بررسی اثر سرریز تحقیقات بر بهره‌وری (مطالعه موردی بخش کشاورزی ایران)
محورهای موضوعی : مدیریت بازرگانی
سید صفدر حسینی
1
(استاد، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران، کرج، البرز)
حبیب شهبازی
2
(استادیار، گروه اقتصادکشاورزی دانشگاه سید جمال‌الدین اسدآبادی، اسد‌آباد، همدان)
اکرم عباسی‌فر
3
(کارشناس ارشد اقتصادکشاورزی، کارشناس دفتر بررسی‌های اقتصادی سازمان حمایت مصرف‌کنندگان و تولید‌کنندگان)
کلید واژه: تحقیقات کشاورزی, بهره‌وری بخش کشاورزی, سرریز و ایران,
چکیده مقاله :
تحقیقات به عنوان راهبردی مناسب برای افزایش تولید و عرضه محصولات کشاورزی و رفع فقر و کمبود مواد غذایی می‌باشد.تحقیقات به اشکال گوناگونی بر تولید و بهره‌وری بخش کشاورزی اثرگذار می‌باشد. سرریز تحقیقات از سایر بخش‌ها و کشورها، بخش مهمی از ارتقای بهره‌وری بخش کشاورزی را در برمی گیرد. در این پژوهش با استفاده از روش حداقل مربعات و الگوی وقفه‌گیری آلمون، به بررسی و ارزیابی اثر تحقیقات و سرریزهای آن برای سال‌های 1339 تا 1391 پرداخته شد. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که کشش تحقیقات بخش کشاورزی 311/0، تحقیقات سایر بخش‌های اقتصادی 109/0، تحقیقات ناشی از کالاهای وارداتی سرمایه‌ای، 057/0 و تحقیقات ناشی از کالاهای وارداتی واسطه‌ای 0462/0 می باشد. ضریب جابجایی عرضه ناشی تحقیقات بخش کشاورزی 193/0، تحقیقات سایر بخش‌های اقتصادی 068/0، تحقیقات ناشی از کالاهای وارداتی سرمایه‌ای، 035/0 و تحقیقات ناشی از کالاهای وارداتی واسطه‌ای 029/0 برآورد شده است. بنابراین تحقیقات بخش کشاورزی، بیشتر از تحقیقات سایر بخش‌ها (سرریزها) بر بهره‌وری بخش کشاورزی اثرگذار می‌باشد.
Research and development (R&D) is a suitable strategy for increasing agricultural production and supply and alleviating poverty and food shortages. Research and development affects agricultural productivity and production in several ways. Spillovers of research and development from other sectors and foreign countries has an important role in increasing agricultural productivity. In this study, by using OLS and Almon distribution lag model, agricultural research and development policy and spillovers for the years 1959-2012 are evaluated .The results indicate that agricultural research and development elasticity is 0.311, other sectors research and development elasticity is 0.109, capital input import elasticity is 0.057 and intermediate input import is 0.046. So, supply of agricultural research and development parameter is 0.193, supply of other sectors research and development parameter is 0.068, supply of imported research and development (capital input) parameter is 0.035 and supply of imported (intermediate input) research and development parameter is 0.029.Therefore, agricultural research has more impact than other sectors research (spillovers) on agricultural productivity.
- Abolhasani, L. (2001), “The role of the agricultural laborer on the total factor productivity and barriers to their absorption in the agricultural sector in Khorasan province”, Master's thesis, Faculty of Agriculture. Tarbiat Modares University.
- Akbari, N and Ranjkesh, M. (2003), “Investigating the Growth Efficiency of Total Production Factors in Iran's Agricultural Sector during 1345-75”, the Agricultural Economics and Development Quarterly, N43, 117- 142.
- Amir Teymuri, S and Khalilian, S. (2007), “Growth of Total Productivity of Production Factors and its Prospects in the Fourth Development Plan”, Agricultural Economics and Development, N 59, 37- 52.
- Amini, A. (2005), “Measuring and Analyzing the Productivity Process by Different Economic Sectors of Iran, Journal of Program and Budget”, N 93, 73- 110.
- Central bank of Islamic Republic of Iran. (2010), “Productivity Indicators of Iran's Economy in 1997-2007”, http://www.cbi.ir.
- Central bank of Islamic Republic of Iran. (2014), “Capital inventory in Iranian economy 1974- 2012”, cbi.ir.
- Central bank of Islamic Republic of Iran. (2014), “Iranian National Accounts”, cbi.ir.
- Tahami Pur, M and Shahmoradi, M. (2007), “Measuring the Productivity Growth of Whole Factors in the Agricultural Sector and Investigating its Contribution to the Growth of Value Added”, Quarterly Journal of Agricultural Economics, V 2, N 1, 232- 317.
- Hoseyni, S and Khaledi, M. (2004), “Investigating the Economic Effects of Iranian Agricultural Research (A Study on Rice Cultivars)”, Iranian Journal of Agricultural Science, V 35, N 1, 1- 11.
- Hoseyni, S and Hasan Pur, M. (2006), “Economic Evaluation of Agricultural Research in Iran; Case Study of Sugar Beet”, Iranian Agricultural Science Journal, V 37, N 2, 1- 11.
- Hoseyni, S; Hasan Pur, M and Sadeghiyan, S. (2007), “Investigating the effect of sugar beet research on sugar delivery in Iran”, Choghandarfand Magazine, V 23, N 1, 79-92.
- Hoseyni, S and Shahbazi, H. (2012), “Investigating the Effects of Research on Eliminating the Supply and Demand Demand”, Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, Journal of Economics and Development, V 27, N 1, 16-024.
- Hoseyni, S and Shahbazi, H. (2014), “Determining the optimal cost of agricultural research in Iran”, Journal of Agricultural Economics Research and Development, V 45, N 1, 23- 40.
- Hoseyni, S and Shahbazi, H. (2013), “Estimated Supply and Demand for the Iranian Agricultural Sector, 1959-2006”, Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development V 27, N 1, 16-024.
- Khaksar Astaneh, H and Karbasi, A. (2005), “Calculation of Final Rate of Investment Returns in Iranian Agricultural Research, Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, N 50, 125-0137.
- Khavari Nejad, A. (2006), “Productivity Indicators of Iran Economy, Iranian Economic Accounts Quarterly”, V 1, N 1, 24- 39.
- Rafati, M and Najafi, B. (2006), “Determination of the Rate of Wheat Seed Improvement Research in Fars Province”, Agricultural Economics and Development, V 4, N 15, 9- 33.
- Rafati , M and Najafi, B. (2006), “Determination of the Rate of Wheat Seed Improvement Research in Fars Province, Agricultural Economics and Development, V 4, N 15, 9- 23.
- Rahmani Karami, S. (1999), “Economic evaluation of blue-wheat plan, Master's thesis, Faculty of Economic & Political Sciences”, Shahid Beheshti University.
- Shahbazi, H. (2012),” Economic Evaluation of Agricultural Research in Iran”, Ph.D., Faculty of Economics and Agricultural Development, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran.
- Shahnavazi, A and Hoseyni, S. (2011), “Evaluating the Economic Interest of Researching and Promoting Almond Cultivars in Iran, Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, V 24, N 2, 263- 274.
- Safari, K. (2010), “Measuring Productivity under Iranian Agriculture Sectors”, Faculty of Economics and Agricultural Development, Master's Degree Program, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources of Tehran University.
- Mafi, H and Arzandeh, S. (2009), “Investigating the Total Productivity of Production Factors Under the Iranian Agriculture Sectors”, Proceedings of the 7th Conference on Agricultural Economics, Iran Agricultural Economics Association, Karaj, Iran.
- Mehrabi, M. (2009), “The evolution of research credit in the country”, the Center for Research Policy Science of the country.
- Deputy Director General for Strategic Planning and Control (various years), Budget Law, Tehran.
- Nuri Naeini, M. (1986), “The Role of Research in Agricultural Development, Planning and Development”, N 7, 29- 39.
- Vajdani Tehrani, H and Razini Rahmani, A. (2000), “The Effect of Agricultural Research Costs on Value and Productivity”, Proceedings of the Third Conference on Agricultural Economics, Iranian Agricultural Economics Association, Mashhad, Iran.
- Yazdi Samadi, B. (1988), “The role and importance of research on self-sufficiency of agricultural products”, Proceedings of the First National Congress on Agricultural Development, Agricultural Research Organization, Tehran, Iran.
- Akaike, H. (1973), “Information Theory and an Extension of the Maximum Likelihood Principle”, Second, International Symposium on Information Theory, Budapest: Akademiai Kiado.
- Alston, J, M. (2000), “Spillovers”, Australian Journal of Agricultural Recourse Economics, 46(3):315–46.
- Alston, J, C, Chan-Kang, M, Marra, P, Pardey & and T, Wyatt, (2000), a Meta-Analysis of Rates of Return to Agricultural R&D: Ex Pede Herculem?, Research Report No. 1 13, International Food Policy Research Institute, WashingtonDC.
- Alston, J M, P G, Pardey, J S, James & M A, Andersen, (2010), the Economics of Agricultural R&D, Annual Review of Resource Economics, 1: 537-565.
- Araji, A A, F C White & J F Guenthner. (1995), “Spillovers and the Returns to Agricultural Research for Potatoes”, Journal of Agricultural Resource Economics, 20(2):263–76.
- Beintema, N, G J, Stads, K, Fuglie & P Heisey, (2012), ASTI Global Assessment of Agricultural R&D Spending Developing: Countries Accelerate Investment, International Food Policy Research Institute, 1-24.
- Davidson, R, & J G, MacKinnon, (1993), Estimation and Inference in Econometrics, Oxford University Press.
- Ellis, F, (1992), Agricultural Policies in Developing Countries, Cambridge University Press
- Evenson, R E, & Y, Kislev, (1973), Research and Productivity in Wheat and Maize, Journal of Political Economic, 81:1309–29.
- Griliches, Z, (1958), Research Costs and Social Returns: Hybrid Corn and Related Innovations, Journal of Political Economic, 66(5):419–31.
- Griliches, Z, (1964), Research Expenditures, Education and the Aggregate Agricultural Production Function, American Economic Review, 54(6):961–74.
- Hoggblade, S, (2007), Returns to Investment in Agriculture, Policy Synthesis Food Security Research Project-Zambia, No.19 (available at http://wwwaec.msu.edu/agecon/fs2/zambia/index.htm).
- Hosseini, S S, E, Hassanpour & S Y, Sadeghian, (2009), an Economic Evaluation of Iranian Public Agricultural R&D Policy: The Case of Sugar beet, Research Policy, 38: 1446-1452.
- Huffman, W E & R E, Evenson, (1993), Science for Agriculture: A Long-Term Perspective, Ames, IA: Iowa State Univ. Press.
- Kealey, T ,(1996), The Economic Laws of Scientific Research, St. Martin’s Press, New York.
- Kiani, A K, M, Iqbak & T, Javad, (2008), Total Factor Productivity and Agricultural Research Relationship: Evidence from Crops Sub-Sector of Pakistan’s Punjab, European Journal of Scientific Research, 23 (21). 87-97.
- Maredia, M K, R, Ward & D, Byerlee, (1996), Econometric Estimation of a Global Spillover Matrix for Wheat Varietal Technology, Agricultural Economics, 14:159–73.
- Norton, G W & J S, Davis, (1981), Evaluating Returns to Agricultural Research: A Review, American Journal of agricultural Economics, 63(4):685–99.
- Thomas, G, G, Fox, J, Brinkman, J, Oxley, R, Gill & B, Junkins, (2001), an Economic Analysis of the Returns to Canadian Swine Research: 1974-97, Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 49:153-180.
- Pasour, Jr E C & M A, Johnson. (1982), “Bureaucratic Productivity: the Case of Agricultural Research Revisited”, Public Choice, 39 (2): 301-317.
- Pardey, P G & N M, Beintema. (2001), “Slow Magic: Agricultural R&D a Century after Mendel, Food Policy Report”, Washington D.C.
- Pardey, P G, J M, Alston & R R, (2006), Agricultural R&D in the Developing World: Too Little, Too Late? Washington, DC: International Food Policy Resource Institution.
- Pardey, P G & J M, Alston. (2010), “US Agricultural Research in a Global Food Security Setting”, A Report of the CSIS Task Force on Food Security, Center for Strategic and International Studies.
- Peterson, W L, (1967), Returns to Poultry Research in the United States, Journal of Farm Economics, 49:656-669.
- Salami, H, (1996), Productivity and Technical Change in Iranian Crop Sector, Ph.D Dissertation, University of Alberta.
- Solow, R. (1957), “Technical Change and Aggregate Production Function”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 39 (2), 312-320
- Schultz, T W. (1953), “The Economic Organization of Agriculture”, New York: McGraw-Hill.
- Schwarz, G, (1978), Estimating the Dimension of a Model, Annals of Statistics, 6: 461-464.
- Theil, H, (1981), Economic Forecasts and Policy, 2nd Edition, Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Co.
- Traxler, G & D, Byerlee. (2001), “Linking Technical Change to Research Effort: an Examination of Aggregation and Spillovers Effects”, Agricultural Economics, 24:235–46.
- White, F C & J Jr, Havlicek. (1981), “Optimal Expenditure for Agricultural Research and Extension: Implication of Underfunding”, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 47-55.
- World Bank 2007 and 2014, World Bank Agricultural Research by Region, Washington,D.C. (available at http://www.worldbank.org/ data/ online database. html).
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- Abolhasani, L. (2001), “The role of the agricultural laborer on the total factor productivity and barriers to their absorption in the agricultural sector in Khorasan province”, Master's thesis, Faculty of Agriculture. Tarbiat Modares University.
- Akbari, N and Ranjkesh, M. (2003), “Investigating the Growth Efficiency of Total Production Factors in Iran's Agricultural Sector during 1345-75”, the Agricultural Economics and Development Quarterly, N43, 117- 142.
- Amir Teymuri, S and Khalilian, S. (2007), “Growth of Total Productivity of Production Factors and its Prospects in the Fourth Development Plan”, Agricultural Economics and Development, N 59, 37- 52.
- Amini, A. (2005), “Measuring and Analyzing the Productivity Process by Different Economic Sectors of Iran, Journal of Program and Budget”, N 93, 73- 110.
- Central bank of Islamic Republic of Iran. (2010), “Productivity Indicators of Iran's Economy in 1997-2007”, http://www.cbi.ir.
- Central bank of Islamic Republic of Iran. (2014), “Capital inventory in Iranian economy 1974- 2012”, cbi.ir.
- Central bank of Islamic Republic of Iran. (2014), “Iranian National Accounts”, cbi.ir.
- Tahami Pur, M and Shahmoradi, M. (2007), “Measuring the Productivity Growth of Whole Factors in the Agricultural Sector and Investigating its Contribution to the Growth of Value Added”, Quarterly Journal of Agricultural Economics, V 2, N 1, 232- 317.
- Hoseyni, S and Khaledi, M. (2004), “Investigating the Economic Effects of Iranian Agricultural Research (A Study on Rice Cultivars)”, Iranian Journal of Agricultural Science, V 35, N 1, 1- 11.
- Hoseyni, S and Hasan Pur, M. (2006), “Economic Evaluation of Agricultural Research in Iran; Case Study of Sugar Beet”, Iranian Agricultural Science Journal, V 37, N 2, 1- 11.
- Hoseyni, S; Hasan Pur, M and Sadeghiyan, S. (2007), “Investigating the effect of sugar beet research on sugar delivery in Iran”, Choghandarfand Magazine, V 23, N 1, 79-92.
- Hoseyni, S and Shahbazi, H. (2012), “Investigating the Effects of Research on Eliminating the Supply and Demand Demand”, Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, Journal of Economics and Development, V 27, N 1, 16-024.
- Hoseyni, S and Shahbazi, H. (2014), “Determining the optimal cost of agricultural research in Iran”, Journal of Agricultural Economics Research and Development, V 45, N 1, 23- 40.
- Hoseyni, S and Shahbazi, H. (2013), “Estimated Supply and Demand for the Iranian Agricultural Sector, 1959-2006”, Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development V 27, N 1, 16-024.
- Khaksar Astaneh, H and Karbasi, A. (2005), “Calculation of Final Rate of Investment Returns in Iranian Agricultural Research, Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, N 50, 125-0137.
- Khavari Nejad, A. (2006), “Productivity Indicators of Iran Economy, Iranian Economic Accounts Quarterly”, V 1, N 1, 24- 39.
- Rafati, M and Najafi, B. (2006), “Determination of the Rate of Wheat Seed Improvement Research in Fars Province”, Agricultural Economics and Development, V 4, N 15, 9- 33.
- Rafati , M and Najafi, B. (2006), “Determination of the Rate of Wheat Seed Improvement Research in Fars Province, Agricultural Economics and Development, V 4, N 15, 9- 23.
- Rahmani Karami, S. (1999), “Economic evaluation of blue-wheat plan, Master's thesis, Faculty of Economic & Political Sciences”, Shahid Beheshti University.
- Shahbazi, H. (2012),” Economic Evaluation of Agricultural Research in Iran”, Ph.D., Faculty of Economics and Agricultural Development, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran.
- Shahnavazi, A and Hoseyni, S. (2011), “Evaluating the Economic Interest of Researching and Promoting Almond Cultivars in Iran, Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, V 24, N 2, 263- 274.
- Safari, K. (2010), “Measuring Productivity under Iranian Agriculture Sectors”, Faculty of Economics and Agricultural Development, Master's Degree Program, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources of Tehran University.
- Mafi, H and Arzandeh, S. (2009), “Investigating the Total Productivity of Production Factors Under the Iranian Agriculture Sectors”, Proceedings of the 7th Conference on Agricultural Economics, Iran Agricultural Economics Association, Karaj, Iran.
- Mehrabi, M. (2009), “The evolution of research credit in the country”, the Center for Research Policy Science of the country.
- Deputy Director General for Strategic Planning and Control (various years), Budget Law, Tehran.
- Nuri Naeini, M. (1986), “The Role of Research in Agricultural Development, Planning and Development”, N 7, 29- 39.
- Vajdani Tehrani, H and Razini Rahmani, A. (2000), “The Effect of Agricultural Research Costs on Value and Productivity”, Proceedings of the Third Conference on Agricultural Economics, Iranian Agricultural Economics Association, Mashhad, Iran.
- Yazdi Samadi, B. (1988), “The role and importance of research on self-sufficiency of agricultural products”, Proceedings of the First National Congress on Agricultural Development, Agricultural Research Organization, Tehran, Iran.
- Akaike, H. (1973), “Information Theory and an Extension of the Maximum Likelihood Principle”, Second, International Symposium on Information Theory, Budapest: Akademiai Kiado.
- Alston, J, M. (2000), “Spillovers”, Australian Journal of Agricultural Recourse Economics, 46(3):315–46.
- Alston, J, C, Chan-Kang, M, Marra, P, Pardey & and T, Wyatt, (2000), a Meta-Analysis of Rates of Return to Agricultural R&D: Ex Pede Herculem?, Research Report No. 1 13, International Food Policy Research Institute, WashingtonDC.
- Alston, J M, P G, Pardey, J S, James & M A, Andersen, (2010), the Economics of Agricultural R&D, Annual Review of Resource Economics, 1: 537-565.
- Araji, A A, F C White & J F Guenthner. (1995), “Spillovers and the Returns to Agricultural Research for Potatoes”, Journal of Agricultural Resource Economics, 20(2):263–76.
- Beintema, N, G J, Stads, K, Fuglie & P Heisey, (2012), ASTI Global Assessment of Agricultural R&D Spending Developing: Countries Accelerate Investment, International Food Policy Research Institute, 1-24.
- Davidson, R, & J G, MacKinnon, (1993), Estimation and Inference in Econometrics, Oxford University Press.
- Ellis, F, (1992), Agricultural Policies in Developing Countries, Cambridge University Press
- Evenson, R E, & Y, Kislev, (1973), Research and Productivity in Wheat and Maize, Journal of Political Economic, 81:1309–29.
- Griliches, Z, (1958), Research Costs and Social Returns: Hybrid Corn and Related Innovations, Journal of Political Economic, 66(5):419–31.
- Griliches, Z, (1964), Research Expenditures, Education and the Aggregate Agricultural Production Function, American Economic Review, 54(6):961–74.
- Hoggblade, S, (2007), Returns to Investment in Agriculture, Policy Synthesis Food Security Research Project-Zambia, No.19 (available at http://wwwaec.msu.edu/agecon/fs2/zambia/index.htm).
- Hosseini, S S, E, Hassanpour & S Y, Sadeghian, (2009), an Economic Evaluation of Iranian Public Agricultural R&D Policy: The Case of Sugar beet, Research Policy, 38: 1446-1452.
- Huffman, W E & R E, Evenson, (1993), Science for Agriculture: A Long-Term Perspective, Ames, IA: Iowa State Univ. Press.
- Kealey, T ,(1996), The Economic Laws of Scientific Research, St. Martin’s Press, New York.
- Kiani, A K, M, Iqbak & T, Javad, (2008), Total Factor Productivity and Agricultural Research Relationship: Evidence from Crops Sub-Sector of Pakistan’s Punjab, European Journal of Scientific Research, 23 (21). 87-97.
- Maredia, M K, R, Ward & D, Byerlee, (1996), Econometric Estimation of a Global Spillover Matrix for Wheat Varietal Technology, Agricultural Economics, 14:159–73.
- Norton, G W & J S, Davis, (1981), Evaluating Returns to Agricultural Research: A Review, American Journal of agricultural Economics, 63(4):685–99.
- Thomas, G, G, Fox, J, Brinkman, J, Oxley, R, Gill & B, Junkins, (2001), an Economic Analysis of the Returns to Canadian Swine Research: 1974-97, Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 49:153-180.
- Pasour, Jr E C & M A, Johnson. (1982), “Bureaucratic Productivity: the Case of Agricultural Research Revisited”, Public Choice, 39 (2): 301-317.
- Pardey, P G & N M, Beintema. (2001), “Slow Magic: Agricultural R&D a Century after Mendel, Food Policy Report”, Washington D.C.
- Pardey, P G, J M, Alston & R R, (2006), Agricultural R&D in the Developing World: Too Little, Too Late? Washington, DC: International Food Policy Resource Institution.
- Pardey, P G & J M, Alston. (2010), “US Agricultural Research in a Global Food Security Setting”, A Report of the CSIS Task Force on Food Security, Center for Strategic and International Studies.
- Peterson, W L, (1967), Returns to Poultry Research in the United States, Journal of Farm Economics, 49:656-669.
- Salami, H, (1996), Productivity and Technical Change in Iranian Crop Sector, Ph.D Dissertation, University of Alberta.
- Solow, R. (1957), “Technical Change and Aggregate Production Function”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 39 (2), 312-320
- Schultz, T W. (1953), “The Economic Organization of Agriculture”, New York: McGraw-Hill.
- Schwarz, G, (1978), Estimating the Dimension of a Model, Annals of Statistics, 6: 461-464.
- Theil, H, (1981), Economic Forecasts and Policy, 2nd Edition, Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Co.
- Traxler, G & D, Byerlee. (2001), “Linking Technical Change to Research Effort: an Examination of Aggregation and Spillovers Effects”, Agricultural Economics, 24:235–46.
- White, F C & J Jr, Havlicek. (1981), “Optimal Expenditure for Agricultural Research and Extension: Implication of Underfunding”, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 47-55.
- World Bank 2007 and 2014, World Bank Agricultural Research by Region, Washington,D.C. (available at http://www.worldbank.org/ data/ online database. html).