بررسی نیازهای جمعیت سالمند ایران در مناطق و گروه های مختلف جمعیتی تا 1420 و نقش آن در توسعه اجتماعی
محورهای موضوعی :
مطالعات توسعه اجتماعی ایران
جواد دیندار فرکوش
1
,
شهلا کاظمی پور ثابت
2
,
حمید انصاری
3
1 - گروه علوم اجتماعی، واحد تهران مرکزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
2 - گروه علوم اجتماعی، واحد تهران مرکزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
3 - گروه جامعه شناسی، واحد تهران مرکزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.
تاریخ دریافت : 1400/12/16
تاریخ پذیرش : 1401/03/16
تاریخ انتشار : 1401/12/01
کلید واژه:
توسعه اجتماعی,
سالمندی,
نیازهای سالمندان,
رشد تعداد سالمندان,
چکیده مقاله :
هدف این تحقیق پیش بینی نیازهای جمعیت سالمند ایران در مناطق و گروه های مختلف جمعیتی تا سال 1420 و نقش آن در توسعه اجتماعی است . روش تحقیق ترکیبی از دو روش کمی (تحلیل ثانوی) و اسنادی بوده، در "بخش کمی پیش بینی روند سالمندی جمعیت با استفاده از نتایج سرشماری سال های 95-1365 از طریق روش ترکیبی و با استفاده از جدول ضرایب بقاء سازمان ملل و برآوردهای انجام شده توسط مرکز آمار ایران و روش های جمعیت شناختی" محاسبه شده و برای "برآورد نیازهای مختلف جمعیت سالمندان از اسناد و مدارک معتبر آماری و سپس از روش های محاسباتی جمعیتی" استفاده شد. براساس نظریه های مطرح شده، توسعه اقتصادی و همچنین وارداتی بودن تجهیزات پزشکی در کشور های در حال توسعه، موجب کاهش میزان مرگ و میر و باروری و افزایش امید زندگی و تغییرات اساسی در ساختار سنی جمعیت گردید و این امر در بدو تولد در مراحل اولیه گذار جمعیتی منجر به افزایش جمعیت و در مراحل پایانی باعث افزایش جمعیت سالخورده می گردد. در حوزه نیازهای سالمندان نیز نظریات مطرح شده مورد بررسی قرار گرفت که درآمد، بیمه درمانی، آموزش، حامی اجتماعی و مسکن به عنوان مهمترین نیازهای سالمندان در مناطق و گروه مختلف جمعیتی تا سال 1420 مورد پیش بینی قرار گرفته اند و از آن جهت که هدف اصلی توسعه اجتماعی ارتقاء سطح زندگی افراد و کیفیت زندگی مردم است، شناسایی نیازهای سالمندان تاثیر بسزایی در توسعه اجتماعی خواهد داشت.
چکیده انگلیسی:
The purpose of this study is to predict the needs of the elderly population of Iran in differentregions and population groups until 1420 and its role in social development. The research method is acombination of two methods: quantitative (secondary analysis) and documentary. "Calculated by theStatistics Center of Iran and demographic methods" and "statistically valid documents and thendemographic calculation methods" were used to "estimate the different needs of the elderlypopulation." According to the theories, economic development as well as the import of medicalequipment in developing countries, reduced mortality and fertility and increased life expectancy andfundamental changes in the age structure of the population, and this at birth in the early stages.Demographic transition leads to population growth and in the final stages increases the elderlypopulation. In the field of needs of the elderly, the theories were examined that income, healthinsurance, education, social support and housing are predicted as the most important needs of theelderly in different regions and population groups until 1420, and because the goal The main thing insocial development is to improve people's living standards and quality of life, identifying the needs ofthe elderly will have a significant impact on social development.
منابع و مأخذ:
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Afshar kohan, j & Et all.(2014). Social development and population aging; Crisis or opportunity to explore the global dimensions of aging and social development. Proceedings of the Third Iranian Islamic Model of Progress Conference. P 59, 64, 76.(Persian)
Abdi, S & Et all. (2019). Understanding the care and support needs of older people: a scoping review and categorisation using the WHO international classification of functioning, disability and health framework (ICF), Canadian Geriatrics Journal , vol. 19, nu 195.P61.
Bazrafshan, sh. (2016). Global conference on new horizons in humanities, future studies & empowerment, 2016 Januray 28, anzali, Iran. P4. (Persian)
Dehghani, B & Et all. (2020). The Impact of Population Aging on the Future of Iran's Pension System. Journal Demographic studies, Volume 6, nu 1, spring & summer 2020. P261. (Persian)
Dashtban farouji, M & Et all. (2020). Iranian Journal of Economic Issues, volume 7, nu 1, spring & summer 2020. P59.(Persian)
Dabirkhaneh shorayeh melli salmandan, (2020), sanad melli salmandan. (Persian)
Ebad elahi, H. (2002). Journal of Family Counseling, nu 21. P3, 4.(Persian)
Gholipour, Z & Et all. (2019). Factors affecting the provision of active geriatric services in Iran. journal Health management, Volume2, nu 2, Summer 2019. P 62.(Persian)
Hosseini, se & Et all. (2020). Designing a social development model influenced by the social capital of Arak metropolis with emphasis on Putnam theory. Journal Political Studies, issue 59, winter 2020. P70.(Persian)
Isa lou, sh & Et all. (2015). Needs and problems of the elderly in urban areas (streets of the central part of Qom). Journal Social work, vol 2,nu 6.P1,2.(Persian)
Kosheshi, M. (2011). Social support networks, living arrangements and health of the elderly in the context of population transition: A study in Tehran. Journal Social Science Month Book, nu 42. P109.(Persian)
Kazemi,N & Et all. (2019). Quality of life of Iranian elderly. Journal salmand, vol 3, nu 5.P518.(Persian)
Miri,F & Et all.(2019). Analysis of factors affecting the promotion of life expectancy in the elderly. Journal social welfare quarterly, vol 19, nu 73, summer 2019.P301.(Persian)
Markaz amar Iran. ( 1956-2016) .(Persian)
Navabakhsh, M & Et all. (2017). The role of modern social networks in cultural development, a case study of Malekan city in summer 2017. Journal Social Development of Iran, winter 2017, volume 10, nu 1.P56.(Persian)
Nabavi, S & Et all. (2009). Investigating the effect of social support on the general health of the elderly. Journal Sociology of Iran, volume 10, nu 4. p5.(Persian)
Parvin, S & Et all. (2019). The effect of population aging on income distribution inequality in Iran. Journal Demographic studies, nu 9, spring & summer 2019. P 103. (Persian)
Shariat, F & Et all.(2015). Investigating the cultural, social, economic, welfare and urban needs of the members of the Tehran Elderly Center. Journal salmand, vol. 10, nu 3.P8. (Persian)
Shiri, m. rostami, E. (2018). Economic, social and demographic characteristics of the elderly based on the general population and housing census data 2016 , pazhohesh kadeh amar iran.(Persian)
Tirgar, H., kafaei, S. (2015). Assess the needs of the elderly. 5th international conference on Economics management & agricultural sciences. July, 22, 2015, anzali, Iran. P1. (Persian)
Zargami, E & Et all. (2015). Environmental features effective in increasing the quality of life of nursing home residents, Journal Iran's architecture, nu 7, spring & summer 2015. P117.(Persian)
