تاثیر زیرساخت های حمل و نقل شهری بر رفتار انتخاب خودروی شخصی مبتنی بر رویکرد پویایی سیستم
لادن شاه حسيني
1
(
دانشجوی دکتری گروه مدیریت صنعتی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
)
رضا رادفر
2
(
استاد گروه مدیریت صنعتی ،واحد علوم وتحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
)
عباس طلوعی اشلقی
3
(
استاد گروه مدیریت صنعتی ،واحد علوم وتحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
)
کلید واژه: حمل و نقل عمومی, خودرو محوری, رفتار سفر, طراحی, مدل پویایی سیستم,
چکیده مقاله :
رفتار سفر افراد با انتخاب یکی از شیوه های سفر نمود پیدا می کند و تحت تاثیر عوامل مختلفی است. عواملی که منجر به انتخاب شیوه سفر با خودروی شخصی می گردد منجر به بروز مشکلاتی می شود لذا سیاست گذاری جهت تغییر رفتار سفر شهروندان از سفر با خودروی شخصی و تشویق آنان برای سفر با حمل و نقل عمومی از قبیل اتوبوس مهم و هدف این پژوهش است. جهت تحقق این هدف، پژوهش حاضر به بررسی رفتار سفر شهروندان تهرانی در یک مدل شبیه سازی پویایی سیستم، می پردازد. در این راستا، پس از شناسایی متغیرهای اصلی اثر گذار بر شیوه سفر شهروندان از طریق مطالعات کتابخانه ای و مصاحبه با خبرگان، فرضیه های مدل مشخص گردید و سپس با ترسیم نمودار علت و معلولی و حالت و جریان مدل، معادلات ریاضی مربوطه مشخص و اعتبار مدل تست گردید. در ادامه سیاست های مرتبط با سه متغیر تعداد اتوبوس بی‌آر‌تی، دسترسی به اتوبوس بی‌آر‌تی و ظرفیت پارکینگ در قالب چند سناریو اجرا شد، نتایج نشان داد افزایش نرخ ساخت پارکینگ نتایج مطلوبی، ندارد. همچنین افزایش تعداد ناوگان اتوبوس بی‌آر‌تی چه در شرایط جاری و چه همزمان با شرایط کاهش یا افزایش نرخ ساخت پارکینگ، نمی تواند نقش موثری داشته باشد. از طرفی کاهش نرخ ساخت پارکینگ به تنهایی نتایج مطلوبی در پی دارد. در مقابل افزایش تعداد ایستگاه های بی‌آر‌تی نسبت به شرایط موجود نتایج مطلوبی دارد و اجرای این سناریو همزمان با سناریوی کاهش نرخ ساخت پارکینگ بهترین سناریو در بین سناریوها است.
چکیده انگلیسی :
People's travel behavior is manifested by choosing one of the travel methods and is influenced by various factors, travel by private car lead to problems, therefore, policy making to change the travel behavior of citizens from traveling by private car to travel by buses is important and the purpose of this research. So that, the present study examines the travel behavior of Tehran citizens in a system dynamics simulation model. So, after identifying the main variables affecting the way of travel through library studies and interviews with experts, the hypotheses of the model were determined, and then by drawing the cause and effect diagram and the state and flow of the model, the relevant mathematical equations were determined and validated. The model was tested. In the following, policies related to the three variables of the number of BRT buses, access to BRT buses and parking capacity were implemented in the form of several scenarios, the results showed that increasing the rate of parking construction does not have favorable results. Also, the increase in the number of BRT bus fleet cannot have an effective role either in the current situation or simultaneously with the conditions of reducing or increasing the rate of parking construction. Reducing the rate of parking alone has favorable results. Also, increasing the number of BRT stations has favorable results, and the implementation of this scenario at the same time as the scenario of reducing the rate of parking is the best scenario among the scenarios.
Keywords: Public transportation, car-oriented, travel behavior, design, system dynamics model
1.Introduction
The use of private cars has become a major issue for cities around the world due to its externalities, mainly in congestion and environmental pollution. Achieving sustainability in transportation and continuing economic development requires the behavior of reducing the use of private cars and increasing dependence on public transportation. In Tehran, according to the obtained statistics, the demand for daily trips, the share of rides, the demand for daily car trips and the number of private cars used per day are increasing. The current statistical situation indicates the importance of the efforts of planners and policy makers in this area; In fact, travel planning seeks to create a balance between travel supply and demand, the first of which depends on the capacity of the transportation network and the second on the amount of travel produced by travelers. Knowing the travel demand helps the planners of this area to develop the necessary infrastructure according to the actual demand or to use the maximum capacity of the existing transportation network. Understanding the factors affecting the choice of public transport travel method is very necessary for the purpose of transport planning. Therefore, this article specifically examines the long-term effect of travel supply policies (parking capacity, access to BRT stations and BRT fleet). has studied the competitive behavior between choose of private cars and BRT buses in Tehran.
- Literature review
In recent years, different studies have been conducted in relation to the influencing factors on the decision-making regarding the choice of travel method. Zhou and his colleagues (2023) investigated the necessary policies to reduce the use of private vehicles for travel in an urban area in the Netherlands using an activity-based travel demand model. The results showed the improvement of public transportation services and the small transportation network, increases the potential of displacement hubs in terms of making displacement more stable. Also, limiting parking capacity and increasing parking costs in city centers is especially useful for reducing the use of vehicles. McSlan and Sperry (2023) investigated the relationship between parking requirements and car ownership in Swedish municipalities. The results of this study showed that reducing parking minimums can be an effective policy to reduce car ownership. Khosravi and his colleagues (2020) used system dynamics modeling to evaluate transportation demand management policies in the center of Isfahan city. In this research, incentive and restriction policies were investigated in the central commercial area of Isfahan city. Effective transportation policies were implemented for ten years and were ranked based on three indicators of air pollution, energy consumption and traffic flow. The results showed that completing the metro network development, BRT network development, improving bicycle facilities, road pricing, increasing parking prices, improving bus services, improving taxi services, even and odd policy and encouraging car sharing are among the most effective policies in the center of the Isfahan.
- Method
The present study aims to provide a dynamic simulation model of the travel behavior of Tehran citizens with the help of modeling tools, in order to conduct a more detailed analysis of the citizens' behaviors in choosing the travel method and its consequences, and to help improve the behavioral anomalies by the policy makers in the field of transportation. In this research, the research method used in terms of purpose was descriptive, modeling. Also, the variables describing the behavior of choosing the travel method were identified based on the research literature and experts' opinions, and were simulated in a system dynamics model that allows the examination of different policies over time. This research was conducted in Tehran city and the data collected in Tehran city transportation organization regarding the share of Tehran citizens traveling by private car and BRT bus during the period of 2011 to 2021 was used. Since the system dynamics method consists of 5 steps, the model presented in this research was based on its steps. The first step in this process is to identify the problem and its boundaries, in this step, the reference variable and its past behavior are also examined, according to this step, the number of private cars was identified as the main issue and problem that this research follows to reduce it, the second step is to create dynamic hypotheses. In this step, the main variables affecting the problem are examined and the boundary of the model is determined. In this regard, after reviewing the research literature and studying its background, a semi-structured questionnaire was used to get the experts' opinions in such a way that the experts were asked the main questions at the beginning, and during the question and answer process, new questions were asked according to the conditions. They were asked during of the meeting, and by using the opinions of subject matter experts, research variables were collected and completed in the next stages. Using the theoretical foundations of research and experts' opinions, and with the understanding of the problem, cause and effect circles were designed and gradually a complete diagram of cause and effect circles was created so that in the end a simple picture of the real world was formed. In this regard, one of the influential factors in the formation of the undesirable behavior of choosing a private car is the high attractiveness of the private car. After hypothesizing, key variables in the form of independent variables include (parking capacity, number of BRT bus fleet and number of BRT bus stations) and dependent variable (the number of private cars used per day) and how they affect each other were investigated and thus the cause and effect circles were drawn. The next step is to simulate the model in the relevant software, when the main hypotheses and the system boundary are formed, the model will be able to be implemented, then by entering the mathematical equations and identifying the accumulation, rate and auxiliary variables, the accumulation-flow diagram is presented. Finally, the model was simulated and implemented. By analyzing the changes in the behavior of the model in the past and comparing it with what actually happened in the past, the validation of the model was done to validate the prediction of the behavior of the model in the future in order to implement the last step. In this research, the status of the error index and the coefficient of determination of 97% indicate the validity of the model for predicting the future behavior of the model. Also, one of the other measures required to validate the sensitivity analysis model is the implementation of different scenarios. Other validation tests, including the structural evaluation test, system boundary adequacy test, dimensional consistency test, equation logic test, and model behavior prediction test are performed and had acceptable results.
- Result
After simulating and examining the behavior of the model components in the desired thirty-year period, the values of the different variables of the model were changed and their effects were analyzed on the main desired variable, which is the number of private cars used per day. In addition, the time step of model 1 and the time unit of the year were defined. By changing the values of parking construction rate, BRT bus purchase rate and the number of BRT bus stations, eight scenarios were compiled. The outputs of Vensim software regarding the first scenario or the increase in the rate of parking construction showed that the trend of the number of private cars has increased significantly with the increase in the rate of parking construction. In the case of the second scenario or the reduction of the parking construction rate, the results indicated that the trend of the number of private cars will increase at a slower rate than the current situation with the reduction of the parking construction rate. In the third scenario, increasing the parking rate and increasing the BRT bus purchase rate at the same time after simulation, it was observed that the simultaneous application of increasing the parking rate and increasing the BRT bus purchase rate leads to an increase in the number of private cars. Of course, the increasing slope of the number of private cars in case of simultaneous application of the changes did not change significantly compared to when only the parking rate was increased. In relation to the fourth scenario or the increase in the purchase rate of BRT buses, the simulation results showed that the trend of the number of private cars in the conditions of increasing the purchase rate of BRT buses is not different from the existing conditions, and this means that with the increase in the purchase rate of BRT buses, the number of private cars It is still increasing with the same slope of the existing conditions. In connection with the fifth scenario, or reducing the parking rate and increasing the BRT bus purchase rate at the same time after applying the changes in the simulation, it was observed that the simultaneous application of reducing the parking rate and increasing the BRT bus purchase rate led to an increase in the number of private cars with the slope is less than the existing conditions. In the sixth scenario or increasing the number of BRT stations, the results also showed that with the increase in the number of BRT stations, the trend of the number of private cars has increased with a lower slope than before the addition of the number of BRT stations. Also, in connection with the seventh scenario, or increasing the rate of parking construction and increasing the number of BRT bus stations at the same time, after performing the simulation, it was observed that the simultaneous application of increasing the rate of parking construction and increasing the number of BRT stations has led to an increase in the number of private cars. In this case, the increasing trend of the number of private cars compared to the time when only the rate of parking construction increases did not change significantly and a slight improvement was made. In the eighth scenario, it was observed that reducing the rate of parking construction and increasing the number of BRT bus stations at the same time after applying the changes in the simulation. The slope is lower than the existing conditions, which resulted in the best results compared to the other seven scenarios.
- Discuss
The practical results of the current research show that in the current situation, we need to improve access to the BRT buses stations more than we need to increase the BRT bus fleet. Also, buying a BRT bus and building a parking at the same time cannot improve the reduction of the number of private cars. This issue is important for city planners because the simultaneous application of the two policies of building a parking and buying a BRT bus will not improve the behavior of choosing a BRT bus. as long as the time of searching for parking is reduced due to the construction of the parking and the car is still attractive, buying a BRT bus will not help to change the behavior of choosing a private car. In the end, it is mentioned that the practical results obtained show that choosing the BRT bus travel mode compared to a private car is only possible when, in addition to strengthening the BRT bus infrastructure, we do not develop car infrastructure. Helping the managers of different areas of the municipality to observe the effects of independent policies is one of the other practical results of this research, because the results of the model showed that contradictory decisions can lead to the loss of desirable results and the imposition of heavy costs.
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