Fuzzy model of hesitant decision making in evaluating business plans under uncertainty (an approach to developing new products)

Subject Areas : Urban Planning

Amir  Bahramipour ¹ (Department of Industrial Management, Qazvin Branch, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin, Iran)
Sadegh  Abedi ² (Department of Industrial Management, Qazvin Branch, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin, Iran)
Alireza  Irajpour ³ (Department of Industrial Management, Qazvin Branch, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin, Iran)

Received: 2022-12-18 Accepted : 2023-06-20 Published : 2024-09-01

Keywords: decision making, Fuzzy model, product development, Dynamic Model,

Abstract :

The current research was conducted with the aim of designing a Intuitionistic fuzzy model of hesitant decision making in the evaluation of business plans under conditions of uncertainty as an approach for the development of new products while various researches have been conducted on the development of new products based on innovation. According to the previous researches, decision-making in the uncertain environment for choosing exogenous variables of the business development model based on the development of new products was not observed. Also in the evaluation of economic plans, the parameters are usually considered as certain whereas the investigation of uncertainty is considerably important. In this research, the main goal is to investigate and find factors affecting the feasibility of new product development plans and finally to obtain a method for evaluating new product development plans. For this purpose, 12 people were selected from the elite community and experts of the chemical industry using the theoretical purposeful sampling method. The results of Intuitionistic fuzzy analysis have shown that 6 exogenous variables were chosen as key variables in the selection and development of a new product in the organization. In this research, Intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy method has been used to determine the importance of exogenous variables that experts have applied in determining their importance. The significant importance of exogenous variables are the rate of certainty of investment in product development (0.239), new product acceptance share in the market (0.275), new product development strategy (0.209), attracting funds for applied research factor (0.077), passing standards and requirements (0.136), and funding for product development research (0.061). The dynamic product development model, which is based on the cause and effect relationship needs to be designed and tested in future studies to simulate the current and future decision-making performance..

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