master's Thesis, Tabriz: Islamic Azad University, (In Persian).
Tashkini, A. (2005), Applied Econometrics with Microfit. Tehran: The Dibagaran Publishers (In Persian).