بررسی تاثیر مصرف انرژی و رشد اقتصادی بر انتشار دی‌اکسیدکربن: داده‌های تابلویی فضایی
محورهای موضوعی :
اقتصاد محیط زیست
هدایت حسین زاده
1
(گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران. *(مسوول مکاتبات))
مهدی مرادی
2
(گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران.)
تاریخ دریافت : 1397/08/30
تاریخ پذیرش : 1398/10/02
تاریخ انتشار : 1402/02/01
کلید واژه:
داده‌های تابلویی فضایی,
انتشار دی‌اکسیدکربن,
رشد اقتصادی,
مصرف انرژی,
چکیده مقاله :
زمینه و هدف: از آنجا که مصرف روز افزون انرژی‌های فسیلی به صورت روزمره افزایش یافته است و مصرف انرژی و به تبع آن انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای مشکلات زیادی را در جهان از جمله بالا رفتن سریع دما ایجاد کرده است. لذا مطالعه تاثیر ابعاد اقتصادی بر انتشار گازهای گلخانه ای ازاهمیت بالایی برخوردار می باشد. در این مطالعه به بررسی تاثیر مصرف انرژی و رشد اقتصادی بر انتشار دی اکسیدکربن در کشورهای منطقه منا طی دوره 2014- 1995 با در نظر گرفتن اثرات همسایگی پرداخته می شود. زیرا انتشار گازهای گلخانه ای در هر کشور نه تنها تابعی از عوامل موجود در داخل کشور بوده، بلکه تابعی از کشورهای همسایه نیز می باشد.روش بررسی: به منظور بررسی تاثیر مصرف انرژی، رشد اقتصادی و انتشار دی اکسیدکربن برای کشورهای خاورمیانه و شمال آفریقا ابتدا از آزمون LM برای بررسی وجود وابستگی فضایی استفاده شد و سپس مدل تحقیق با استفاده از روش رهیافت داده های تابلویی فضایی مورد تخمین قرار گرفت.یافته ها: یافته های حاصل از برآورد مدل نشان می دهد که اثرات همسایگی در مدل مورد مطالعه تایید شده است. همچنین نتایج بیانگر این است که متغیر لگاریتم مصرف انرژی دارای تاثیر مثبت و معنی داری بر انتشار CO2 دارد. متغیر لگاریتم درآمد سرانه دارای تاثیر مثبت و معنی دار و متغیر مجذور لگاریتم درآمد سرانه دارای تاثیر منفی و معنی داری بر انتشار دی اکسیدکربن دارند.بحث و نتیجه گیری: براساس نتایج تحقیق فرضیه زیست محیطی کوزنتس برای کشورهای مورد بررسی برقرار می باشد. بنابراین می توان کاهش مصرف انرژی را به عنوان راهی جهت کاهش آلودگی پیشنهاد نمود. با در نظر گرفتن اثر تکنولوژی، دو راهبرد می تواند مطرح شود: یکی ارتقای فن آوری استفاده از انرژی های فسیلی جهت افزایش کارایی انرژی و کاهش آلودگی و دیگری استفاده بیشتر از حامل های انرژی تجدیدپذیر و سوخت های پاک می باشد.
چکیده انگلیسی:
Background and Objective: Energy is one of the most important inputs in production. Energy usage and energy diffusion of fossil fuels in process of production cause greenhouse gases (CO2) emission and destruction of environment. According to the importance of issues like energy usage and economic growth, this paper, concerning the effects of proximity, evaluates the effects of energy usage and economic growth on emission of Carbon dioxide (CO2) in MENA Zone countries during the period of 1994-2013. In every country, greenhouse gases (CO2) emission is the function of not only domestic factors but also economic activities of neighboring countries. Material and Methodology: In order to investigate the impact of energy consumption, economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions in the Middle East and North Africa, LM test was used to examine the spatial dependence between variables and then the research model was estimated using the spatial panel data approach.Findings: The results of the model estimation indicate that proximity effect is verified in the model studying on. Also, the results show that log variable of energy usage has positive and significant effect on CO2 emission. Log variable of income per capita affects CO2 emission positively and significantly, and square log variable of per capita income has negative and significant effect on dependent variable.Discussion and Conclusion: Based on the research results, the environmental hypothesis of Kuznets is accepted for the studied countries. Therefore, reducing energy consumption can be suggested as a way to reduce pollution. Taking into account the effect of technology, two strategies can be proposed: firstly, the improvement of the technology of using fossil energies to increase energy efficiency and reduce pollution, and secondly, the use of renewable energy carriers and clean fuels.
منابع و مأخذ:
Stern, D. I. (2004). Energy and Economic Growth. Rensselaer Working Paper, No 0410.
Goldin, Janowinters, L. Alan (2000), Sustainable Development Economy, Abdolreza rkanuddin Eftekhari and Gholamreza Azad Aramaki, Commercial Printing and Publishing Company, Tehran. (In Persian)
Falahi, Firouz, Asgharpour, Hossein, Behbodhi, Daoud and Pournazmi, Simin (2019), Kuznets environmental curve test in Iran using LSTAR method, Energy Economics Studies Quarterly, No. 32, pp. 73- 93. (In Persian)
Flores, C., Flores-Lagunes, A., and Kapetanakis, D. (2009). Lessons from Quantile Panel Estimation of the Environmental Kuznets Curve. International Conference on Panel Data at the University of Bonn.
Mohammadzadeh, Parviz, Pashari, Majid and Akbari, Akram (2019), testing the Kuznets environmental hypothesis in MENA countries, the first international conference on econometrics, methods and applications, Islamic Azad University, Sanandaj branch, 6-4 Shahrivar. (In Persian)
Anselin, L. (1988). Spatial Econometrics, Methods and Models. Kluer Academic, Boston.
Asghari Ali, Akbari Nematolah (2010) Spatial Econometric Methodology; Theory and Application, Human Sciences Research Journal of Isfahan University, Volume 12, Number 1-2; pp 93-122. (In Persian)
Maddison, D. (2006). Environmental Kuznets curves: A spatial econometric approach. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 51, 218-230.
Song, T., Zheng, T., and Tong, L. (2008). An empirical test of the environmental Kuznets curve in China: A panel cointegration approach. China Economic Review, 19, 381-392.
Liu, G. (2006), A causality analysis on GDP and air emissions in Norway, Statistics Norway, Research Department, Discussion Papers No. 447.
Asghari Ali, Akbari Nematolah (2010) Spatial Econometric Methodology; Theory and Application, Human Sciences Research Journal of Isfahan University, Volume 12, Number 1-2; pp 93-122. (In Persian)
Abbaspour, Majid (2008), Energy, environment and sustainable development. Tehran: Scientific Publications of Sharif University of Technology, Volumes 1 and 2, first edition. (In Persian)
Akbostanci, E., TurutAsik, S. and Tunc, I. (2009). The relationship between income and environment in Turkey: Is there an environmental Kuznets curve? Energy Policy, 37, 861-867.
Alam, S., Ambreen, F., and Muhammad, B. (2007). Sustainable development in Pakistan in the context of energy consumption demand and environmental degradation. Journal of Asian Economics, 18, 825-837.
Amirtimori, Somia and Khalilian, Sadegh (2008), Economic growth and CO2 emissions in OPEC member countries: Kuznets environmental curve approach, Journal of Environmental Sciences, No. 7, pp. 161-172. (In Persian)
Ang, J.B. (2007). CO2 emissions, energy consumption and output in France. Energy Policy, 35, 4772-4778.
Barua, A., and Hubacek, K. (2007). Water Pollution and Economic Growth: An Environmental Kuznets Curve Analysis at The Watershed and State Level, Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment University of Leeds. Leeds LS2 9JT, UK, PP. 1-25.
Barua, A., and Hubacek, K. (2009). An empirical analysis of the environmental Kuznets curve for water pollution in India. International Journal of Global Environmental Issues, 9(2), 50-68.
Behbodhi, Daoud, Fallahi, Firoz and Bargi Golazani, Ismail (2008), Economic and social factors affecting the per capita emission of carbon dioxide in Iran (2009-2008), Journal of Economic Research, No. 90, pp. 1-17. (In Persian)
Burnett, J.W. (2009). Economic Growth and Environmental Degradation. University of Georgia, NO. 30602.
Chiang Lee, C., Chia, Y. and Hung Sun, C. (2010). The environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis for water pollution: Do regions matter? Energy Policy, 38, 12-23.
Human Development Report (2009), United Nation Development Program, UN.
Pejhoyan, Jamshid and Murad-Hashil, Nilofar (2006), Investigating the effect of economic growth on air pollution, Economic Research Quarterly, 7th year, No. 4, pp. 141-160. (In Persian)
Qun, B., and Peng, Sh. (2006). Economic growth and environmental pollution: a panel data analysis, Chapter, 15, 294-313.
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Stern, D. I. (2004). Energy and Economic Growth. Rensselaer Working Paper, No 0410.
Goldin, Janowinters, L. Alan (2000), Sustainable Development Economy, Abdolreza rkanuddin Eftekhari and Gholamreza Azad Aramaki, Commercial Printing and Publishing Company, Tehran. (In Persian)
Falahi, Firouz, Asgharpour, Hossein, Behbodhi, Daoud and Pournazmi, Simin (2019), Kuznets environmental curve test in Iran using LSTAR method, Energy Economics Studies Quarterly, No. 32, pp. 73- 93. (In Persian)
Flores, C., Flores-Lagunes, A., and Kapetanakis, D. (2009). Lessons from Quantile Panel Estimation of the Environmental Kuznets Curve. International Conference on Panel Data at the University of Bonn.
Mohammadzadeh, Parviz, Pashari, Majid and Akbari, Akram (2019), testing the Kuznets environmental hypothesis in MENA countries, the first international conference on econometrics, methods and applications, Islamic Azad University, Sanandaj branch, 6-4 Shahrivar. (In Persian)
Anselin, L. (1988). Spatial Econometrics, Methods and Models. Kluer Academic, Boston.
Asghari Ali, Akbari Nematolah (2010) Spatial Econometric Methodology; Theory and Application, Human Sciences Research Journal of Isfahan University, Volume 12, Number 1-2; pp 93-122. (In Persian)
Maddison, D. (2006). Environmental Kuznets curves: A spatial econometric approach. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 51, 218-230.
Song, T., Zheng, T., and Tong, L. (2008). An empirical test of the environmental Kuznets curve in China: A panel cointegration approach. China Economic Review, 19, 381-392.
Liu, G. (2006), A causality analysis on GDP and air emissions in Norway, Statistics Norway, Research Department, Discussion Papers No. 447.
Asghari Ali, Akbari Nematolah (2010) Spatial Econometric Methodology; Theory and Application, Human Sciences Research Journal of Isfahan University, Volume 12, Number 1-2; pp 93-122. (In Persian)
Abbaspour, Majid (2008), Energy, environment and sustainable development. Tehran: Scientific Publications of Sharif University of Technology, Volumes 1 and 2, first edition. (In Persian)
Akbostanci, E., TurutAsik, S. and Tunc, I. (2009). The relationship between income and environment in Turkey: Is there an environmental Kuznets curve? Energy Policy, 37, 861-867.
Alam, S., Ambreen, F., and Muhammad, B. (2007). Sustainable development in Pakistan in the context of energy consumption demand and environmental degradation. Journal of Asian Economics, 18, 825-837.
Amirtimori, Somia and Khalilian, Sadegh (2008), Economic growth and CO2 emissions in OPEC member countries: Kuznets environmental curve approach, Journal of Environmental Sciences, No. 7, pp. 161-172. (In Persian)
Ang, J.B. (2007). CO2 emissions, energy consumption and output in France. Energy Policy, 35, 4772-4778.
Barua, A., and Hubacek, K. (2007). Water Pollution and Economic Growth: An Environmental Kuznets Curve Analysis at The Watershed and State Level, Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment University of Leeds. Leeds LS2 9JT, UK, PP. 1-25.
Barua, A., and Hubacek, K. (2009). An empirical analysis of the environmental Kuznets curve for water pollution in India. International Journal of Global Environmental Issues, 9(2), 50-68.
Behbodhi, Daoud, Fallahi, Firoz and Bargi Golazani, Ismail (2008), Economic and social factors affecting the per capita emission of carbon dioxide in Iran (2009-2008), Journal of Economic Research, No. 90, pp. 1-17. (In Persian)
Burnett, J.W. (2009). Economic Growth and Environmental Degradation. University of Georgia, NO. 30602.
Chiang Lee, C., Chia, Y. and Hung Sun, C. (2010). The environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis for water pollution: Do regions matter? Energy Policy, 38, 12-23.
Human Development Report (2009), United Nation Development Program, UN.
Pejhoyan, Jamshid and Murad-Hashil, Nilofar (2006), Investigating the effect of economic growth on air pollution, Economic Research Quarterly, 7th year, No. 4, pp. 141-160. (In Persian)
Qun, B., and Peng, Sh. (2006). Economic growth and environmental pollution: a panel data analysis, Chapter, 15, 294-313.
