بررسی تأثیر انواع خدمات بهداشتی و درمانی بر رشد اقتصادی ایران با استفاده از روش هم انباشتگی یوهانسن - جوسیلیوس

محورهای موضوعی : -مدارک پزشکی

ابراهیم قائد ¹ , محمد طاهر احمدی شادمهری ² , مژگان مرادی ³ , محمدصادق محمدی ⁴

1 - دانشجوی دکتری رشته اقتصاد، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران
2 - دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران
3 - کارشناسی ارشد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه صنعتی شاهرود، شاهرود، ایران
4 - دانشجوی دکتری رشته اقتصاد، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

تاریخ دریافت : 1398/12/13 تاریخ پذیرش : 1399/03/01 تاریخ انتشار : 1399/03/01

کلید واژه: روش یوهانسن - جوسیلیوس, تصحیح خطا, خدمات بهداشتی و درمانی, رشد اقتصادی,

چکیده مقاله :

مقدمه: یکی از مهمترین پارامترهای مؤثر در جهت ارتقای سطح تولید و رشد اقتصادی ایران نقش بخش خدمات بهداشتی و درمانی و شاخص‌های مربوط به آن است، در این زمینه بررسی‌های زیادی انجام شده است ولی تاثیر تفکیک همزمان انواع خدمات بهداشتی و درمانی بر رشد اقتصادی ایران بررسی صورت نگرفته است. لذا ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺖ اثرات شاخص‌های بهداشتی و درمانی ﻭ ﻧﻴﺎﺯﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ به آن، به سیاست‌گذاران حوزه بهداشت کمک می‌کند تا بدانند اثر کدام شاخص خدمات بهداشتی و درمانی بر رشد بیشتر است تا آن را جهت سرمایه گذاری در اولویت قرار دهند. هدف اصلی پژوهش، بررسی تأثیر انواع خدمات بهداشتی و درمانی بر رشد اقتصادی ایران است. روش پژوهش: این مطالعه از لحاظ روش علّی - تحلیلی و از نظر هدف؛ کاربردی بوده و روش جمع‌آوری اطلاعات نیز از نوع اسنادی کتابخانه‌ای است. برای تحلیل موضوع از الگوی خودتوضیح برداری، روش یوهانسن - جوسیلیوس و روش تصحیح خطا استفاده شد. داده‌های بدست آمده با استفاده از نرم افزار Eviews در طی دوره 1396-1360مورد تجزیه و تحلیل قرار گرفت.. یافته‌ها: یافته‌ها بر اساس ضریب جمله تصحیح خطا، حاکی از آن است که در هر دوره حدود 0/86 از عدم تعادل کوتاه مدت، برای رسیدن به تعادل بلندمدت، تعدیل می‌شود و می‌توان بیان داشت که در بلندمدت، یک درصد افزایش در متغیرهای نیروی کار، بهره‌وری نیروی کار، نرخ رشد جمعیت، نسبت سرمایه‌گذاری به تولید ناخالص داخلی و انواع خدمات بهداشتی و درمانی (هزینه بهداشت، هزینه درمان، هزینه آموزش و نسبت بیمه)، به ترتیب باعث افزایش0/67، 1/77، 0/88، 1/12، 5/43، 3/02، 4/85 و 2/09 درصد در رشد اقتصادی می‌شوند. نتیجه‌گیری: باتوجه به نتایج بدست آمده از پژوهش، از آنجا که هزینه بهداشت در مقایسه با سایرخدمات بهداشتی و درمانی بیشترین اثر را بر رشد اقتصادی دارد؛ می‌تواند به برنامه‌ریزان و سیاست‌گذاران کلان کشور کمک نماید تا نگاه خود را به نحوه تخصیص هزینه‌ها در بخش بهداشت کشور تغییر دهند و بهداشت را نوعی کالای سرمایه‌ای به حساب آورند و در این زمینه بیشتر سرمایه‌گذاری کنند تا باعث رشد اقتصادی و توسعه کشور درآینده شود.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Introduction: One of the most important parameters for improving the level of GDP and economic growth in Iran is the role of the health services sector and its related indicators. In this regard, many studies have been conducted, but the effect of simultaneous separation types of health services on the economic growth of Iran has not been studied. It would be helpful for policymakers to study the health indices in order to recognize the health-care index that has the greatest impact on growth and prioritize it for investment. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of Types of health services on the economic growth of Iran. Methods: This study is causal analytical in terms of the method and it is also the applied research in terms of purpose. The method of data collection is documenting – library. For this analysis, Vector Autoregressive Model, Johansson - Juselius Method and Vector Error Correction Model are used. Data collected for the period of 1981 - 2017 Were estimated by Eviews software.  Results: Based on the coefficient of the error correction method indicates that about 0.86 of the short-term imbalance is adjusted in each period to achieve the long-term equilibrium. Further, in the long run, a one percentage increase in the Labor force, labor productivity, population growth rate, ratio of investment to GDP and the of types health care services ( health costs, cost of treatment, cost of education and insurance ratio), leads to 0.67, 1.77, 0.88, 1.12, 5.43, 3.02, 4.85 and 2.09 percentage increase in the GDP, respectively. Conclusion: Health cost has the most effects on economic growth in comparison with other health care services. This result could help policymakers to modify their policies in allocation of expenditures in different sectors of health services and to highlight the investment in this field in order to achieve economic growth and development in the future.

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